General Election 2015

[Gwylan]

About 10% of the UK's economic performance is not taxed, so £150bn is being lost to the Government....................staggering numbers, will anything be done?.

A big part of that is illegal activity, notably drug dealing and semi-legal/regulated activity such as prostitution and gambling. Calculation of our GDP has just been adjusted to take some of these into account

http://www.theguardian.com/business...ng-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules

It would be a bold government to fully legalise prostitution and drug supply, although it would bring in a hefty income (and save billions in policing/court/prison costs)

 

[Ernest]

It amuses me that the unions have essentially shot themselves in the foot by voting Eddie and Eddie in. Those two are a political parody.

As have business by having Cameron, Osborne and IDS as their incompetent cheerleaders

 

[melias shoes]

Shit just got real. Political heavyweights Ant & Dec deliver a scathing attack on Ed Miliband*

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html


*No, this is not a parody. Seriously, who the hell cares about what Ant & Dec think of the current political climate? Have we sunk that low that these are the opinion-formers?

It beats Russell bloody brand with his looked up long words leftie bulls hit doesn't it

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I guess it will all come down to the economy, as without a decent economy there's no tax receipts to pay for the NHS etc and also the 'cost of living' crisis.

There's no doubt the Tories have got very lucky with the collapse in oil prices, bringing inflation down to less than a quarter of wage rate rises, however Labour and Balls got it very wrong predicting a triple dip recession as a result of the cuts.

Milliband's idea of a fuel price freeze seems to have backfired with fuel prices on the fall.

With a different leader and shadow chancellor, Labour would have walked this, but I'm going for another coalition.

 

[Soulman]

It beats Russell bloody brand with his looked up long words leftie bulls hit doesn't it

An article from the Guardian no less.
"Brand leaves you in little doubt that he is trying to escape the ennui that follows trying everything once except incest and folk dancing. “It’s only because I decimated my life by aggressively pursuing eating, *******, drinking, consuming and getting famous that I was forced to look at spiritual alternatives.” Inspiring a revolution – for such is his ambition – is one of the few thrills to have escaped him. “The revolution cannot be boring,” he says as he encapsulates his thoughtlessness in one phrase. “We’d all be a bit disappointed if utopia and ditching capitalism boiled down to ‘We want to be a bit more like Germany’ – **** that.”

"His writing is atrocious: long-winded, confused and smug; filled with references to books Brand has half read and thinkers he has half understood. At one point, he discusses whether our perception of reality is a mentally constructed illusion"
Television news producers are as world-weary as any burnt-out celebrity. They want Brand to be their new Farage and draw hundreds of thousands to their failing programmes. I am not saying that there is not a need for a left populism to confront financial power and environmental degradation. But Brand is a religious narcissist, and if the British left falls for him, it will show itself to be beyond saving."
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/oct/27/revolution-review-russell-brand-beverly-hills-buddhist

 

[Titanic]

I was expecting you to post that one. In addition, I was expecting you not to post these four from the weekend:

Populus have topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7
Opinium have topline figures of CON 33%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 6%(-2).
ComRes have topline figures of CON 32%(-1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 4%(+1).

Latest YouGov poll (15 - 16 Feb):
CON - 32% (-)
LAB - 32% (-3)
UKIP - 16 (+1)
GRN - 8% (+1)
LDEM - 6% (-1)

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

I can't speak for the bookies, but Matthew Parris and Kellner as far as I am aware are the only commentators who have come out and said they expect the Tories to finish on top (Anthony Wells is telling readers to treat the ICM poll cautiously - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/). Commentators such as Nick Robinson are far more cautious. More polls than not are showing Labour establishing a slight lead, and they are down 4% in Ashcroft's latest poll. I think the tax avoidance stuff must have had an impact. Labour in my view are no better, but it's the fact that the Tories are seen to be backing tax avoiders (not ordering HMRC to prosecute, for example), while clamping down hard on benefit cheats; Mark Harper's performance on the Today programme was dreadful in my view, that has hit them. The last thing I want politically is a Labour government, but I shall feel little sympathy for Cameron and his team if they are given the heave-ho.

 

[cunning fergus]

A big part of that is illegal activity, notably drug dealing and semi-legal/regulated activity such as prostitution and gambling. Calculation of our GDP has just been adjusted to take some of these into account

http://www.theguardian.com/business...ng-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules

It would be a bold government to fully legalise prostitution and drug supply, although it would bring in a hefty income (and save billions in policing/court/prison costs)

I am not sure the calculations for illegal activity include the economic value of the shadow economy, the ONS data does not indicate it does. The motive behind why "illegal activity" is now included is interesting in itself, as an increase in GDP would reduce our debt levels, plus because it drives our payments to the EU, the higher GDP is the more countries pay.

The ONS data indicates there are other new categories calculated to contribute to GDP such as decommissioned military equipment.........they are like a modern day version of the Sherriff of Nottingham.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa1-...0-changes-on-current-price-gdp-estimates.html

This kind of thing just I dicates that the amount of money taxpayers pay to the EU is itself staggering, not least given the political heirachy in the EU..........the colonial refrain "no taxation without representation" springs to mind.

 

[Gwylan]

I am not sure the calculations for illegal activity include the economic value of the shadow economy, the ONS data does not indicate it does. The motive behind why "illegal activity" is now included is interesting in itself, as an increase in GDP would reduce our debt levels, plus because it drives our payments to the EU, the higher GDP is the more countries pay.

The ONS data indicates there are other new categories calculated to contribute to GDP such as decommissioned military equipment.........they are like a modern day version of the Sherriff of Nottingham.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa1-...0-changes-on-current-price-gdp-estimates.html

This kind of thing just I dicates that the amount of money taxpayers pay to the EU is itself staggering, not least given the political heirachy in the EU..........the colonial refrain "no taxation without representation" springs to mind.

I don't believe that those figures don't include drugs and other illegal activities. Small businesses in the UK have a total turnover of £3.5bn; if the ONS figures only included cash-in-hand jobs, it would that mean every small business was not declaring 98% of its income (and that would mean every small business was doing it). We all know that there are cash in hand jobs going on but I don't believe for one minute that every small business exists pretty much on cash in hand jobs and nothing else.

And you can only look at SMBs as corporates aren't going to do brown envelopes deals: you don't ring up the chairman of Wimpey and say "Can you build me a house on a cash basis" or call in at BT's HQ and offer a wad of notes if they knock the VAT off.

That 10% does sound high: it can only make sense if you include drugs, prostitution, money laundering etc

And while I'm not in favour of the EU, the amount that is paid is not "staggering", our net contribution last year was £8.6 bn - less than 1% of government spending. It's not the cost of the EU that appalls me, that's pretty low, but the scale of corruption and political manoeuvering

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Dave is in Hove right now, preparing for victory

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Latest Guardian ICM poll:

Conservatives 36% (+6), Labour 32% (-1), Lib Dems 10% (-1), UKIP 9% (-2), Greens 7% (-2).

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

ICM called 3 of the last 4 spot on, easily the most accurate

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Stephen Timms labour employment chap ignoring interviewer question 3 times and making a complete dogs dinner of his interview

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Your Liberal bet looks likely. But your grasp of (even recent) electoral history is dire. Any self-respecting grammar school boy would regard it as a failure. Did Brown's Labour increase its polling in the months leading up to 2010? Did Major's in 1997?
And, if you had a decent grasp of how electoral percentages translate into seats, you'd recognise that a Labour national % equal to the Tory one results in more seats for Labour, so a 3% lead for Labour translates into an outright majority. You're also missing the point that the majority of seats that the Liberals lose will be to Labour, while the ones that they hold on to will predominantly be in Tory-Liberal marginals.

The whole West Country will go yellow to blue at those levels

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Because it was a rundown sh1thole that the owner couldn't wait to get rid of ?

£100 to the REMF is more desirable than yours!?

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Because it was a one to one transaction which didn't require a bidding process?

4 others were after it at lower levels, 1 matched mine 2 hours late

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Really ?? You reveal a glaring ignorance of the city, you haven't got a clue , maybe YOU didn't do very well at your grammar school , is that why you need to make grandiose statements on here ?

I bought Durlacher at £1 and watched them rise to £72, sold half at £60 & the other half at £48 on the way down...

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Because it wasn't a trade in the city that's why

Strange, I didn't realise you had to go to the City to trade gold. I went into Bloomsteins in the North Laine and offered them some gold & they offered to buy it. I accepted and we bid each other farewell

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I bought Durlacher at £1 and watched them rise to £72, sold half at £60 & the other half at £48 on the way down...

Come on pal. Bushy once lived in London and once worked in the city. Can you match that?

 

[Vegas Seagull]

like I said, I've been a broker and trader in the city for over 20 years , you're clueless and I'm still waiting for your apology.

Money where you mouth is!?
Next time you're on Pick a trade from any area and post it up.......that will double our money in 3 months

Here's mine Tories - Simon Kirby to win Brighton Kemptown @ 11/8 in May

 

[cunning fergus]

I don't believe that those figures don't include drugs and other illegal activities. Small businesses in the UK have a total turnover of £3.5bn; if the ONS figures only included cash-in-hand jobs, it would that mean every small business was not declaring 98% of its income (and that would mean every small business was doing it). We all know that there are cash in hand jobs going on but I don't believe for one minute that every small business exists pretty much on cash in hand jobs and nothing else.

And you can only look at SMBs as corporates aren't going to do brown envelopes deals: you don't ring up the chairman of Wimpey and say "Can you build me a house on a cash basis" or call in at BT's HQ and offer a wad of notes if they knock the VAT off.

That 10% does sound high: it can only make sense if you include drugs, prostitution, money laundering etc

And while I'm not in favour of the EU, the amount that is paid is not "staggering", our net contribution last year was £8.6 bn - less than 1% of government spending. It's not the cost of the EU that appalls me, that's pretty low, but the scale of corruption and political manoeuvering

Hmm, you may be right, as it’s the shadow economy we will probably never know.

You are a very generous man, it would appear (by way of example) that the farming subsidy given to Poland by the EU was recently increased by €8.6bn……….

http://www.thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/...-86-billion-in-EU-funds-for-rural-development

In contrast as of now we are due to pay out an estimated £8.6bn for the installation of new energy meters, which households will pay on average an extra £286 on their energy bills to install……………….

http://www.sustainablehomes.co.uk/b...ent-announce-8-6billion-energy-meter-roll-out

So what is to be………………..more money to Polish farmers, or the free installation of energy meters.

If you’re as generous as you appear to be, maybe you will pay for mine?

Send me a PM I will let you have my bank details.....................