*** The official Keep Britain in the EU thread ***

[GT49er]

But the UK has a huge financial services trade supplus with the EU. The Germans and the Swiss will be rubbing their hands with glee at a Brexit. And as this sector happens to be the biggest in the UK economy the UK had better think very quickly what it wants to replace it with. This single issue will destroy the UK IMHO.

The Germans a the Swiss can rub their hands with glee as much as they like. Our virtual economy might take a hit, but at the end of the day it's only a virtual economy. Fat cats in the city and merchant bankers might get distressed..............shame.

 

[melias shoes]

Does anyone seriously think that American Express will keep its European headquarters in Brighton, if the UK leaves the EU?

And that's your argument for staying in is it?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The Germans a the Swiss can rub their hands with glee as much as they like. Our virtual economy might take a hit, but at the end of the day it's only a virtual economy. Fat cats in the city and merchant bankers might get distressed..............shame.

Financial services, virtual economy....you'll have to explain that one to me.

"might take a hit" - it's the biggest sector in the UK. I hope our politicians are not so casual about it.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Like we have been saying for years. And I would add we have less jobs in manufacturing.

More people, lower wages meaning people need to claim in work benefits, so less money going to pay for things like our NHS, Schools and other services.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...down-wages-offered-to-British-jobseekers.html

 

[melias shoes]

There are 56 hands on the wheel unfortunately Germany and to a lesser extent France control the rudder.

Exactly and they guard it for all they're worth. It was their game and they're going to make sure they stay in charge. Oh they love our huge financial input but don't dare ask us for any of the control because that just isn't going to happen. Yep this is Germany's game along with their lapdog France calling the shots .

 

[melias shoes]

OUT - And not because we will lose x amount in trade or jobs....thats just horse shit scare mongering from vested interests. If Britain votes OUT (and i hope they do) the Germans will still want to sell their cars, the French their wine. A trade tariff deal akin to Norway or Switzerland will be done in days.

Immigration? Thats also a major problem when you have zero control on inbound numbers from the EU and its effect on public services, housing, jobs. But that still isn't the reason to vote OUT

Anti Democratic? That it certainly is, as much as I despised Ed Milliband and now that complete tool Corbyn, I can still accept either of those men, being British, having a mandate from the British people and putting forth their vision of Britains future. What is hard to accept is European laws and regulations supercedeing national laws and having our sovereignty eroded by unelected Beurocrats. But that is not the reason for coming OUT

National Sovereignty - Many men fought and died to protect these shores and now all they fought and died for is effectively being slowly given away. Germany twice tried militarily to gain full control of Europe and whilst Germany today is different, the Irony is that they, as the dominant force and chief rule setters, are in fact going to achieve by subtler means what they have failed at twice before. But still that is not the reason for wanting OUT

The reason that we simply must come OUT is because of the destination of the European project. It is a fallacy to think we can stay as we are with what the EU currently is and argue for or against that position. The EU is a runaway train whose every step is taken towards ever closer union and whose destination is nothing less than a complete 100% United States of Europe, with a european flag, parliament, currency, military, president and politicians. The end of national sovereign states, national laws, national currencies, national identities. It wont happen overnight but that's the destination on the front of the train. You think its about jobs or immigration, think again. Its about becoming no more or no less than a small state in a Federal United states of Europe with a european Goverment and european laws, the end of parliamentary democracy and sovereignty in this country. If youre comfortable of supporting of this, vote IN by all means, but if that makes you shudder then consider that when you hear the bullshit about how it will affect trade, jobs or how the real issue is about immigration.

You get on a bus with no stops whose destination says manchester, you'd better be sure you actually want to go to manchester. Because thats where youre going once the door closes whether you like it or not.

We are a small but mighty nation, we have brought so much to the world including the beloved game. We are creative, tolerant, industrious. We will survive with or without the EU.

Do we really want ever closer union to eventually exchange our sovereignty and ability to govern ourselves in order to become a small part of a European federal superstate lead by Germany and governed by Brussels?

That is the only choice - IN or OUT

Brilliant.

 

[Soulman]

Exactly and they guard it for all they're worth. It was their game and they're going to make sure they stay in charge. Oh they love our huge financial input but don't dare ask us for any of the control because that just isn't going to happen. Yep this is Germany's game along with their lapdog France calling the shots .

Yep, Germany are happy for us to stay in. If we get out at least we might not have thousands of BMW cars with indicators that do not work on the road.
With a 65% import and 35% export, plus the billions we pump in, added to all the rules foisted on us, i think we will be sorely missed.
It might even help to end the EU project.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

A trade tariff deal akin to Norway or Switzerland will be done in days.

So. The UK will remove itself from the rules and regulations of the EU....and sign up to 90% of those exact same rules in a few days?

One, do you really think this is possible? And two....what exactly would be the point of this? Really looking forward to your answer here.

Or, am I correct in thinking you don't really know what you're talking about?

 

[soistes]

And that's your argument for staying in is it?

No, not at all, it's just part of the discussion about the impacts of leaving which might be relevant to some local people. Personally, I think the broader impact on the UK macro-economy of Brexit (which, in my view would be overwhelmingly negative in the medium to long term) is far more important than a few thousand potential jobs lost in the Brighton area, but I was simply pointing it out, given that many people on here might care about it. As I understand it, firms selling financial services in the EU have to have their European HQ in an EU member state, so Amex would be likely to move from Brighton if we leave and, as the largest private sector employer in the area by a substantial margin, that would definitely have a significant impact on the local economy. I guess it would also affect Amex's interest in sponsoring/supporting other local businesses - I look forward to the day when the Albion plays its home matches at the UKIP Community Stadium....

 

[JC Footy Genius]

But the UK has a huge financial services trade supplus with the EU. The Germans and the Swiss will be rubbing their hands with glee at a Brexit. And as this sector happens to be the biggest in the UK economy the UK had better think very quickly what it wants to replace it with. This single issue will destroy the UK IMHO.

But overall the EU has a large trade surplus with us. Suggesting our financial services sector would be destroyed and collapse if we leave is based on what exactly? Sounds a bit like scaremongering HT!

 

[alfredmizen]

But overall the EU has a large trade surplus with us. Suggesting our financial services sector would be destroyed and collapse if we leave is based on what exactly? Sounds a bit like scaremongering HT!

It is scaremongering , business will naturally migrate to where it can get done, that place is London for Europe and most of the world , there was a time when New York and London were jockeying for position as the Financial capital of the world , that is no longer the case.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

But overall the EU has a large trade surplus with us. Suggesting our financial services sector would be destroyed and collapse if we leave is based on what exactly? Sounds a bit like scaremongering HT!

It's based on the trade surplus you mention ie the fact the UK exports much more financial services to the EU than it receives. The EU's freedoms makes these services attractive to other members. So if these services were suddenly outside the EU, with all the myriad associated complications this will bring, then EU members will most likely go elsewhere and Frankfurt will love to step in and help I'm sure. At a very simple level just paying for the service will be a lot more complicated.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It is scaremongering , business will naturally migrate to where it can get done, that place is London for Europe and most of the world , there was a time when New York and London were jockeying for position as the Financial capital of the world , that is no longer the case.

I agree it will migrate to where it will get done. But if I'm in France wanting a financial service then it will be easier to get it done in another member state than a non-member state. London might be number 1 but how much of this is due to being within the biggest economy in the world? You could argue it's rise to number 1 correlates quite nicely with the rise of the EU economy.

 

[alfredmizen]

I agree it will migrate to where it will get done. But if I'm in France wanting a financial service then it will be easier to get it done in another member state than a non-member state. London might be number 1 but how much of this is due to being within the biggest economy in the world? You could argue it's rise to number 1 correlates quite nicely with the rise of the EU economy.

Not a lot to be honest , Russian companies or african miners dont list on the london stock exchange because its in the EU, nor does 60 % of the worlds foreign exchange transactions take place in London because its in the EU, nor is the worlds premier metals exchange in London because of the EU, it predates that by decades,are you seriously of the opinion that WTI crack spreads traded on ICE by traders in london will be affected by BREXIT ? , I could go on, London was the number one financial centre when the EU was just a twinkle in de gaulle's eye , i said it was jockeying for position with new york , trying to claim that Londons rise to pre eminence is anything whatsoever to do with the EU is clutching at straws to say the least.

 

[dingodan]

 

[Simster]

I'm a pro-EU voter who as time has gone on, is increasingly prepared to be swayed. The reason I am pro-EU is the fear of being locked outside this free market of 300-400m people. I don't believe it will be easy to negotiate a favourable trading agreement with the EU. We are not super-wealthy per captia, like Switzerland or Norway and it feels to me like our future lies in exporting financial and innovation expertise. I worry we will lose ground in both of these areas by moving away from the EU.

On the other hand, the people who are passionately pro-EU (especially on here, but also the wider political arena) consistently fail to make good arguments to stay in. As has been pointed out, why the f*ck is the CAP still in place? I just don't believe that UK government after UK government have ALL taken the view that we'll sneer from the sidelines over such appalling EU policy, yet nothing ever changes. I don't want to subsidise crap French and Italian farming any more.

I know what I feel about immigration. It should be completely free movement for broadly similarly comparable economies, such as it was when the EU was 12 member states. Never mind benefits, we shouldn't have to accept east Europeans, to sleep 22 to a 2 bed flat, undercut the local unskilled/semi-skilled job market only to ship all that money home again. Those people don't earn enough to contribute to our pension pot - if they did, I might argue it was a price worth paying, but they don't.

We should have been negotiating hard to enforce these tweaks to free movement, and to remove the CAP. Unfortunately, Cameron is one of the poorest negotiators I think this country has ever had. He's no Thatcher, and he's no Blair. He's utterly dreadful.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

It's based on the trade surplus you mention ie the fact the UK exports much more financial services to the EU than it receives. The EU's freedoms makes these services attractive to other members. So if these services were suddenly outside the EU, with all the myriad associated complications this will bring, then EU members will most likely go elsewhere and Frankfurt will love to step in and help I'm sure. At a very simple level just paying for the service will be a lot more complicated.

I think the economic consequences of leaving will depend entirely on the negotiated terms of our new relationship. There are so many existing embedded links and vested economic interests in coming to a mutually advantageous settlement that any suggestion of huge benefits or calamitous repercussions if we leave are unlikely to happen.

Yes in the longer term Frankfurt will try to exploit the new situation as will London in the developing markets that are becoming increasingly important. Also being the preeminent financial centre of the EU with the Eurozone at it's core could be considered a bit of a poison chalice looking at the underlying fundamental flaws that remain unresolved.

 

[alfredmizen]

I'm a pro-EU voter who as time has gone on, is increasingly prepared to be swayed. The reason I am pro-EU is the fear of being locked outside this free market of 300-400m people. I don't believe it will be easy to negotiate a favourable trading agreement with the EU. We are not super-wealthy per captia, like Switzerland or Norway and it feels to me like our future lies in exporting financial and innovation expertise. I worry we will lose ground in both of these areas by moving away from the EU.

On the other hand, the people who are passionately pro-EU (especially on here, but also the wider political arena) consistently fail to make good arguments to stay in. As has been pointed out, why the f*ck is the CAP still in place? I just don't believe that UK government after UK government have ALL taken the view that we'll sneer from the sidelines over such appalling EU policy, yet nothing ever changes. I don't want to subsidise crap French and Italian farming any more.

I know what I feel about immigration. It should be completely free movement for broadly similarly comparable economies, such as it was when the EU was 12 member states. Never mind benefits, we shouldn't have to accept east Europeans, to sleep 22 to a 2 bed flat, undercut the local unskilled/semi-skilled job market only to ship all that money home again. Those people don't earn enough to contribute to our pension pot - if they did, I might argue it was a price worth paying, but they don't.

We should have been negotiating hard to enforce these tweaks to free movement, and to remove the CAP. Unfortunately, Cameron is one of the poorest negotiators I think this country has ever had. He's no Thatcher, and he's no Blair. He's utterly dreadful.

Well put.

 

[alfredmizen]

I'm a pro-EU voter who as time has gone on, is increasingly prepared to be swayed. The reason I am pro-EU is the fear of being locked outside this free market of 300-400m people. I don't believe it will be easy to negotiate a favourable trading agreement with the EU. We are not super-wealthy per captia, like Switzerland or Norway and it feels to me like our future lies in exporting financial and innovation expertise. I worry we will lose ground in both of these areas by moving away from the EU.

On the other hand, the people who are passionately pro-EU (especially on here, but also the wider political arena) consistently fail to make good arguments to stay in. As has been pointed out, why the f*ck is the CAP still in place? I just don't believe that UK government after UK government have ALL taken the view that we'll sneer from the sidelines over such appalling EU policy, yet nothing ever changes. I don't want to subsidise crap French and Italian farming any more.

I know what I feel about immigration. It should be completely free movement for broadly similarly comparable economies, such as it was when the EU was 12 member states. Never mind benefits, we shouldn't have to accept east Europeans, to sleep 22 to a 2 bed flat, undercut the local unskilled/semi-skilled job market only to ship all that money home again. Those people don't earn enough to contribute to our pension pot - if they did, I might argue it was a price worth paying, but they don't.

We should have been negotiating hard to enforce these tweaks to free movement, and to remove the CAP. Unfortunately, Cameron is one of the poorest negotiators I think this country has ever had. He's no Thatcher, and he's no Blair. He's utterly dreadful.

serious question, what concessions did Blair ever gain us.

 

[Simster]

serious question, what concessions did Blair ever gain us.

I didn't mention concessions, I was talking about his negotiation skills. He's very pro EU and thus didn't see the need. In fairness, you have to remember the mood was very different back then in the buoyant economic years, before the sub prime market collapse, the unravelling of the Euro, and before the doors were opened to waves of East Europeans.

But his negotiation skills were always excellent. You might not agree, but most would say that Northern Ireland he negotiated a peace settlement through the most difficult of waters. I'm not expecting you to agree with me as I know how you feel about Blair but I think the point stands with regard to his negotiations.