Civil War Brewing in the Ukraine?

[Deleted member 22389]

If the country does split in two , will Western Ukraine gain EU membership before Scotland ?

They would eventually. Thousands would then leave Ukraine like they have Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and other poorer EU countries seeking work most probably here and in Germany where the wages and working conditions are much better.

 

[Czechmate]

Has there been any trouble in Dnipro? I know the Dynamo Kiev game was moved to Cyprus, which makes me think you are wrong here...

No trouble as yet , but natives are becoming restless ! I have friends out there

 

[Czechmate]

Lets not forget , people are being shot on both sides and this mornings trouble was started by the protesters . Let us try and have an unbiased view on this and not a western media view ! The government was democratically elected so to me this is out of order by the protesters , perhaps the police are heavy handed but wouldn't ours be ? , like the miners strike , poll tax riots etc and when protesters start shooting at you then it's obvious the police will fire back.

Don't also forget (which I am sure the Americans haven't and Putin) that important oil/gas pipelines to Russia run through Ukraine , hence the last time the tanks rolled in !

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

If Crimea declares independence as threatened, then Putin has the excuse to send in Russian tanks. It all seems very coreographed, and once he stops being on best behaviour for the Winter Olympics we could have a disaster.

 

[strings]

I remember, about 8 years ago, the Ukrainian (is that a correct word? Ukraini?) ambassador giving a lecture at my University about the effect of the orange revolution. He was talking about what a success it had been for the Ukrainian people.

This, and other popular revolutions (Tunisia, Egypt, the list is long) show how it isn't the revolution that is the important event, it is how the country rebuilds itself thereafter.

 

[Hotchilidog]

I remember, about 8 years ago, the Ukrainian (is that a correct word? Ukraini?) ambassador giving a lecture at my University about the effect of the orange revolution. He was talking about what a success it had been for the Ukrainian people.

This, and other popular revolutions (Tunisia, Egypt, the list is long) show how it isn't the revolution that is the important event, it is how the country rebuilds itself thereafter.

Exactly. It should also caution people about rushing to judgement on the whole good guy/bad guy narrative that we like to distil these events into.

 

[Bakero]

Perestrioka's

Brilliant. And anyone who thinks there's no room for jokes on a serious thread can Crimea river.

 

[Uncle Buck]

Lets not forget , people are being shot on both sides and this mornings trouble was started by the protesters . Let us try and have an unbiased view on this and not a western media view ! The government was democratically elected so to me this is out of order by the protesters , perhaps the police are heavy handed but wouldn't ours be ? , like the miners strike , poll tax riots etc and when protesters start shooting at you then it's obvious the police will fire back.

Don't also forget (which I am sure the Americans haven't and Putin) that important oil/gas pipelines to Russia run through Ukraine , hence the last time the tanks rolled in !

The Government may have been elected, but they have changed the constitution to concentrate power with the president, in effect creating a dictatorship. This is essentially one of the reasons for the protests.

 

[Uncle Buck]

If Crimea declares independence as threatened, then Putin has the excuse to send in Russian tanks. It all seems very coreographed, and once he stops being on best behaviour for the Winter Olympics we could have a disaster.

They already have the Black Sea Fleet sitting in Sevastopol.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

They already have the Black Sea Fleet sitting in Sevastopol.

Exactly. There's a high ethnic Russian population there. Putin would love the excuse to send his tanks to protect them.

 

[Uncle Buck]

Exactly. There's a high ethnic Russian population there. Putin would love the excuse to send his tanks to protect them.

Unless they go in by sea, it is a fair land ride from Russia to the Crimea.

I suspect they would not put troops in, there will be a lot of sabre rattling from Moscow, but it is not like interfering in Georgia, too many NATO countries too close to the Ukraine for Moscow to run the risk of all out war.

 

[Algernon]

As usual with any other country's business that self important, self promoting crushing bore William Hague decides to poke his nose in and start spouting off about their Govt's tactics.
As mentioned above, if it was in our country the exact same measures would be taken against the protesters.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

No chance of UEFA calling off of course, their competition far more important that safety of players and fans.

I cant believe its still going on.

 

[Husty]

Very difficult to get a clear picture of what is actually happening in the Ukraine at the moment. Does anyone really know who the opposition are and how much support there is for them throughout the country?

The current government was the beneficiary of one revolution, and it looks like there maybe another abut to happen and who is to say that that would turn out any better.

From my own admittedly relatively uninformed perspective it does appear that power tends to corrupt who ever gets in charge in the former Soviet Union.

The violence is very frightening but the protestors also seemed to be armed as the have been on the attack this morning reclaiming parts of the square from the police.

Sadly we only seem to be getting one viewpoint from the media with very little information about the complexities of the situation coming to light.

It would be interesting to hear NSC's take on this one.

The problem is a complex one, as you can see from this image of electoral results, it is a nation with a very clear divide.

The Pro-Russian west and the Pro-Europe east. There are very strong language, cultural and historic divides between the two sides of the country. It's not something that is going to be resolved easily or quickly.

 

[Hotchilidog]

The problem is a complex one, as you can see from this image of electoral results, it is a nation with a very clear divide.

The Pro-Russian west and the Pro-Europe east. There are very strong language, cultural and historic divides between the two sides of the country. It's not something that is going to be resolved easily or quickly.

Wow, I did not realise the how clean the divide was. It seems that whoever is in charge, the other half will have a problem with it.

 

[Uncle Buck]

The problem is a complex one, as you can see from this image of electoral results, it is a nation with a very clear divide.

The Pro-Russian west and the Pro-Europe east. There are very strong language, cultural and historic divides between the two sides of the country. It's not something that is going to be resolved easily or quickly.

You mean the pro-Russian East and pro-Europe (was Poland) West.

 

[Surf's Up]

Exactly. There's a high ethnic Russian population there. Putin would love the excuse to send his tanks to protect them.

Didn't the Russians, in the days of the former USSR, deliberately populate their colonies with native Russians to ensure the longevity of the revolution and so that they would always have a reason to retain a degree of control over the future (or absolute control)?

 

[Husty]

Wow, I did not realise the how clean the divide was. It seems that whoever is in charge, the other half will have a problem with it.

That's the thing, it's very easy to 'side' with the protesters, but you have to remember that the entire other half of the country are pro-government (on the whole).
[MENTION=238]Uncle Buck[/MENTION], yes, silly mistake.

 

[brightn'ove]

We've seen this all before - Bosnia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia - it's going to end in war.

 

[Uncle Buck]

Didn't the Russians, in the days of the former USSR, deliberately populate their colonies with native Russians to ensure the longevity of the revolution and so that they would always have a reason to retain a degree of control over the future (or absolute control)?

That was a tactic.

Hence when you go to the Baltics (Riga in particular) the places are full of Russians, who in many cases have refused citizenship of the country they now find themselves in, but really were not born in Russian and so do not go home.

In the Crimea, most cars had a Russian flag on them. Around Yalta a lot of the villas (Dacha’s) were owned by rich Russians. There were some impressive boats down there as well.