[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

To whet the appetite, this guy:

Weather and Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan: LONG RANGE

Is going for cold / snowy run up to Xmas again, and a cold winter overall.

DISCLAIMER: I've no idea how he comes by his forecast - it could be completely made up, for all I know. It does seem a little over the top though.

 

[supaseagull]

Unlikely...More reliable sources say a warmer than recent years winter

Initial winter thoughts



I hope I'm wrong! I was only saying today that it's too warm for the time of year !

 

[Hillian1]

Unlikely...More reliable sources say a warmer than recent years winter

Initial winter thoughts



I hope I'm wrong! I was only saying today that it's too warm for the time of year !

This one, I want this one to be true.

I really hate the cold and snow just means I'm the only bugger able to get to work.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Unlikely...More reliable sources say a warmer than recent years winter

Initial winter thoughts



I hope I'm wrong! I was only saying today that it's too warm for the time of year !

I'm a member of that forum/community and Brian's track record isn't any better than any one else's. Let's just see how things unfold.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I'm a member of that forum/community and Brian's track record isn't any better than any one else's. Let's just see how things unfold.

In fact his conclusion (from 2 weeks ago) hardly goes for a very mild winter

So what about winter 2011/12?
At the moment things look finely balanced, and although I would be surprised if the winter turns out to be very mild and snowless, the chances of average or milder than average temperatures are higher than they have been for the last few years. I wouldn’t be surprised if this winter was the mildest since 2007/08, but despite this, it’s too early to discount the possibility of another cold one. If sustained cold is to come this year I suspect we’ll see a different pattern to recent winters, with more blocking over Scandinavia later in January and February. TheWeatherOutlook winter forecast will be issued in late November. On the basis of this discussion, don’t conclude it will be predicting a mild winter because how the weather evolves during the next six weeks is a very important consideration for me.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

The 2nd consignment of snow shovels (£8) nearly all gone at Asda , Grimsby. Ideal Xmas present for the missus ?

 

[middletoenail]

The 2nd consignment of snow shovels (£8) nearly all gone at Asda , Grimsby. Ideal Xmas present for the missus ?

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

Papa - any truth in this ?

Britain's glorious autumn and unusually mild weather is about the be hit by Siberian temperatures, say experts.

Following an October that set records for its warm weather, temperatures will drop to below zero within a fortnight - and could be down to -15C by December.

The UK was thrown into travel chaos last year when high levels of snow hit across the country at the end of November.

Now forecaster are saying snow could hit even earlier than last year, with some even predicting temperatures as low as -20C.

Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions told the Daily Mail: 'It will not be as sustained as last year, but these episodes are expected to be severe, with Siberian temperatures.'

And forecaster Brian Gaze of The Weather Outlook, told the Daily Express: 'There are signs of a significant change in the mild weather in mid-November.

'The current mild weather is caused by a high pressure block to our east, keeping us under a south-westerly flow of Atlantic air.

'But it looks as though high pressure could move further north west, allowing much colder air to filter across the UK from the north or east, with the risk of snow increasing.'

And Exacta Weather's James Madden said there would be 'frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures'.

The news comes as the Government announced the Met Office will send out extreme weather alerts to the NHS this year, in a bid to prevent 25,000 deaths caused by winter in the UK.

Meanwhile, Heathrow Airport's operator BAA has announced it has tripled its number of snow clearance vehicles, as well as the number of staff ready to clear snow, compared with last year, when heavy snowfall caused chaos as 4,000 flights were cancelled over five days before Christmas.

BAA now has boosted its snow-shifting machines from 47 to 185, and 468 staff per shift, compared with 117 last year, according to the BBC.

The move is part of a £50m snow-tackling plan, of which £32.4m has been spent so far in the war against bad weather, according to the publication of the Winter Resilience Enquiry Report.

The report also revealed plans for new airport control centre and better airport-to-passenger communication.

 

[Trufflehound]

Back in Spring, the long-range forecasters were predicting a fine warm Summer - rubbish, we had a shit Summer.

Just a couple of months ago, in links posted on this thread, people were predicting a cold Autumn and snow by mid-late October - I don't think so...

There's even one forecaster (linked above somewhere) giving specific forecast temperatures for December 15-20th...

Conclusion. That far ahead it's only a 'best guess', and just as likely to be wrong as right, but the meteorologists are paid to say something, so what else can they do? They can hardly say: Er, actually, to be honest we have no idea.

If we get a severe Winter they can say 'we told you so'. If not, they can say 'well, count yourself lucky there was no disruption.' Win-win for them.

If they predict a mild Winter and we get Siberian weather on the other hand, they'll come in for no end of stick when the country grinds to a halt. The 'Fish Effect' means they'll always err on the 'be prepared' side.

 

[Flex Your Head]

So, a year after the snow began, who do we believe this year?

In the blue corner, Exacta Weather:

As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions.

Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with deep widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland. Any required updates will be posted accordingly.


Or, in the red corner, The Met Office:

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Dec 2011 to Friday 23 Dec 2011:

The generally unsettled westerly theme looks set to continue through the early to middle part of December, with spells of wet and windy weather separated by some drier interludes. Temperatures for the period should exhibit a trend towards average or slightly above average values by mid-December, however some colder interludes are still likely to occur. Even with average or slightly above average temperatures, frosts are still likely, particularly on the clearer and more settled nights. Rainfall amounts will be around average, with the wettest weather likely across western parts and with some snow probable over the higher ground of northern UK, particularly during the colder spells. Sunshine amounts are also likely to be around or slightly above average in this rather changeable regime.

 

[HAILSHAM SEAGULL]

We believe Papa, the weather god.

 

[leigull]

Will be away for most of December, hoping the snow waits until Janaury!

 

[Tricky Dicky]

Papa is the one to trust. I don't mind getting stuck as long as I'm at home at the time, not at work. I remember Nov 30th last year very well, 8 hours to get home. I still cringe at the thought.

 

[Stu1]

There will be no snow or even cold weather before the 11th of December as temprerures will remain at least 2-3 degrees above seasonal norms
I spend most of my morning looking at weather for a Russian gas company trying to predict demand using many sources mainly WSI who pull together many forecasts and analyse each, no one is predicting cold weather before the 9th.

 

[shaolinpunk]

I'm off work the week of the 12th December, so if any snow could wait until after that week that would be much appreciated

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Papa - We're off to Chicago, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Green Bay for Christmas / New Year - what are te best sites for checking out possibility of snow there please?

 

[supaseagull]

So, a year after the snow began, who do we believe this year?

In the blue corner, Exacta Weather:

As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions.

Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with deep widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland. Any required updates will be posted accordingly.


Or, in the red corner, The Met Office:

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Dec 2011 to Friday 23 Dec 2011:

The generally unsettled westerly theme looks set to continue through the early to middle part of December, with spells of wet and windy weather separated by some drier interludes. Temperatures for the period should exhibit a trend towards average or slightly above average values by mid-December, however some colder interludes are still likely to occur. Even with average or slightly above average temperatures, frosts are still likely, particularly on the clearer and more settled nights. Rainfall amounts will be around average, with the wettest weather likely across western parts and with some snow probable over the higher ground of northern UK, particularly during the colder spells. Sunshine amounts are also likely to be around or slightly above average in this rather changeable regime.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to what James Madden writes. He is often the one who predicts widespread doom and gloom during winter months and whilst he has a degree of accuracy over the last couple of years, his long term forecasts are often off the mark.

That said, I would also take what the met office say with a pinch of salt also. Last year they purposely witheld the fact that the weather in December would be extremely cold and then went the other way in late December and forecasted more periods of prolonged snow in January & February for the South East.

 

[Giraffe]

Papa? Until he speaks we will never know.

 

[Andrew]

This is bullshit, haven't seen a flake of the stuff and it's nearly December.

 

[e77]

Papa? Until he speaks we will never know.

I have summoned him by the medium of Twitter.