[Travel] When do you think full scale international travel will open up again?

[Napper]

alot of the European Holidays from june / July . . .especially the boozy destinations that need the tourism massively

Back to normal totally - Early 2021

 

[ManOfSussex]

The last time I did - a couple of weeks or so ago, I opened up a "what's that plane" type app, and it was a Fedex cargo plane that had come from Memphis and was going to Paris.

Right now, as I post this, there is nothing over Sussex - https://www.flightradar24.com/50.98,0.53/10

Some Private Jet is currently over Ashford in Kent from Switzerland and that's the nearest thing in the air going by this.

 

[Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ]

Right now, as I post this, there is nothing over Sussex - https://www.flightradar24.com/50.98,0.53/10

Some Private Jet is currently over Ashford in Kent from Switzerland and that's the nearest thing in the air going by this.

Ali J's brother is about to SING!

 

[Bry Nylon]

The last time I did - a couple of weeks or so ago, I opened up a "what's that plane" type app, and it was a Fedex cargo plane that had come from Memphis and was going to Paris.

Elvis?

 

[Marshy]

I went 3-6 months but the latter part. October I would hope.

Not sure how many airlines will be left by then though.

 

[mr sheen]

As my partner is locked down in Ireland I am locked down in UK, I am hoping that there is some resumption between countries viewed as lower risk as soon as possible. And that UK and Ireland fall into that category.

 

[Change at Barnham]

It's interesting that in all the previous replies on this thread (unless I've missed it) that no one has mentioned travel insurance.
No insurance company will be offering to cover the expense of becoming ill with Covid-19.
Therefore until a vaccine becomes available it will only be chancers that wil travel long haul.
Within Europe cover will still be available via the reciprocal agreement of the E111 document until the end of this year.

So maybe European travel may be the first to recover but long haul will be after the vaccine emerges.
The travel industry will be on its knees for a long time.

*I work in travel, so hopefully the future is brighter than I anticipate and I may be able to work again before the vaccine.

 

[RossyG]

3-6 months.

 

[nicko31]

Full scale International travel will be a while, can see our first opportunity will probably be via ferry or Eurotunnel to somewhere in Europe

Flights on mass seem pretty high risk. Air travel looks to become more expensive with less choice, growth was out of control so might be a good thing for the planet at least

 

[Soylent Blue]

And yet our borders are still open to hot spots etc, 500 plus private owned planes in the last month.

 

[Surf's Up]

World wide international travel will only open up at the pace of the slowest country to eradicate the virus...so deep into 2021 is my guess

 

[Soylent Blue]

As my partner is locked down in Ireland I am locked down in UK, I am hoping that there is some resumption between countries viewed as lower risk as soon as possible. And that UK and Ireland fall into that category.

If applicable I would assume repatriations would be a priority, organised via embasseys and consulates.

 

[Denis]

I’m not holding out much hope, but I’ve got flights booked for Scotland in August (family wedding), Krakow in October and Barbados late November. Not sure if my annual travel insurance will want to cover three trips?

 

[wellquickwoody]

New Zealand is intent on wiping out the virus from their shores, and are well on the way to doing it.

To actually keep that status they will need to stop most international travel and physically quarantine those entering their country. This for a country whose biggest industry is tourism. Until a vaccine appears there will be no return to what was the norm.

 

[Springal]

alot of the European Holidays from june / July . . .especially the boozy destinations that need the tourism massively

Back to normal totally - Early 2021

Doubt it. Spanish are already planning on banning international travel, especially to the canaries or balerics. Only mainland Spanish ‘may’ be allowed.

France also likely to ban non-schengen flights through May / June (https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/c...francais-de-patienter-un-petit-peu-7800421125 ) BA always cancelled all flights to Paris until 22nd May in light of this

 

[dazzer6666]

World wide international travel will only open up at the pace of the slowest country to eradicate the virus...so deep into 2021 is my guess

Agree for full-scale (may not see this for years), but I think there will be progressive opening up - as countries become 'clear' or at least have things very much under control, travel will start to happen - for example travel between countries with similar status in terms of CV19 management/lockdown. The science on this is moving all the time - may look completely different in 6 months and we're all just speculating anyway

 

[maltaseagull]

I suspect never. At least, not back to where we were.

Obviously it will 'open up' again to some extent, and I hope that will mean that for smaller scale and flexible businesses (which I am hoping is you) there is a positive future.

But I cannot see things going back to where they in terms of the 'use aeroplanes like buses' culture we have built up over last couple of decades.

There will essays written elsewhere on this. But here are some of my initial thoughts:

- People will have less money and thus won't travel, which will reduce volume overall and push up costs (thus having a knock on effect) for those that still have the means and desire to fly. God knows what will happen in reality, but I personally don't buy the 'V shaped instant recovery' theories. I think it will take a few years and in that time culture will shift away from the expectation that we can hop on a plane and fly almost anywhere for a few quid.

- A lot of airines/travel businesses will have gone under and the sense of how risky/fragile that sector is will make it hard to get investment to re-expand. So there will be less competition and less companies prepared to operate at a loss in order to gain bigger market share. Again pushing up costs and lowering volumes.

- Even after the immediate threat of Covid-19 (which is itself likely to last quite a long time at the global level, even after a vaccination exists) there will be lingering uneasiness about international travel amongst a lot of people. Would you book a trip to China, or a cruise (which usually involves flying) in the near future?

- Reduction in business travel (as people have learnt it is both possible and much much cheaper to talk to each other on line) will be maintained to some extent, and that reduction in volume will push up costs for others

- Climate change hasn't gone away. It remains to be seen how far we are going to 're-set' post crisis (I'm not very optimistic with regard to UK and US governments, but there will be others that are going to go in a different direction and we are likely to get dragged along). There will certainly be a lot of pressure for any fiscal stimulus to be directed, at least in part, towards building a low carbon economy.

I personally think we needed this change, but wish this could have happened over a longer time and in a planned and managed way. The sudden crash is going to cause a lot of worry and misery (I also work in a sector that's going to be decimated and have no idea how I'll maintain any income longer term, so I am not blind to how this feels). But the industry has had its head in the sand, and assumed they could carry on flying and expanding indefinitely and somehow climate change solutions would come from elsewhere.

I was surprised to see that the UK is bracketed with the US in this?
Is that an opinion or fact?
I was under the impression that the UK was doing better than many countries in this area and the worst offenders were USA, Russia,China and India.

 

[marlowe]

On a related note and I said this to a friend last week who was the same, I can't actually remember the last time I even saw a plane in the sky.

The last time I did - a couple of weeks or so ago, I opened up a "what's that plane" type app, and it was a Fedex cargo plane that had come from Memphis and was going to Paris.

At 11.45pm on Bank Holiday Monday there wasn't a single plane flying over the entire UK.....
https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro....oment-wasnt-single-plane-sky-uk-12559914/amp/

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

America’s haphazard federal policy at the moment, not to mention the new immigration card Trump has thrown in, will make America a no go destination for many reasons. Many countries will now be reluctant to accept flights from America, Trump will obviously try and use political muscle to open up airline routes probably before its wise, all the while spouting vile nationalistic rhetoric.

Internal American flights will start up within a month, because they care more about the dollar than health.
International flights will probably start up again so, but not on a grand scale, most folk will now be planning on spending time in their own beautiful countries. I don’t expect full scale tourism back until next summer, the worry is a resurgence of the virus either now or again in the winter months.

 

[bhafc99]

While I agree with many posters' views that the 'full-scale, leisure' aviation sector will take time to rebuild (and may indeed never go fully back to it what it was), I think some levels of flying will start this summer.

It's a vital component of the global economy, because a lot of it isn't just "people going on holiday" – it's trade, commerce, business, workers moving jobs, immigration/emigration and more. Yes we may have to wait for that fortnight in Ibiza, but the key routes between major global cities will be active to some extent by (in my opinion) June/July.

I also fücking hope so, on a personal level. I normally get to see my family every 2/3 weeks. It's already been 5 weeks, and I'm mentally banking on being able to see them by June. One of the airlines here (Etihad) is starting to talk about restarting flights during May, and I think that's the kind of timeline a lot of airlines will be looking to.

Otherwise I'll be dusting off my Yachtmaster qualifications, finding a boat and sailing back!!