Ukip claims to have up to 40% support says Brighton Pavilion candidate Nigel Carter

[Pretty pink fairy]

http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/12865993.Ukip_claims_to_have_up_to_40__support/?ref=mr


UKIP politicians are predicting a four-way split for a key Brighton seat and claiming they will be in the race for a sensational parliamentary victory.

Brighton Pavilion candidate Nigel Carter says Ukip can win 10,000 votes in Brighton Pavilion alone, claiming his party’s own polling is showing up to 40% support in certain areas.

Opposition candidates have poured water on the claims, describing them as “deluded” and “untrue”.

It would be a remarkable surge for Ukip to come close to their ambitions having gained less than 1,000 votes in 2010 compared to the more than 16,000 votes that swept Green candidate Caroline Lucas into parliament.

In one of the tightest races anywhere in the country in 2010, Ms Lucas beat Labour’s Nancy Platts by just 1,252 votes with Conservative candidate Charlotte Vere also gaining more than 12,000 votes.

The latest published polling data from Lord Ashcroft dating from December put Caroline Lucas on course to retain her seat with 38% of the vote followed by Labour candidate Purna Sen on 28%, Conservative candidate Clarence Mitchell on 21% and Ukip on a lowly 8%.

Mr Carter has spelled out a bullish message of optimism from his party, confident of winning seats in Sussex for the first time ever and capitalising on what they say are the failings of their more-established rivals.

He said: “I can see all the other parties’ support going down.

“People don’t like the Conservatives hectoring tone and I think Caroline, who was on 16,000 last time, will go down because of the Green council’s performance where they have been naive.

“Our private polls last year had seen us go up from 1% to 10% and that was before we won the European elections.

“I think we have a real chance of up to 10,000 votes and then there is going to be a tie between four candidates, its’ going to be real neck and neck.”

Clarence Mitchell, Conservative candidate for Brighton Pavilion, said: “Ukip are as deluded as they are unrealistic.

“They will not be polling anything like that.

“This seat is a classic three-way party marginal and a vote for Ukip is a wasted vote.

“The Conservatives are the only party capable of giving Brighton Pavilion voters the chance to decide on our future relationship in Europe with a guaranteed referendum on EU membership by 2017.

“Ukip has hardly been mentioned on the doorstep, I have never seen one single Ukip flier, canvasser or deliverer.

“Last time round they polled something like 1.8% and if they increase that, they will have done well.”

The countdown to this year’s knife-edge election is underway and The Argus will be keeping you at the cutting edge in the run down to May 7.

Sussex seats will play a key role in deciding the future make-up of the national government and we will be following every twist and turn in what is set to be an exciting final five weeks of campaigning.

In Brighton and Hove, we have three constituencies that were all decided by less than 2,000 votes each last time round and could be even tighter this year.

Elsewhere in the county there are MPs fighting for their political lives to hold on to seats they won in 2010.

Even in the county’s safer seats, we will see a changing of the guard with long-standing Horsham MP Francis Maude and former Government ministers Charles Hendry and Greg Barker stepping down.

Fresh blood should invigorate these campaigns and new MPs will be keen to show their worth.

The big parties are ploughing their resources into marginal Sussex seats knowing every constituency counts in the battle for Number 10, and candidates in winnable Sussex seats will receive support from party big hitters.

We have already had the chancellor tossing pizzas this week and a minister stepping up to the cricket strip but prepare for many more.

A home secretary down at the beach, a coalition minister in Coalition nightclub or a Labour bigwig on the pier – anything is possible.

The rise of the outsider parties such as the Green Party and Ukip will be the unknown factor when we head to the polls – can they turn their self-styled surges into parliamentary gains?

And how resilient can the Liberal Democrats prove when all around them are predicting their voters will leave in droves.

All these questions and more might not even be answered by May 7 and the country could be waking up to uncertainty One thing is for certain, with so much at stake – there is certainly no cause for apathy.

running scared
regards
DR

 

[daveinprague]

lol@running scared.

 

[Triggaaar]

Realistically, the Tories have no chance in Pavilion these days. They know that. It's a two way seat. The same as those either sides, but with Labour and the Greens on this occasion.

So, in order to keep Labour out, Tory voters have to vote Green

 

[Peter Grummit]

Realistically, the Tories have no chance in Pavilion these days. They know that. It's a two way seat. The same as those either sides, but with Labour and the Greens on this occasion.

From Wiki:
The largest majority received by an individual is also Sir Cooper Rawson (Con), reelected with a majority of 62253 at Brighton in 1931.

this was when Brighton was just one constituency. Who says the place has changed over time??

Even in 87, Julian Amery had a majority of over 11,000, taking more than 50% of the vote.

PG

 

[Nitram]

Walking around the area it's noticeable that the Green poster support is much higher than other parties. I would not be surprised if UKIP lost its deposit. I think Lucas will increase her majority.

 

[Eeyore]

So, in order to keep Labour out, Tory voters have to vote Green

I'm sure that most would be more than happy with that as an alternative...

 

[Eeyore]

From Wiki:
The largest majority received by an individual is also Sir Cooper Rawson (Con), reelected with a majority of 62253 at Brighton in 1931.

this was when Brighton was just one constituency. Who says the place has changed over time??

Even in 87, Julian Amery had a majority of over 11,000, taking more than 50% of the vote.

PG

Well, the recent demographics, and both the national and local election results suggest that it has. The Tories polled 46% of the vote in 1992, it has dropped to a mean average of 25% since.

 

[Eeyore]

Walking around the area it's noticeable that the Green poster support is much higher than other parties. I would not be surprised if UKIP lost its deposit. I think Lucas will increase her majority.

Very possible. I remember, in 2010, telling people that the Greens had a real prospect of taking the seat. I remember a work colleague saying that they would now vote for Caroline Lucas on that evidence. This suggests that the Green vote has far from peaked, given the evidence of the council elections in that constituency during 2011.

Also, most people are not falling for Labour's ploy of linking the parliamentary vote with the local one. I expect Lucas to increase her majority by around the 10% forecast, but Labour to pick up some of the outer council seats from the Greens.

 

[The Large One]

Very possible. I remember, in 2010, telling people that the Greens had a real prospect of taking the seat. I remember a work colleague saying that they would now vote for Caroline Lucas on that evidence. This suggests that the Green vote has far from peaked, given the evidence of the council elections in that constituency during 2011.

Also, most people are not falling for Labour's ploy of linking the parliamentary vote with the local one. I expect Lucas to increase her majority by around the 10% forecast, but Labour to pick up some of the outer council seats from the Greens.

There is some anecdotal evidence - on here, for one - of a vote for Caroline Lucas being a personal vote rather than a party vote.

i.e. - "I don't support the Green Party, but I would vote for her..."

 

[Eeyore]

There is some anecdotal evidence - on here, for one - of a vote for Caroline Lucas being a personal vote rather than a party vote.

i.e. - "I don't support the Green Party, but I would vote for her..."

Indeed. For example, as you saw on my thread in Facebook, [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] regards her as the 'best constituency MP in the country', yet I know he is no fan of the Green Party, especially locally. Unlike myself, who's, sometimes misplaced, loyalty is unswerving.

 

[jcdenton08]

^^ the best constituency MP I know of is Stephen Lloyd, who, sadly represents the weakest party. He'd be better standing independent. Mr. Lloyd is a phenomenal local MP

 

[Eeyore]

^^ the best constituency MP I know of is Stephen Lloyd, who, sadly represents the weakest party. He'd be better standing independent. Mr. Lloyd is a phenomenal local MP

Tight majority, but the Tories have lost a lot of votes to UKIP in Eastbourne. I expect him to be re-elected.

Edit: In fact, if the most recent Ashcroft poll is anything to go by:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/eastbourne/

 

[jcdenton08]

It'd be fantastic for the town if he was. Thank you for the information

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

I wondered at first what date this article had been written and realised that it was yesterday. First impressions were it must have been written 24 hours earlier.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Indeed. For example, as you saw on my thread in Facebook, [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] regards her as the 'best constituency MP in the country', yet I know he is no fan of the Green Party, especially locally. Unlike myself, who's, sometimes misplaced, loyalty is unswerving.

If I was in Brighton Pav I would indeed vote for her. An MP with real principles who is as highly regarded in Pavilion as Andrew Bowden once was in Kemp Town. I'll be voting Labour in the council elections though, as a tactic (in South Portslade ward) and am totally undecided who to vote for as my MP.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

To be fair these are all LD marginals which UKIP cannot win in the first place and where tactical voting would see either Labour (1) or Conservatives (7) winning the seats.

These were opinion polls NOT an actual (tactical) vote

 

[Vegas Seagull]

^^ the best constituency MP I know of is Stephen Lloyd, who, sadly represents the weakest party. He'd be better standing independent. Mr. Lloyd is a phenomenal local MP

Simon Kirby Brighton Kemptown was, in an independent report, 2nd of 652 in being in touch/involved with his constituents

 

[Vegas Seagull]

View attachment 64303

Shocking bookie, which one?

 

[Elvis]

Simon Kirby Brighton Kemptown was, in an independent report, 2nd of 652 in being in touch/involved with his constituents

I gotta ask. Are you Simon Kirby? or if not are you his campaign manager? if not then perhaps you should be.

To be fair he may be a great Local MP ( as was the great Andrew Bowden ) but I think his national party will let him down. I see Gideon visited Hove, but did he pop along to Kemp Town to support his MP?
The big guns in the party will visit the key marginals and seats that they believe they can hold/win. The Tories let down your man, perhaps he should run as an independent. Labour has a very strong campaign team in the KP area it will be tight but I think Labour will prevail.

 

[8ace]

Shocking bookie, which one?

Betfair Sportsbook