[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[Easy 10]

That's fine for the outside, but my car has a habit of getting crazy levels of condensation on the inside. complete pain in the arse to wipe that down each day.

True. I keep a manky teatowel in the car for that.

 

[Grombleton]

I quite enjoy letting the fan clear the MIST and then try and drive looking through the patch that has cleared.

Sure, you'll hit the occassional cat or person, but that's part of the fun.

 

[Giraffe]

Good analysis and forecast here from the UK Weather Forecast Facebook page which has been very good at predicting before. In summary much colder and dryer than last winter. Bring on the white stuff.

Winter 2014/2015 – Forecast – Final thoughts

Winter 2014/2015 consists of December 2014, January 2015 and February 2015. It should be noted that while winter officially ends on the 28th February 2015, wintry conditions can continue to occur well into March which is officially a spring month.

WINTER 13/14 REVIEW: To help compare this winter’s forecast to that of the actual conditions of last winter, the following information will be of use; Last winter had a mean UK temperature of +5.2°C which is +1.5°C above the average in what was a very mild winter period. Rainfall totals were equally impressive in terms of being significantly above average with extensive flooding across parts of England and Wales. The winter period was dominating by a relentless amount of North Atlantic low pressures and storm systems that brought exceptionally wet and windy conditions to many areas over many weeks. Frost, ice, snow and wintry conditions in general were all frequently absent through the winter.

FORECAST PRODUCTION: When looking at the potential weather through the coming winter period there are a number of meteorological and climatological variables that are studied. It isn’t possible to discuss them all here, but some of the variables analyzed include; El Nino (ENSO) and general sea temperature patterns, but particularly within the North Atlantic, snow cover over Eurasia through this current autumn period, the state of the QBO and stratospheric conditions plus other variables and indicators.

THE FORECAST: Combining the above information and other information studied, the forecast for the winter is; for temperatures to be slightly below average and for rainfall to be below average.

Temperatures: Slightly below average (between 0.5°C and 1.0°C below average)

Rainfall: Below average (50mm to 100mm below average).

FORECAST SUMMARY: There are some distinct signs and signals that the forth coming winter will be a potential opposite to that of what was experienced during last winter. There are a lot of factors that point towards the coming winter producing far less stormy conditions and more in the way of ‘blocking patterns’. These blocking patterns are what are often required through the winter to bring cold weather to the UK and at the moment a colder and drier than average winter is preferred.

At the moment a potential mild start to the winter is expected as we move into early December. However the current expectations are that as the winter progresses the risk of increasingly colder spells will develop and with the first cold spell of weather potentially arriving during the second half of December and with then a risk of cold weather, at times, continuing throughout the remainder of the winter period. Even during the coldest winters milder interludes are possible and these are still expected at times. However, between December and the end of February colder than average conditions are expected overall and especially when compared with last winter, with a much greater frequency of winter weather which includes snow, frosts and below average temperatures.

- See more at: http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/...er-forecast-predictions/#sthash.6ltZ0rjd.dpuf

 

[melias shoes]

Good analysis and forecast here from the UK Weather Forecast Facebook page which has been very good at predicting before. In summary much colder and dryer than last winter. Bring on the white stuff.

Winter 2014/2015 – Forecast – Final thoughts

Winter 2014/2015 consists of December 2014, January 2015 and February 2015. It should be noted that while winter officially ends on the 28th February 2015, wintry conditions can continue to occur well into March which is officially a spring month.

WINTER 13/14 REVIEW: To help compare this winter’s forecast to that of the actual conditions of last winter, the following information will be of use; Last winter had a mean UK temperature of +5.2°C which is +1.5°C above the average in what was a very mild winter period. Rainfall totals were equally impressive in terms of being significantly above average with extensive flooding across parts of England and Wales. The winter period was dominating by a relentless amount of North Atlantic low pressures and storm systems that brought exceptionally wet and windy conditions to many areas over many weeks. Frost, ice, snow and wintry conditions in general were all frequently absent through the winter.

FORECAST PRODUCTION: When looking at the potential weather through the coming winter period there are a number of meteorological and climatological variables that are studied. It isn’t possible to discuss them all here, but some of the variables analyzed include; El Nino (ENSO) and general sea temperature patterns, but particularly within the North Atlantic, snow cover over Eurasia through this current autumn period, the state of the QBO and stratospheric conditions plus other variables and indicators.

THE FORECAST: Combining the above information and other information studied, the forecast for the winter is; for temperatures to be slightly below average and for rainfall to be below average.

Temperatures: Slightly below average (between 0.5°C and 1.0°C below average)

Rainfall: Below average (50mm to 100mm below average).

FORECAST SUMMARY: There are some distinct signs and signals that the forth coming winter will be a potential opposite to that of what was experienced during last winter. There are a lot of factors that point towards the coming winter producing far less stormy conditions and more in the way of ‘blocking patterns’. These blocking patterns are what are often required through the winter to bring cold weather to the UK and at the moment a colder and drier than average winter is preferred.

At the moment a potential mild start to the winter is expected as we move into early December. However the current expectations are that as the winter progresses the risk of increasingly colder spells will develop and with the first cold spell of weather potentially arriving during the second half of December and with then a risk of cold weather, at times, continuing throughout the remainder of the winter period. Even during the coldest winters milder interludes are possible and these are still expected at times. However, between December and the end of February colder than average conditions are expected overall and especially when compared with last winter, with a much greater frequency of winter weather which includes snow, frosts and below average temperatures.

- See more at: http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/...er-forecast-predictions/#sthash.6ltZ0rjd.dpuf

Bring on the white stuff? Speak for yourself.

 

[Flex Your Head]

4 years ago to the day, Beckenham looked like this.



Any sign of colder conditions heading our way?

 

[Badger]

4 years ago to the day, Beckenham looked like this.

View attachment 60532

Any sign of colder conditions heading our way?

I remember it well, I moved in to my new flat the day before and then that happened the next evening. I was quite pleased with my timing!

 

[LamieRobertson]

Wet winter followed by relatively good summer locally..driest September and wettest October for ages ..I'd definitely go for a cold winter as my own prediction purely on gut feeling

 

[BigGully]

Nothing in the models to suggest anything cold, I was surprised to hear the Weather Forecasters yesterday implying wrap up its getting colder, surely the one place that shouldnt have media hype are on the BBC weather views.

The only thing I can see is a slight easterly drift giving something a little chillier than we have had up to now, but nothing else unfortunately.

 

[casbom]

I guess they mean it's colder than it has been, which is true. It will also be the case this week with frosts thrown in for good measure, then the next couple of weeks look to be turning unsettled with no cold spell on the horizon. Last third of Dec might be different.

 

[supaseagull]

Interesting http://youtu.be/aX3eSluJhAo

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Interesting http://youtu.be/aX3eSluJhAo

I'm at work, so I can't watch youtube, but there's no sign of any sustained cold and snow down here in the run up to Xmas. It'll be chilly on Friday in a Polar Maritime airflow, and Scotland and N. England will see some snow showers, but the persistence of the Azores and at time Euro high will kill anything interesting. Using the CFS Daily model to predict the weather for Christmas is highly unreliable.

 

[BigGully]

I have looked at the model run, slightly depressing for cold lovers like me, however thing can change, but nothing obvious to excite ......

 

[carteater]

well um it's a bit cold this morning, that's it.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I have looked at the model run, slightly depressing for cold lovers like me, however thing can change, but nothing obvious to excite ......

Looks like we're entering a synoptic setup that will prove hard to get out of. The Azores High is so dominant that when the Atlantic low pressures cross the Atlantic, they roll over the top, and then slide SE over the UK, giving rain (heaviest in NW) then cooler PM air, with showers. The Azores High then builds towards the UK in the lull, only to be pushed back West with the arrival of the next Low from the West. Repeat. The Azores High is continually supported by mobile High pressure cells from the US that merge into it from the West.

There are 2 ways we could get cold weather from here:

1. The Atlantic calms down and allows a sufficient gap between lows to allow the Azores High to ridge N towards the semi-permanent Greenland High - this would create a mid-Atlantic block and allow Northerly air to flood down across the UK. This seems highly unlikely as the train of low pressure seems to be too powerful.

2. The Azores High moves or dissipates and allows the jet stream to dig much further South, allowing low pressure cells to pass closer to the south of England. In this scenario High pressure can build to the N or NE of the UK, reinforcing the southerly jet and allowing a cold Easterly flow off the continent. This also isn't likely with the Azores High keeping the jet to the north.

not good for cold lovers, at least down here.

 

[Yoda]

The Atlantic calms down and allows a sufficient gap between lows to allow the Azores High to ridge N towards the semi-permanent Greenland High - this would create a mid-Atlantic block and allow Northerly air to flood down across the UK. This seems highly unlikely as the train of low pressure seems to be too powerful.

I remember seeing a post on one of the weather forums outlining this as a possibility towards the end of the month, with lows to the north and east of the UK bringing us a very cold blast, with the high in the Atlantic blocking any further systems.

 

[Arthur]

Looks like we're entering a synoptic setup that will prove hard to get out of. The Azores High is so dominant that when the Atlantic low pressures cross the Atlantic, they roll over the top, and then slide SE over the UK, giving rain (heaviest in NW) then cooler PM air, with showers. The Azores High then builds towards the UK in the lull, only to be pushed back West with the arrival of the next Low from the West. Repeat. The Azores High is continually supported by mobile High pressure cells from the US that merge into it from the West.

There are 2 ways we could get cold weather from here:

1. The Atlantic calms down and allows a sufficient gap between lows to allow the Azores High to ridge N towards the semi-permanent Greenland High - this would create a mid-Atlantic block and allow Northerly air to flood down across the UK. This seems highly unlikely as the train of low pressure seems to be too powerful.

2. The Azores High moves or dissipates and allows the jet stream to dig much further South, allowing low pressure cells to pass closer to the south of England. In this scenario High pressure can build to the N or NE of the UK, reinforcing the southerly jet and allowing a cold Easterly flow off the continent. This also isn't likely with the Azores High keeping the jet to the north.

not good for cold lovers, at least down here.

I love it when you talk dirty!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I remember seeing a post on one of the weather forums outlining this as a possibility towards the end of the month, with lows to the north and east of the UK bringing us a very cold blast, with the high in the Atlantic blocking any further systems.

It's still possible, and none of the reliable models have this period within range yet. The established thinking is that when the Atlantic gets going, with a well formed Polar Vortex it can take many weeks to get out of the 'rut' - much like last winter. However, it can change reasonably quickly, but it's not common. Something has to change to allow it.

 

[carteater]

Well this looks interesting...

(excuse my sadness).

 

[carteater]

View attachment 60650

Well this looks interesting...

(excuse my sadness).

so maybe it could snow.

 

[banjo]

I'm at work, so I can't watch youtube, but there's no sign of any sustained cold and snow down here in the run up to Xmas. It'll be chilly on Friday in a Polar Maritime airflow, and Scotland and N. England will see some snow showers, but the persistence of the Azores and at time Euro high will kill anything interesting. Using the CFS Daily model to predict the weather for Christmas is highly unreliable.

So no need to put My snow tyres on My push bike yet then ?