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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



carlzeiss

Well-known member
May 19, 2009
5,854
Amazonia
Early on in the war, I watched a video by an academic, whose name escapes me. The gist was that Russia has been at war with the west for decades. It is just that the west hadn't noticed, at least until the invasion.

It may be years, or decades, or never, until we find out the true scale of Russian interference in western politics, elections, referenda etc.
This chap was warning us 40 years ago of how then the USSR and no doubt now Russia influences western , politics , media etc

 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,686
Wiltshire
Screenshot_2024-04-15-20-06-52-92_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg

This is very positive news
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,370
Interesting schematic and comments on so far agreed/previous US aid to Ukraine.

I knew not much actual money was sent but just weapons, but seems so much of each package never makes it to Ukraine as actual weaponry.

Over 16 Billion on US troops in Europe is Ukraine aid?

 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,686
Wiltshire
Interesting schematic and comments on so far agreed/previous US aid to Ukraine.

I knew not much actual money was sent but just weapons, but seems so much of each package never makes it to Ukraine as actual weaponry.

Over 16 Billion on US troops in Europe is Ukraine aid?


Very interesting chart.
I imagine most of those US troops were already in Europe as part of US commitment to NATO (plus training and funding their own troops of course).
Also, I've read a number of times (often from your same source) that a proportion of weaponry supplied was considered obsolete or surplus to US requirements anyhow.
Lots of smoke and mirrors...as the Americans like to say.
 






A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
17,909
Deepest, darkest Sussex
On the US side, I still don’t get why the US military industrial complex isn’t screaming at Congress to let their toys be used by Ukraine, giving it the most robust testing ground they could possibly imagine
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,348
Multiple reports of Dzankhoy (sp) Airport in Crimea on fire. 6 large fires reported which could be ammunition dumps.

Edit: Dzhankoi. Spelling could still be wrong.
 




fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,317
in a house

Russian meat grinder. These figures are only ones BBC can verify & doesn't include all the dead. Putin really couldn't give a shit.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,370
Things - may - be moving on the US to Ukraine aid (but probably best not to hold your breath).

Dont believe it until its done, it could very well be a trap.

Now a second GOP house member has joined MTG in filing a motion to vacate speaker, Johnson will now be relying on Dem votes, which reports suggest will happen if it advances Ukraine aid.

JD Vance another pro putin Trump puppet who days ago, said Ukraine couldnt win in NYT, today is railing against the REPO act and saying they shouldnt confiscate Russian assets, so Trump can use them as leverage in any future negotiations....... theyre so blatantly compromised by the the Russians, my only surprise was he wasnt wearing a Russia lapel pin.

As for the Ukraine aid, now Johnson is trying to split original supplemental into 4 seperate bills, whose details will be fully known by the Dems today, though mooted to be broadly similar to Senate deal. It was safer as a combined bill

But here's some of the risks, there's a procedure on the rules of a vote, Johnson is trying to make it a simpe majority, MTG and the pro Russian "House freedom caucus" are trying to block that and make it 2/3

Then theres ability for amendments, and you bet your bottom dollar the pro Russians in congress will try and add mutiple ridiculous ammendments that they know are non starters.

If it does get to a simple floor vote, on a majority, where it will likely pass, then theres the next big risks in Senate.

The filibuster, where some pro Russians in senate of which there a few, may try and drag it out with time wasting discussions/procedural arguments to run out the clock on passing it, effectively killing it.

If they make a single ammendment to what may was passed in congress before getting to Senate, then it has to go back to Congress..... and guess what?

Johnson can refuse to put it back on the floor for a vote.

Johnson can if he chooses, and if all the 4 seperate bills pass, combine all 4 into 1 bill for the senate rather than 4, Id suggest the Dems insist on that as a minimum for supporting him in his unseating challenge, that would at least block the filibuster if re combined with Israel when it hits senate.

I agree with you though Eric, that while hopeful, and there is still the "discharge petition number 9" in the back pocket requiring only 20 odd more signatories, if they try any such shenanighans, there will 100% be attempts by the Kremlin wing of the GOP to block this somehow, because Donald says so.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,348
Dont believe it until its done, it could very well be a trap.

Now a second GOP house member has joined MTG in filing a motion to vacate speaker, Johnson will now be relying on Dem votes, which reports suggest will happen if it advances Ukraine aid.

JD Vance another pro putin Trump puppet who days ago, said Ukraine couldnt win in NYT, today is railing against the REPO act and saying they shouldnt confiscate Russian assets, so Trump can use them as leverage in any future negotiations....... theyre so blatantly compromised by the the Russians, my only surprise was he wasnt wearing a Russia lapel pin.

As for the Ukraine aid, now Johnson is trying to split original supplemental into 4 seperate bills, whose details will be fully known by the Dems today, though mooted to be broadly similar to Senate deal. It was safer as a combined bill

But here's some of the risks, there's a procedure on the rules of a vote, Johnson is trying to make it a simpe majority, MTG and the pro Russian "House freedom caucus" are trying to block that and make it 2/3

Then theres ability for amendments, and you bet your bottom dollar the pro Russians in congress will try and add mutiple ridiculous ammendments that they know are non starters.

If it does get to a simple floor vote, on a majority, where it will likely pass, then theres the next big risks in Senate.

The filibuster, where some pro Russians in senate of which there a few, may try and drag it out with time wasting discussions/procedural arguments to run out the clock on passing it, effectively killing it.

If they make a single ammendment to what may was passed in congress before getting to Senate, then it has to go back to Congress..... and guess what?

Johnson can refuse to put it back on the floor for a vote.

Johnson can if he chooses, and if all the 4 seperate bills pass, combine all 4 into 1 bill for the senate rather than 4, Id suggest the Dems insist on that as a minimum for supporting him in his unseating challenge, that would at least block the filibuster if re combined with Israel when it hits senate.

I agree with you though Eric, that while hopeful, and there is still the "discharge petition number 9" in the back pocket requiring only 20 odd more signatories, if they try any such shenanighans, there will 100% be attempts by the Kremlin wing of the GOP to block this somehow, because Donald says so.

I should have paid more attention to all this. All I really care about is the end result, but to get there, I appreciate there is a very tricky path to negotiate.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,370
I should have paid more attention to all this. All I really care about is the end result, but to get there, I appreciate there is a very tricky path to negotiate.
For today, I think the most important issue is the detail of what's actually in new bill.

Again, this could be speculation, but this was interesting yesterday..... in suggesting new bill may have removed or lessened presidential draw down.

It was 8b in Senate bill, that really matters as its the part that authorises transfers immediately from current US stocks, which is what is needed now.

If they, as suggested below have moved to leave this out?? Then it would only leave future orders which take time and are as good as useless in the current battlefield scenario.

They need presidential draw down to insta send from current stockpiles.

the Dems will shirley know that and won't support anything that doesn't include that, so maybe much to do about nothing, but detail matters.

 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,686
Wiltshire
Dont believe it until its done, it could very well be a trap.

Now a second GOP house member has joined MTG in filing a motion to vacate speaker, Johnson will now be relying on Dem votes, which reports suggest will happen if it advances Ukraine aid.

JD Vance another pro putin Trump puppet who days ago, said Ukraine couldnt win in NYT, today is railing against the REPO act and saying they shouldnt confiscate Russian assets, so Trump can use them as leverage in any future negotiations....... theyre so blatantly compromised by the the Russians, my only surprise was he wasnt wearing a Russia lapel pin.

As for the Ukraine aid, now Johnson is trying to split original supplemental into 4 seperate bills, whose details will be fully known by the Dems today, though mooted to be broadly similar to Senate deal. It was safer as a combined bill

But here's some of the risks, there's a procedure on the rules of a vote, Johnson is trying to make it a simpe majority, MTG and the pro Russian "House freedom caucus" are trying to block that and make it 2/3

Then theres ability for amendments, and you bet your bottom dollar the pro Russians in congress will try and add mutiple ridiculous ammendments that they know are non starters.

If it does get to a simple floor vote, on a majority, where it will likely pass, then theres the next big risks in Senate.

The filibuster, where some pro Russians in senate of which there a few, may try and drag it out with time wasting discussions/procedural arguments to run out the clock on passing it, effectively killing it.

If they make a single ammendment to what may was passed in congress before getting to Senate, then it has to go back to Congress..... and guess what?

Johnson can refuse to put it back on the floor for a vote.

Johnson can if he chooses, and if all the 4 seperate bills pass, combine all 4 into 1 bill for the senate rather than 4, Id suggest the Dems insist on that as a minimum for supporting him in his unseating challenge, that would at least block the filibuster if re combined with Israel when it hits senate.

I agree with you though Eric, that while hopeful, and there is still the "discharge petition number 9" in the back pocket requiring only 20 odd more signatories, if they try any such shenanighans, there will 100% be attempts by the Kremlin wing of the GOP to block this somehow, because Donald says so.
You've done a very detailed 'exposée' of a complex situation. Thanks. Hard to hear it, but important we understand.
From my rather naive standpoint, it feels like Johnson is now trying his best, but, as you say, the Trump and Putin fan boys will do their best to scupper Ukrainian support at every fork in the road.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,686
Wiltshire
For today, I think the most important issue is the detail of what's actually in new bill.

Again, this could be speculation, but this was interesting yesterday..... in suggesting new bill may have removed or lessened presidential draw down.

It was 8b in Senate bill, that really matters as its the part that authorises transfers immediately from current US stocks, which is what is needed now.

If they, as suggested below have moved to leave this out?? Then it would only leave future orders which take time and are as good as useless in the current battlefield scenario.

They need presidential draw down to insta send from current stockpiles.

the Dems will shirley know that and won't support anything that doesn't include that, so maybe much to do about nothing, but detail matters.


Yes, future manufacturing and supplies will only be useful if Ukraine survives the short term ☹️
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,686
Wiltshire




fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,317
in a house
The next 12 months 🤞🏻will hopefully see another 25% increase at least in Russian deaths
Can I be greedy & ask for 50%? Putin seems intent at throwing even more Russians into the grinder.
 




marcos3263

Well-known member
Oct 29, 2009
925
Fishersgate and Proud
Im confused about the number of war dead. BBC says 50k Russians but several other sources say nearer 500,000, a vast difference. where are the real numbers?
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,348
Im confused about the number of war dead. BBC says 50k Russians but several other sources say nearer 500,000, a vast difference. where are the real numbers?
The 50k reported by the BBC, are just the deaths they have been able to confirm. There will be more that they either cannot confirm or are not even aware of.

Ukrainian forces report the total number of Russian casualties, which includes both deaths and injured, as 461,000.
 


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