General Election 2015

[peterward]

Where's the UKIP vote gone?.'

Farage has taken a day off from campaigning to do a touch of sabre rattling in the EU parliament.

I actually agree with what he says about locking out Africans from selling goods on the European market

 

[Gwylan]

Factor in all these, er, factors, plus Mliband's less than sparkling personal standing, then it starts to look fairly odds-on that Miliband won't be the next PM.

Those personal ratings that moved above Cameron's this month?

 

[ROSM]

Shades of Kinnock v Major in 1992? Miliband is so far from convincing, will be very surprised if it happens, odds on or not. Cameron to nick it on the day.

As long as he doesn't do a yank style convention speech where he shouts 'we're alright ' a few times, he may just be okay

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

As long as he doesn't do a yank style convention speech where he shouts 'we're alright ' a few times, he may just be okay

As long as he doesn't do THIS on Brighton beach any time in the next week...

 

[ROSM]

Another factor from the 1997 election was that the labour lead diminished consistently throughout the campaign leaving them as neck and neck into polling day
Since start of the campaign here, the changes have been marginal.

There is always a flight towards status quo in many elections. Certainly seen in the last 6 UK ones.

The alleged shy tory factor is now largely assessed by various methodologies and leads to adjusted opinion poll results

 

[spring hall convert]

Millibrand

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDZm9_uKtyo

I think Ed got the tone right there.

 

[simmo]

When all is said and done, what is everybody's best guess of the outcome based on the current state of play - as opposed to your personal preference (unless of course they happen to be one and the same?)

I think it will be a wafer thin Tory majority or another Tory - Lib Dem coalition.
I also think UKIP will get significantly more than than their current predicted 13% share of the vote but will still only get 3 or 4 seats at most.

The Guardian poll projection (which shifts daily) has the Cons on 273, Lab 269 and SNP 55 (but Lab and SNP not really having enough together to do anything). LD's 21...I think it will be something like that a very slight Con total seat lead over Lab but also though with the Cons getting an extra 1M or so more votes than Labour. So no one at all has any real mandate to govern in any sort of coalition/pact either formal or informal. Pretty much a dead heat (and I reckon needing a 2nd election later on in the year).

Out of interest if that happens, in the intervening period whom is our PM (and cabinet), say if their is an international crisis that needs dealing with....would the present govt (Con/LD) preside? What happens if say Danny Alexander/Nick Clegg even lose their seat?

 

[simmo]

As long as he doesn't do THIS on Brighton beach any time in the next week...

That always used to be on the start of Spitting Image with someone cutting the strings as Kinnock fell over

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

That always used to be on the start of Spitting Image with someone cutting the strings as Kinnock fell over

Such a tragedy that Spitting Image called it a day. So many simple tap-ins currently available

 

[glasfryn]

Millibrand

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDZm9_uKtyo

I think Ed got the tone right there.

this and dave calling Russel Brand a joke could rebound, dave does not realise how R/B is listened to by the youths of today,but then as I have said before the tory is not a party for the young
I think R/B is in danger of becoming a real socialist and maybe could even be drawn into the cabinet ,he is a real political animal

 

[nicko31]

Latest from the Tories in a law to stop VAT, Nat Insur and income tax rising in the next 5 years. We can add that to the ring fencing the education, the triple lock on pensions and all the extra wonger on the NHS

Someones gonna get hurt if they win, wonder who?

 

[glasfryn]

Latest from the Tories in a law to stop VAT, Nat Insur and income tax rising in the next 5 years. We can add that to the ring fencing the education, the triple lock on pensions and all the extra wonger on the NHS

Someones gonna get hurt if they win, wonder who?

did'nt they say it was not going up last time?
they are getting desperate

 

[melias shoes]

this and dave calling Russel Brand a joke could rebound, dave does not realise how R/B is listened to by the youths of today,but then as I have said before the tory is not a party for the young
I think R/B is in danger of becoming a real socialist and maybe could even be drawn into the cabinet ,he is a real political animal

Russell Brand is a joke. I for the life of me can't even begin to work out while this fake has any political credibility. He must look up a big word and say it's over and over again until it's sticks in his head. He talks total Bollocks. If the young of this country look up to him then god help us. He's just a chancer who's jumps on a bandwagon to get HIMSELF noticed. He doesn't really give a shit about anyone or anything except himself.

 

[glasfryn]

Russell Brand is a joke. I for the life of me can't even begin to work out while this fake has any political credibility. He must look up a big word and say it's over and over again until it's sticks in his head. He talks total Bollocks. If the young of this country look up to him then god help us. He's just a chancer who's jumps on a bandwagon to get HIMSELF noticed. He doesn't really give a shit about anyone or anything except himself.

you know him well then?

 

[ROSM]

The Guardian poll projection (which shifts daily) has the Cons on 273, Lab 269 and SNP 55 (but Lab and SNP not really having enough together to do anything). LD's 21...I think it will be something like that a very slight Con total seat lead over Lab but also though with the Cons getting an extra 1M or so more votes than Labour. So no one at all has any real mandate to govern in any sort of coalition/pact either formal or informal. Pretty much a dead heat (and I reckon needing a 2nd election later on in the year).

Out of interest if that happens, in the intervening period whom is our PM (and cabinet), say if their is an international crisis that needs dealing with....would the present govt (Con/LD) preside? What happens if say Danny Alexander/Nick Clegg even lose their seat?

Although a true majority is 325, 323 is enough given sinn fein don't take up their seats. Given those guardian numbers, Labour snp would be just enough

In terms s of what happens in the interim. Existing prime minister stays until it's clear that someone Else can command a majority to get a queens speech and budget passed. Last time this was 5 days, this time it could be longer.

Nb last time, Alistair Darling attended a meeting of european finance ministers during the hiatus

 

[nicko31]

did'nt they say it was not going up last time?
they are getting desperate

Not if about VAT last time. Just feel they now making more commitments than any other, plus a deluded view they will eliminate the deficit. Must think those housing assoc properties they are selling off are worth about £100 billion..

 

[glasfryn]

Not if about VAT last time. Just feel they now making more commitments than any other, plus a deluded view they will eliminate the deficit. Must think those housing assoc properties they are selling off are worth about £100 billion..

and theirs to sell ..............empty promises

 

[simmo]

Such a tragedy that Spitting Image called it a day. So many simple tap-ins currently available

So true, it really had a major effect how the public perceived individuals. Thatcher being an obvious example, but people like David Steel too whom said it ruined him. (as he was always in David Owen's pocket)

Read an article about Fluck and/or Law recently and they said that Thatcher going pretty much was the beginning of the end of Spitting Image....because Major was so boring they just did not know what to do with him!

Do you know the Queen hated them too, because on one puppet (in a book that I used to have) of Prince Andrew they have him nude and his privates are a string of sausages!

I can imagine some good ones they could do now. Boris Johnston, Alex Salmond, Nigel Farage, Wayne Rooney, David Beckham, Andy Murray, Russell Brand. Not sure about Cameron and Milliband though both pretty boring dull as dishwater career politicians aren't they?

 

[simmo]

Although a true majority is 325, 323 is enough given sinn fein don't take up their seats. Given those guardian numbers, Labour snp would be just enough

In terms s of what happens in the interim. Existing prime minister stays until it's clear that someone Else can command a majority to get a queens speech and budget passed. Last time this was 5 days, this time it could be longer.

Nb last time, Alistair Darling attended a meeting of european finance ministers during the hiatus

The Guardian do say that, but it really is hypothetical numbers and I think both the SNP and Labour (esp Labour TBH) would want to avoid. It would be so fragile, one by election loss could tip the balance, you have to make sure every single time on every single vote that 323 goes through that lobby.

Refering to 1992 as you have been. Do you remember Major got a majority of 20 (dream land for Lab/Con today) in the end and his situation started to crumble because of by election losses and the "bar stewards" on his own back bench...and they supposedly were on his side! When I think of that it actually is quite staggering that this Con/Lib coalition has stayed as firm as it has.

 

[Triggaaar]

this and dave calling Russel Brand a joke could rebound, dave does not realise how R/B is listened to by the youths of today,but then as I have said before the tory is not a party for the young
I think R/B is in danger of becoming a real socialist and maybe could even be drawn into the cabinet ,he is a real political animal

So RB is a socialist, and agrees with Miliband that Labour are better than the Tories - wow, hold the front page!

Dave is right to call him a joke. He's purporting to be conducting a political interview, but he's not, he's just bigging up Labour, because he's left wing. It's pointless.