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Lib/Dems win Richmond Park.
- Thread starter Leekbrookgull
- Start date
2.45 mins . " at the end of the day they are doing a good thing for us .Our generation wouldn't want to work in factories "
You are kidding?
Common as Mook
Not Posh as Fook
- Jul 26, 2004
- 5,631
Genuinely not. The ground is there for them to occupy with the omni-shambles that is Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott tripping over their own shoe laces every five minutes.
I agree that I for one thought they were going to be a lame duck for ages, but it seems as if they now have a genuine opportunity to be a credible alternative again.
Just goes to show how FPTP distorts the voters wishes. Bring on STV and we would get a much more nuanced political system, instead of this binary in/out, left/right, right/wrong divisive mess we have.
clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,347
Ha ha. Have YOU been to Richmond ?
Tories didn't have a candidate and the locals
1) Disagree with him over Europe
2) Watched him run a shocking mayoral campaign
3) The lib dem is anti Heathrow expansion.
She ticks all their boxes, Zac doesn't anymore.
Liberal Left [emoji1]
Anti-Brexit Lib Dem wins by-election in Richmond. But how can we be sure the people of Richmond really knew what they were voting for? Maybe they're "low information". Maybe they were made poisonously anti-Brexit by Guardian and Economist propaganda. Maybe they're so hooked on Newsnight and Radio 4 that they can no longer think for themselves. Perhaps they were brainwashed by the demagogues Tony Blair and Richard Branson. Can we really trust such people to make big, important decisions like who should sit in parliament? We need a second vote. Give them another chance to get it right. The country must be saved from their ignorance.
Was not Was
Loitering with intent
- Jul 31, 2003
- 1,590
This could be a bigger result than this thread has suggested so far.
The two pro-Hard Brexit parties (Tories and UKIP) didn't stand, to give Goldsmith a clear run, and the anti-Brexit candidate overturned a 23,000 majority, with on-the-ground campaign support from Greens (who did not run either, to help the Lib Dems, but still campaigned as Greens) and 'progressive' groups from the Labour party.
It's hard to say what turned the Tory voters: government incompetence around Brexit negotiations, the increase in hate/division the #EUref result led to, or economic fears if the govt pursues its current plans. Whichever it is, this will be giving some Tory MPs the willies, not least because it suggests people's fears around Brexit now trump the damage done to the Lib Dem brand by the 2010-2015 coalition.
The two pro-Hard Brexit parties (Tories and UKIP) didn't stand, to give Goldsmith a clear run, and the anti-Brexit candidate overturned a 23,000 majority, with on-the-ground campaign support from Greens (who did not run either, to help the Lib Dems, but still campaigned as Greens) and 'progressive' groups from the Labour party.
It's hard to say what turned the Tory voters: government incompetence around Brexit negotiations, the increase in hate/division the #EUref result led to, or economic fears if the govt pursues its current plans. Whichever it is, this will be giving some Tory MPs the willies, not least because it suggests people's fears around Brexit now trump the damage done to the Lib Dem brand by the 2010-2015 coalition.
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 30,603
What is interesting about the Richmond Park result is that it was only possible because the Greens chose not to put up a candidate and so give the Lib Dems more of a free run.
This was a great call by the Greens because they polled 3,500 in the 2015 General Election and a similar vote last night would have seen Goldsmith win by a 1,000 or so votes.
I know there were special circumstances in Richmond but, nevertheless, this shows a level of pragmatism that you wonder how it might play out in future elections. A party to the left of Labour defers to a party right of Labour and - in spite of Labour putting up a candidate and splitting the anti-Goldsmith vote - the Lib / Green coalition still polled enough votes to win.
In the business world you'd expect Labour to seek to acquire or merge with upstart rivals that steal their customers, but Corbyn is showing no signs of appealing to the centre ground or doing deals with the Lib Dems so I think many Labour Remain voters will go Lib Dem after this.
This was a great call by the Greens because they polled 3,500 in the 2015 General Election and a similar vote last night would have seen Goldsmith win by a 1,000 or so votes.
I know there were special circumstances in Richmond but, nevertheless, this shows a level of pragmatism that you wonder how it might play out in future elections. A party to the left of Labour defers to a party right of Labour and - in spite of Labour putting up a candidate and splitting the anti-Goldsmith vote - the Lib / Green coalition still polled enough votes to win.
In the business world you'd expect Labour to seek to acquire or merge with upstart rivals that steal their customers, but Corbyn is showing no signs of appealing to the centre ground or doing deals with the Lib Dems so I think many Labour Remain voters will go Lib Dem after this.
D
Deleted member 22389
Guest
Junker advised other leaders not to offer their people referendums, amazing. Stop fing telling people what to do.
Frustratingly this is exactly how AV would've worked, and they wouldn't have had to withdraw candidates.
West Hoathly Seagull
Honorary Ruffian
Sorry for the long reply, but there are a few. My own constituency, Battersea, voted something like 75% for remaining, as did Putney next door. The majority in Battersea is about 8,000, in Putney around 10,000, though both are straight fights between Labour and the Tories, so the Liberal Democrats would be unlikely to do that well. Both Jane Ellison (Battersea) and Justine Greening (Putney) are Ministers, Greening being Education Secretary, so they have to vote in favour of Article 50, though both were very strong remainers. These seats were Labour when New Labour was at its strongest, though they're usually Tory nowadays. However, were there to be a by election in Battersea, I think Labour would run the Tories close, even though Battersea Labour Party was one of the strongest backers of Owen Smith, and Parliamentary candidates are usually from the Blairite wing.
Talking of Richmond, I know it well, as I spent part of my childhood in Kew. My parents were members of Kew Conservatives in a social capacity, but the area used to be solidly Liberal in local elections (never in General Elections though). Richmond used to be very popular with leading television figures (both Attenboroughs, for example), and the Dimblebys, and well known people from the Arts, such as Sir John Mills, and certainly was liberal at one time. However, the Lib Dems have only taken the Parliamentary seats, Richmond Park, formerly Richmond and Barnes (the seat is actually more Tory-inclined now, as the part of Kingston moved into it is the wealthiest part of the borough), and Twickenham when the Tories have been very unpopular. Also, Richmond is now very popular with bankers and other City staff who can no longer afford Kensington and Chelsea, so this win is a considerable achievement for the Liberal Democrats.
Talking of Sussex, Mid Sussex and Horsham were the two seats that voted most strongly in favour of remaining (there was an immigration survey not all that long ago, which showed that Horsham was considerably more favourable to it than Crawley). Both had huge Tory majorities in 2015, but that was the first election when Nicholas Soames won by a large margin.
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 30,603
1. You yourself have used the word "advised". The definition of advice is "guidance or recommendations offered with regard to prudent action". Can you not see the difference between ordering and advising?
2. The last two referenda in the UK have resulted in stoking up division, both on the issue of Scottish independence and Brexit. Once polarised, it's difficult to see how people that voted for extremes in more or less equal numbers can be easily or speedily reconciled and, in doing so, the normal political agenda on which the Tory / Labour Parties have fought has gone out of the window.
The way to get change is by parliamentary elections.
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
Tories is TOTAL disarray , Maggie May is leading them to OBLIVION
GT49er
Well-known member
Yeh, I'll bet he has!
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
It was in 1997 and 2005 but with boundary changes it's difficult to be exact. Goldsmith won it in 2010 & 2015.
West Hoathly Seagull
Honorary Ruffian
Of course, I missed out Lewes, where with Norman Baker gone, I think a Lib Dem would run the Tories very close in a by election, though I suspect they'd easily take it back in a General Election, as they would the other two. I also forgot Brighton and Hove, where the Tories hold Brighton Kemptown. If the boundary changes don't go through, I think Simon Kirby will lose regardless of Brexit, as it's one place where Jeremy Corbyn is popular and Labour have got much of the Green vote back - see the recent by election in East Brighton.
Not Andy Naylor
Well-known member
I think one of the key factors here is that Goldsmith resigned and declared that the by-election would be fought on the issue of Heathrow expansion.
However, the electorate rightly felt that they would be the ones who decided what the issues were.
However, the electorate rightly felt that they would be the ones who decided what the issues were.