General Election 2017

[jakarta]

[tweet]871858754769301504[/tweet]

Survation is the only Polling Company that has not changed its survey methodology since 2015.

Which wasn't a great success from memory?

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Survation is the only Polling Company that has not changed its survey methodology since 2015.

Which wasn't a great success from memory?

That latest poll is bollox lol. There is no doubt the Tories will take a hit, but not as bad as they are forecasting.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

How do you explain Germany's success then? It has a higher tax rate than the UK; higher corporation tax than the UK and a compulsory health insurance scheme for higher earners. Yet you don't see German companies look to base their head offices in lower tax regimes. And Germany is a much bigger economy than the UK's.
I think your view of lower tax = better business is a bit simplistic - there are other factors involved.

I'm not sure a straight comparison with Germany tells us a great deal about this issue. There are other economic
forces at work applying to one or other of the two economies that makes isolating the tax effect very difficult. One good example is the distorted economic incentive of German export industry enjoying a lower exchange rate (the Euro) than their economy merits due to the averaging of their being combined with weaker Southern European economies. It is possible that this offsets the higher tax regime for German business and there are of course many morally disadvantageous impacts on the rest of Europe of equivalent higher exchange rates elsewhere.
It's not that I'm disagreeing with you but I don't think your case is proven.

 

[nicko31]

That latest poll is bollox lol. There is no doubt the Tories will take a hit, but not as bad as they are forecasting.

Inclined to agree but its the trend of the polls which is only going in one direction. If you take a mean of the polls and assume to be correct this is looking at best a huge waste of time for May, at worst a disaster with no overall control.

 

[nicko31]

Tories are upping their campaign game finally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt7lWRtfve8

Its targeted at Yorkshire folk its understandable

 

[Bold Seagull]

Tories are upping their campaign game finally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt7lWRtfve8

This is his actual theme tune that he commissioned...

 

[seagulls4ever]

Survation is the only Polling Company that has not changed its survey methodology since 2015.

Which wasn't a great success from memory?

They did not publish a poll just before the 2015 GE which got it pretty much spot on as they thought it was incorrect. Turns out they were wrong to suppress it as it was correct. They also got the referendum spot on. Also, they have changed their sampling I believe, one of the main problems with the 2015 polls.

 

[Buzzer]

Tories are upping their campaign game finally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt7lWRtfve8

That's Brian Butterfield!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5acDTfjJsV4

 

[Deleted member 22389]

This is his actual theme tune that he commissioned...

That's ringing in my head now.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Success for individuals leads to success for the country.

I feel that many labour voters would prefer to drag others down rather than everyone being lifted up, even if the gap increases.

But 'everyone' is simply NOT being 'lifted up'. And to compound things they now take away the mechanisms and resources that protect those who we fail to 'lift up'.

That is the issue.

 

[Tubby-McFat-Fuc]

FFS keep this woman off TV!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq8Dd5Sa7fI

As alluded to in the interview, there has been suggestions Corbyn has been trying to hide her away, but she's not listening and speaks to the media anyway!

Doesn't seem very confident of remaining shadow Home Secretary if Labour form any sort of government.

Whatever your view, surely having this *edit* woman *edit* as Home Secretary should be enough for any sane person not to vote Labour. She will in control of our safety. I wouldn't put her in sole control of a kettle.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Whatever your view, surely having this woman as Home Secretary should be enough for any sane person not to vote Labour. She will in control of our safety. I wouldn't put her in sole control of a kettle.

I've edited your quote for you, so you look a little bit less of a wanker.

(and FWIW - I agree, she is an absolute MESS of a woman, who should be nowhere near a cabinet position. I can't imagine she actually will be, either)

 

[larus]

I've edited your quote for you, so you look a little bit less of a wanker.

(and FWIW - I agree, she is an absolute MESS of a woman, who should be nowhere near a cabinet position. I can't imagine she actually will be, either)

So why is she shadow home secretary then? If she's holding a prominent position now (lets' face it, it's one of the top positions), why should we not be assuming that she won't be in a similar position if they win.

And, if you think that she is not fit for office, what does that say about the judgement of the man who put her there?

 

[Simster]

So why is she shadow home secretary then? If she's holding a prominent position now (lets' face it, it's one of the top positions), why should we not be assuming that she won't be in a similar position if they win.

And, if you think that she is not fit for office, what does that say about the judgement of the man who put her there?

The only way Labour can get into government is through a coalition. I'd like to think the more sane elements of that coalition would do their best to ensure she was nowhere near the top jobs.

Meanwhile, I'm fast arriving at the conclusion that there are plenty of utter incompetents in the Tory government. So much so that they are barely in a position to criticise the hopeless Diane Abbot. Theresa May has done an incredible job of making Corbyn look polished and competent in this election campaign. Her lack of ideas, vision, and constant mantras now hopelessly lampooned has marked her out as a genuine political pygmy.

 

[ManOfSussex]

The battle of Hastings & Rye continues - Labour posters and signs now being attacked and removed.

Apparently the main reason so few Conservative posters are up for Amber Rudd is because someone in The Hastings & Rye Conservative Association took the decision to just re-use posters from 2015, presumably to help keep her expenses well down this time, but unfortunately forgot the fact that Ms Rudd has a different electoral agent this time to last, which, as this was displayed on the 2015 posters, it would be breaking the law to display false information on election campaign material. Shambolic.

 

[Bozza]

The battle of Hastings & Rye continues - Labour posters and signs now being attacked and removed.

Apparently the main reason so few Conservative posters are up are up for Amber Rudd is because someone in The Hastings & Rye Conservative Association took the decision to just re-use posters from 2015, presumably to help keep her expenses well down this time, but unfortunately forgot the fact that Ms Rudd has a different electoral agent this time to last, which, as this was displayed on the 2015 posters, it would be breaking the law to display false information on an election. Shambolic campaign.

Ladbrokes:

Tory - 1.10
Labour 6.00

 

[ManOfSussex]

Ladbrokes:

Tory - 1.10
Labour 6.00

Betfair saying it's good value - https://betting.betfair.com/politic...ng-odds-2017-general-election-050617-136.html

I wont be putting any money on it though.

 

[Simster]

Betfair saying it's good value - https://betting.betfair.com/politic...ng-odds-2017-general-election-050617-136.html

I wont be putting any money on it though.

That Betfair pundit is merely suggesting there is value here:

May has run a terrible campaign and Jeremy Corbyn quite the opposite. At 5/1 this is a value play as Labour should be much closer to 3/1 or 5/2 in this seat so that is why I'm recommending backing Labour to topple a potential May replacement on June 8.

Conservative - 22,686
Labour - 17,890
UKIP - 6,786
Green - 1,951
Liberal Democrat - 1,614
Majority - 4,796

Green have stood down and endorsed the Labour candidate, so nearly all of those votes will go to Labour. UKIP are a busted flush, so you would expect them to be slaughtered (losing half their share) and of those votes I would expect the Tories to win two thirds and Labour one third. Factor in a crap Tory campaign and I suspect Rudd is looking at a majority of 2,000 at this point.

I can see why that pundit reckons 5/1 is value.

 

[ManOfSussex]

That Betfair pundit is merely suggesting there is value here:





Conservative - 22,686
Labour - 17,890
UKIP - 6,786
Green - 1,951
Liberal Democrat - 1,614
Majority - 4,796

Green have stood down and endorsed the Labour candidate, so nearly all of those votes will go to Labour. UKIP are a busted flush, so you would expect them to be slaughtered (losing half their share) and of those votes I would expect the Tories to win two thirds. Factor in a crap Tory campaign and I suspect Rudd is looking at a majority of 2,000 at this point.

I can see why that pundit reckons 5/1 is value.

It depends where those UKIP votes go, assuming they come out to vote at all, they're not guaranteed to go to the Tories. Ask a fisherman what he thinks of Amber Rudd - that's why UKIP are standing. Her Brexit stance last summer may still count against her.

The big factor though is the electorate in Hastings & Rye has gone up by 5.1% from newly registered voters since the election was called too - mostly all 18-24 year old's. The Labour canvassers I spoke to on Saturday are surprised at the genuine support they feel they have and feel it's in the balance. I've heard the Conservatives think it's safe though. I wouldn't want to call this one myself.

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]872017947585380352[/tweet]

Jesus wept.