[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[larus]

The trouble with the BBC is that they are so into global warming that if there is a mere hint of snow in the forecast their computers crash!

Yes, the 'global warming' where global temperatures haven't warmed for the past 18 years (according to the RSS data). Typical left-wing/green bias.

There's also claims that the fact that Antartic Sea Ice Extent is the LARGEST ever recorded is caused by global warming. And the recovery of Arctic Sea Ice has scuppered Al Gores claims of an Ice Free Arctic.

Huge, huge con.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Yes, the 'global warming' where global temperatures haven't warmed for the past 18 years (according to the RSS data). Typical left-wing/green bias.

There's also claims that the fact that Antartic Sea Ice Extent is the LARGEST ever recorded is caused by global warming. And the recovery of Arctic Sea Ice has scuppered Al Gores claims of an Ice Free Arctic.

Huge, huge con.

I've been skeptical on AGW in the past, but as each year that passes is continually in the top 10 warmest, year on year and Arctic Ice continues to hit historically low values in summer I'm pretty sure we're making a difference.

The decline in the Greenland ice sheet also poses a real threat to sea levels, and N Atlantic salinity, which itself could (still unlikely) weaken the Thermo Haline Conveyor, part which drives the Gulf Stream (amongst others).

Antarctica is different. Unlike the Arctic, which sits on sea water, the majority of the S Polar ice is on land. Antarctica is soooo cold that any warming won't bring the majority of the interior above freezing - but what is happening is the fringes are warming, which is accelerating the flow of ice off the land into the surrounding oceans. The increased extent is as a result of this faster flow - which of course isn't sustainable.

The idea that we've not risen in a number of years is at least partially down to people plotting global temps from 1998, which was a massive el Nino - see here for a good article on this

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-intermediate.htm

Another key thing this article points out is that despite an apparent pause in air temps of late (still well above the long term average) we've stored huge amounts of heat in the oceans .

It's easy to ignore Human induced climate change, and hope it doesn't exist, or will go away. Sadly, many people won't be convinced until it's too late to respond.

I'd rather go with the majority scientific view that we ARE causing some warming and encourage people to make the necessary changes to try and mitigate it as much as we can (hard to do) as well as push forward with innovations to respond should things go badly in the future.

As I said I used to be skeptical, but despite some very vocal sceptics, there IS a consensus regarding the science, and we have been warming.

 

[carteater]

I've been skeptical on AGW in the past, but as each year that passes is continually in the top 10 warmest, year on year and Arctic Ice continues to hit historically low values in summer I'm pretty sure we're making a difference.

The decline in the Greenland ice sheet also poses a real threat to sea levels, and N Atlantic salinity, which itself could (still unlikely) weaken the Thermo Haline Conveyor, part which drives the Gulf Stream (amongst others).

Antarctica is different. Unlike the Arctic, which sits on sea water, the majority of the S Polar ice is on land. Antarctica is soooo cold that any warming won't bring the majority of the interior above freezing - but what is happening is the fringes are warming, which is accelerating the flow of ice off the land into the surrounding oceans. The increased extent is as a result of this faster flow - which of course isn't sustainable.

The idea that we've not risen in a number of years is at least partially down to people plotting global temps from 1998, which was a massive el Nino - see here for a good article on this

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-intermediate.htm

Another key thing this article points out is that despite an apparent pause in air temps of late (still well above the long term average) we've stored huge amounts of heat in the oceans .

It's easy to ignore Human induced climate change, and hope it doesn't exist, or will go away. Sadly, many people won't be convinced until it's too late to respond.

I'd rather go with the majority scientific view that we ARE causing some warming and encourage people to make the necessary changes to try and mitigate it as much as we can (hard to do) as well as push forward with innovations to respond should things go badly in the future.

As I said I used to be skeptical, but despite some very vocal sceptics, there IS a consensus regarding the science, and we have been warming.

does this mean it's not going to snow tonight

 

[Papa Lazarou]

does this mean it's not going to snow tonight

Well, with very cold air coming from the East, warmer sea temps are a benefit if you want to develop convective showers. the latest GFS has this for tonight:

GRRR - can't post images - won't allow me to open uploader!

Here's a link

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020212/21-780UK.GIF?02-12

 

[Papa Lazarou]

another view for tonight

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020212/18-574.GIF?02-12

 

[martin tyler]

Is that 5cm of snow?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Is that 5cm of snow?

In a very localized area, yes.

 

[Midfield Minton]

Is that a possible 1-2cm of snow tonight

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Is that a possible 1-2cm of snow tonight

Yes, possible. The ley word is possible. Not probable.

 

[Midfield Minton]

So we will see snow tonight but it's if it lays or not??

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So we will see snow tonight but it's if it lays or not??

Well, a NE wind will be much colder here than the northerly.

so, when the precipitation is forecast (7am ish)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/18h.htm

We're forecast to all be below zero:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m-hd/18h.htm

Which does lead to this as a forecast of depth

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/hauteur-neige/18h.htm

 

[Midfield Minton]

Shame it's not a couple of hours earlier I mite of scammed a day off

 

[Hyperion]

Booooooo what a load of rubbish. No one single bleeding hour off work. I blame the Tories

 

[carteater]

I don't get it, the bbc have a weather warning for wednesday where no snow is forecast, but have nothing for tomorrow morning

 

[Taybha]

I knew my bit of seaweed was more accurate than the bbc

 

[bluenitsuj]

I don't get it, the bbc have a weather warning for wednesday where no snow is forecast, but have nothing for tomorrow morning

The British Bu*****t corporation?

 

[carteater]

I don't get it, the bbc have a weather warning for wednesday where no snow is forecast, but have nothing for tomorrow morning

there is one for tonight now. It won't happen now, we'll get a dusting at best.

 

[HawkTheSeagull]

Looking at various weather sites (BBC, Met Office and MetCheck) it is clear that none of them have a f*cking clue as they are all totally different !!

However, most are saying snow (of sorts) tomorrow morning though none agree on time. Metcheck say 5AM, Met Office saying 6AM with more at 10AM and the BBC say 10AM. So, who is right in simple terms and what kind of depth are we talking ? Need to plan for the morning.

 

[Midfield Minton]

All to late for me,I leave at 4.15am so I'll miss the fun again

 

[LamieRobertson]

Booooooo what a load of rubbish. No one single bleeding hour off work. I blame the Tories

wouldn't happen in Germany