So Single market - Stay or Go ?

[KZNSeagull]

I think negotiations will be very hard, if by some miracle we get a great deal all the other eu members will want to leave. Cant see the EU letting that happen.

I agree they will be very difficult and other members may want to leave. My thinking is that this will be the catalyst for major reform of the EU

 

[Baldseagull]

Increased controls on EU migration and access to the single market is a certainty. Most countries in the world access and trade with the single market/EU without any movement of people rules. It's all about the level and cost of access which is unlikely to be the same as we have now.

Financial Services will struggle. It is not a case of increased cost for them, it is whether they can operate at all.

 

[Baldseagull]

What control? It's an illusion that most of the British public have voted based on apparently. You personally have even less control as a voter than you've ever had.

I think you have had a whoosh moment.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

F***ing imbeciles believing things would actually change, now we're f***ed for a long time

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Baldseagull]

No. You are looking at it as 2 options. I am saying that there are other options to be negotiated - IN but with restricted movement.

That is a very optimistic outcome though, E.U. cornerstone policy. The let off for the negotiators will be that 48% wanted to remain, and so free movement will be something we can keep to satisfy that portion of the population.

 

[WATFORD zero]

No. You are looking at it as 2 options. I am saying that there are other options to be negotiated - IN but with restricted movement.

I think that you may be in an extremely small minority across all sides of the debate thinking that we can be in the single market with restricted movement.

Out of interest when you lost your virginity, did you try to keep a bit of it

 

[SK1NT]

2mins of audio... a great explanation of the brexit manipulation

http://www.lbc.co.uk/james-obriens-blistering-take-on-crisis-in-british-politics--133148

and if you want to hear a heart breaking call about a German lady and how things have changed for her since brexit... listen to the audio directly after

(The audio after is Video Sobbing German Woman's Call Stops James O'Brien In His Tracks )

Both Audios well worth a listen.

 

[KZNSeagull]

I think that you may be in an extremely small minority across all sides of the debate thinking that we can be in the single market with restricted movement, but time will tell.

When you lost your virginity, did you try to keep a bit of it

Yes, I am sure that I am in a minority but we are in uncharted waters here. The UK has to see what it can get, not just accept the default "Norway" position, for example. The deal I have outlined is the only one that will keep the majority of people in the UK happy - anything else will end up in carnage. I do have a sneaky suspicion that carnage will prevail though...

 

[severnside gull]

The EU stance is that we can't begin to negotiate trade terms until we have completed Article 50 exit negotiations which could take up to two years after we finally press the button to quit and that is currently forecast to be next year. All in all we are looking at TEN YEARS before a trading agreement with our nearest geographic markets. That's much of our export market screwed!
In the meanwhile EU rules require that any financial service provider working within the market must have a base there so expect banks etc to quit in droves.They will have no choice.
Consider that we won't replace all of the lost markets the EU represents. Consider negotiating elsewhere will also take years. Consider accessing new markets will inevitably involve reducing costs,
What access will we allow to our markets in the interim? Bear in mind that, for example, much of our energy infrastructure is now owned by EU-based companies.

A decade at least of chaos ahead then. And who will bear the hardest of the costs? Hard to imagine it won't be the very people who were most enticed to cast off the shackles of EU control. Early budgets will further decimate benefits - not those accessed by scroungers and immigrants but those needed by those thrown out of work as our industries collapse or suffering reduced income brought about by the need to be ever more competitive in chasing new markets. That may take a while to impact of course. Those hit immediately will be the physically and mentally disabled who successive Tory governments have already targeted for savage cuts. Council taxes and service charges will rise disproportionately with increasingly less local service provided.

But never mind. By the end of the first decade of austerity and isolation, many of those who chose it will be gone.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

F***ing imbeciles believing things would actually change, now we're f***ed for a long time

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

Care to expand on your economic projection?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Of course, Germany and France won't be so worried about selling cars and cheese to us when we are all out of work and can't afford them.

 

[The Albion Roar]

didnt we have a national poll on this recently?

We had a national poll on one question which encompassed myriad issues. The question was way, way, way too simplistic to cover all eventualities and considerations.

How do we know? Because there wasn't one single reason as to why the majority of those who voted, vote 'Leave'. Look at the poll on this thread for an example.

 

[FREDBINNEY]

Financial Services will struggle. It is not a case of increased cost for them, it is whether they can operate at all.

They wont, for many reasons , the chief one being the market will decide where they want to do their business, not Brussels.

 

[Baldseagull]

They wont, for many reasons , the chief one being the market will decide where they want to do their business, not Brussels.

If you want to handle E.U. citizens investments, insurance, borrowing etc. You might find you need to be compliant with and permitted by the E.U. to do business.

 

[FREDBINNEY]

If you want to handle E.U. citizens investments, insurance, borrowing etc. You might find you need to be compliant with and permitted by the E.U. to do business.

And we will be .

 

[Baldseagull]

And we will be .

If we have free movement of Labour, I am sure you are correct. I doubt we will get full free access without it, which is what my original comment referred to.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I think the new PM will not want to exit with the PM's prerogatory powers and will want the endorsement of the Houses of Parliament to repeal the 1972 European Act before Article 50 is activated.

I 'm still of the mind that the House of Commons could still vote against Brexit if they feel the electorate was significantly misled over the referendum. Moreover, the 27 have already said they won't budge, which is what the Remain camp said would happen until it was painted as "Project Fear" by Boris, Gove and the rest of LEAVE.

I can't believe Farage was allowed to get away with uttering "Australian Points-Style System" whilst telling people Europe would still give us free trade with no tariffs because they needed us more than we needed them. The biggest political deception in living memory.

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

I think the new PM will not want to exit with the PM's prerogatory powers and will want the endorsement of the Houses of Parliament to repeal the 1972 European Act before Article 50 is activated.

I 'm still of the mind that the House of Commons could still vote against Brexit if they feel the electorate was significantly misled over the referendum. Moreover, the 27 have already said they won't budge, which is what the Remain camp said would happen until it was painted as "Project Fear" by Boris, Gove and the rest of LEAVE.

I can't believe Farage was allowed to get away with uttering "Australian Points-Style System" whilst telling people Europe would still give us free trade with no tariffs because they needed us more than we needed them. The biggest political deception in living memory.

The only other scenario under which I can see us staying (or rejoining) is if the Labour Party finally get their act together (which means electing a leader like Dan Jarvis or even someone like Ben Bradshaw and yes, Ernest can laugh, but while the whole of the South West went Tory last year, he increased his majority), and manage to get very close to winning, but need the help of the Liberal Democrats, who I suspect would insist on an application to rejoin the European Union. I agree that their bouncing back seems highly improbable at present, but as an indication that the Tories might not get it all their own way, yesterday they won a by election in the Leatherhead North ward on Mole Valley District Council with a thumping majority:

http://www.molevalley.gov.uk/index.cfm?articleid=29476

This is a marginal ward, but though turnout was well down on last year, the Liberal Democrat vote fell by only 100 or so, whereas the Tories only got a third of their vote last year. This was a far more convincing result that the one in May 2016, when they only just won it:

http://www.molevalley.gov.uk/index.cfm?articleid=29474

This may not matter in the least. It's only one result, and most Tories may have stayed at home, but the Liberal Democrat vote is up over 300 in a month.

Regarding the poll, it has to be the single market for me, as the only way to avoid most of the consequences of last week's vote.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I can't believe Farage was allowed to get away with uttering "Australian Points-Style System" whilst telling people Europe would still give us free trade with no tariffs because they needed us more than we needed them.

Farage wasn't in Government. I don't know why anyone listened to him over the points system claim.

 

[KingKev]

We will not have that choice.
They have to make us pay, otherwise what keeps the Dutch, the Danes, the Poles, the Austrians etc from voting out, resulting in the disintegration of the EU or the bankrupting of Germany?
The question is how vindictive they want to be, and what our reaction is.....
Our best bet is Mutti Angie and Enda Kenny reigning in the others and helping us create a deal that looks punitive on paper but in reality is no more than a small fine for our bad behaviour.