General Election 2015

[Herr Tubthumper]

May well not be over on the 8th,Ernest.
Reckon that may be when the real fun and games start with every man and his dog trying to form a Government!

I reckon the Labour/SNP deal will be swift so they can both get on with sorting out the country's woes quickly.

 

[glasfryn]

I reckon the Labour/SNP deal will be swift so they can both get on with sorting out the country's woes quickly.

think somebody might make themselves some money going into the knife sharpening trade after the 8th, the only thing dave needs is a heavy overcoat to cover the target on his back

 

[London Irish]

Panelbase has 3% LAB lead
LAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC)

Not sure about this UKIP too high here

 

[glasfryn]

Panelbase has 3% LAB lead
LAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC)

Not sure about this UKIP too high here

don't know about to high will/can it transfer to seats , or is it spread about to much

 

[Bold Seagull]

Institute of Fiscal Studies - press release

 

[Machiavelli]

Panelbase has 3% LAB lead
LAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC)

Not sure about this UKIP too high here

It's very high, but their polls have been consistently higher than many thought over the last few weeks. I'm not so sure this will translate into many seats, but if it remains high, it's bad news for the Tories.

 

[Machiavelli]

don't know about to high will/can it transfer to seats , or is it spread about to much

This from politicalbetting.com might help:

h1New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets
April 22nd, 2015
comres1

This does not bode well for Farage in Thanet South

South Thanet
Boston and Skegness
Thurrock
Forest of Dean
Great Yarmouth
North Thanet
East Worthing and Shoreham
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
South Basildon and East Thurrock
Castle Point

A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which I think is wrong this close to the election.

The aggregated numbers speak for themselves and suggest that the Tories are set to withstand the UKIP threat in almost all of them. The list includes, of course, Thanet South.

One key factor is that the LD collapse has bolstered both the CON and LAB votes, and is one of the key reasons for UKIP’s failure to make first or second place. 25% of 2010 LD voters say they will now vote LAB, and 21% say CON with just 8% opting for UKIP.
As you’d expect older voters are much more likely to vote UKIP than younger voters. Only 8% of 18-34s say they will vote UKIP, compared with 25% of voters aged 55+.

This was a phone poll and as we have seen these tend to show smaller shares for UKIP and bigger shares for CON than surveys carried out online.

I think Rob Ford, one of the leading academic who has studied UKIP, makes valid points in these Tweets.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Did I tell you I'm a bounty hunter.?

98p for a 4 pack in Asda , 99p in 99p stores , £1 in Poundland

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Thank you. Please remember to bring the big cake with you.

Aren't you slightly worried El Pres will squeeze too much of his special custard into the cake ?

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

It's very high, but their polls have been consistently higher than many thought over the last few weeks. I'm not so sure this will translate into many seats, but if it remains high, it's bad news for the Tories.

Why is it? Read Revolt on the Right by Matthew Goodwin and Robert Ford. The book is the biggest insight into the profile of UKIP supporters and voters.

For example, on p.166 - Table 4.4 it shows the pattern of 'recalled votes' under from 2004-2013 (conducted by the British Election Study) - this showed that under Brown 2007-2010, 24% of now UKIP voters voted for Labour, compared to only 20% from the Conservatives.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

This from politicalbetting.com might help:

h1New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets
April 22nd, 2015
comres1

This does not bode well for Farage in Thanet South

South Thanet
Boston and Skegness
Thurrock
Forest of Dean
Great Yarmouth
North Thanet
East Worthing and Shoreham
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
South Basildon and East Thurrock
Castle Point

A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which I think is wrong this close to the election.

The aggregated numbers speak for themselves and suggest that the Tories are set to withstand the UKIP threat in almost all of them. The list includes, of course, Thanet South.

One key factor is that the LD collapse has bolstered both the CON and LAB votes, and is one of the key reasons for UKIP’s failure to make first or second place. 25% of 2010 LD voters say they will now vote LAB, and 21% say CON with just 8% opting for UKIP.
As you’d expect older voters are much more likely to vote UKIP than younger voters. Only 8% of 18-34s say they will vote UKIP, compared with 25% of voters aged 55+.

This was a phone poll and as we have seen these tend to show smaller shares for UKIP and bigger shares for CON than surveys carried out online.

I think Rob Ford, one of the leading academic who has studied UKIP, makes valid points in these Tweets.

I'm a bit confused about the methodology because in the footnotes they say ComRes interviewed 1,007 adults living in ten key Conservative-held UKIP target seats but does this mean they phoned 1,007 adults in each marginal or was it 1,007 adults spread across the 10 marginals ? Also with "aggregated numbers" is this the figure they come up with after extrapolation ?

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Panelbase has 3% LAB lead
LAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC)

Not sure about this UKIP too high here

Other recent polls suggest 14% is about right , The Panelbase 17% near enough offsets ComRes 12%. Are some of the polling organisations extrapolating data based on UKIP's 3% share in 2010 ?

 

[Elvis]

I didn't realise Worthing East and Shoreham was on the UKIP hit list?
I'm somewhat puzzled by this, its the next seat along from me, hardly an immigration hotspot!

 

[glasfryn]

This from politicalbetting.com might help:

h1New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets
April 22nd, 2015
comres1

This does not bode well for Farage in Thanet South

South Thanet
Boston and Skegness
Thurrock
Forest of Dean
Great Yarmouth
North Thanet
East Worthing and Shoreham
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
South Basildon and East Thurrock
Castle Point

A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which I think is wrong this close to the election.

The aggregated numbers speak for themselves and suggest that the Tories are set to withstand the UKIP threat in almost all of them. The list includes, of course, Thanet South.

One key factor is that the LD collapse has bolstered both the CON and LAB votes, and is one of the key reasons for UKIP’s failure to make first or second place. 25% of 2010 LD voters say they will now vote LAB, and 21% say CON with just 8% opting for UKIP.
As you’d expect older voters are much more likely to vote UKIP than younger voters. Only 8% of 18-34s say they will vote UKIP, compared with 25% of voters aged 55+.

This was a phone poll and as we have seen these tend to show smaller shares for UKIP and bigger shares for CON than surveys carried out online.

I think Rob Ford, one of the leading academic who has studied UKIP, makes valid points in these Tweets.

does look like they have peaked to early
most I meet and know are our age and are determined to vote UKIP and its Eastbourne so who knows but as I have said before I won't be to upset if Stephen Lloyd win out, and as a socialist I know a vote for anyone of that ilk stands little chance of even saving their deposit.
Forest of Dean surprises me a little

 

[Silk]

http://www.theguardian.com/business...ve-30bn-black-hole-in-spending-plans-says-ifs

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Why is it? Read Revolt on the Right by Matthew Goodwin and Robert Ford. The book is the biggest insight into the profile of UKIP supporters and voters.

For example, on p.166 - Table 4.4 it shows the pattern of 'recalled votes' under from 2004-2013 (conducted by the British Election Study) - this showed that under Brown 2007-2010, 24% of now UKIP voters voted for Labour, compared to only 20% from the Conservatives.

Remember UKIP won two seats from the Tories in by-elections and if they hold them on May 8th that's two down to start with. Out of the top dozen UKIP target seats only one is Labour , all the rest are Conservative. Hypothetically UKIP could end up with 10 seats meaning the Tories have lost 9 seats but Labour have only lost 1 seat.

 

[alfredmizen]

I didn't realise Worthing East and Shoreham was on the UKIP hit list?
I'm somewhat puzzled by this, its the next seat along from me, hardly an immigration hotspot!

Perhaps theyre targeting it because people in the constituency want it to stay that way ?

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Remember UKIP won two seats from the Tories in by-elections and if they hold them on May 8th that's two down to start with. Out of the top dozen UKIP target seats only one is Labour , all the rest are Conservative. Hypothetically UKIP could end up with 10 seats meaning the Tories have lost 9 seats but Labour have only lost 1 seat.

My post was concerned with the percentage of the vote and how it would be wrong to give the preconception that all UKIP voters are dissatisfied Conservatives.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

My post was concerned with the percentage of the vote and how it would be wrong to give the preconception that all UKIP voters are dissatisfied Conservatives.

In the Conservative-UKIP marginals in the south and stretching up the east coast its also a case of dissatisfied Labour voters switching over to UKIP too. There are a few Labour held seats in the north where support has drifted off to UKIP and turned them into potential 3 way marginals.

 

[Elvis]

Perhaps theyre targeting it because people in the constituency want it to stay that way ?

Or maybe UKIP have grossly over estimated their appeal to the voting public. I may be wrong but I cannot see them pulling many votes in this seat. To target a seat they must beleave they have a solid core support. I just can't see it in Worthing East and Shoreham. Come May we shall see.