I'm actually starting to warm to him too. He seems to be getting his message across much better than I expected. I don't expect him to win the most seats though.
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Cameron v Miliband v Clegg: the official Question Time match thread
- Thread starter Bozza
- Start date
I'm actually starting to warm to him too. He seems to be getting his message across much better than I expected. I don't expect him to win the most seats though.
I don't think supply and confidence necessarily needs a formal agreement though. If he is invited to try and form a government he could, in theory, present a Queens speech and let the various other MPs/parties, in effect, have a free vote on it. And in all likely hood the SNP and others would back it. This is what today's YouGov website suggests.
Like a lot of people I'm learning more about our constitution on a daily basis at the moment. What I have typed is my take but I'm no expert.
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
The SNP will NEVER vote against a Labour Queen Speech and with Cameron saying the Euro referendum is a red line the LibDems will not join a Tory coalition so the Tories need at least 310 seats or more to ensure they will form the next Government
- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,377
Its not though that Milliband is performing better or more likely to win more seats, its that the boundaries mean Labour can get more seats with less votes and they have more potential partners to get him over the line with his minority.
Dick Knights Mumm
Take me Home Falmer Road
No leader worth his salt should avoid debating with his challengers.
It may or may not work as a strategy, but it does little for democracy in this country.
Again, this is what today's alludes Yougov website alludes to but with different figures. It's more about who your enemies are as opposed to who your friends are.
If the Labour Party can do a deal with the Lib Dems that gathers more votes than any other proposed coalition, I reckon the SNP will prop them up in a way they would never do for a Tory led coalition. You could say that perhaps the SNP have played into Labour's hands by pretty much announcing they would simply never allow a Tory government but anything else is on the table.
I don't agree with your point about constituencies but yes, Labour have more potential partners and this will be key.
Stato
Well-known member
- Dec 21, 2011
- 6,603
Its an interesting situation, but Miliband has to gamble because he needs Labour MPs in Scotland. When you consider the consequences its actually not a huge gamble because he knows that the SNP have less options than he does.
The SNP has sworn not to prop up a tory government. Were they to renege on this promise, it would be electoral suicide in left leaning Scotland. This gives them one major imperative post election: Get as much as they can without being perceived as preventing Miliband from forming a government.
Now they may try to play hard ball and seek concessions from Labour, but Miliband will know that should the SNP be in a position to vote down both Tory and Labour programmes and choose to do so, the only thing that can follow (apart from a very unlikely unity government) is another election.
In these circumstances it would seem that the most liklely thing to change in a second election would be a large number of Scots voters realising that they can't have their cake and eat it and switching to Labour. All other things equal, if Labour were to regain half of the SNP seats at the second chance, they would probably be in a position to form a government in coalition with the Lib Dems, leaving the SNP with no influence at all.
Stumpy Tim
Well-known member
He's ruled that out though
- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,377
Wrong, the LD's have said that whilst pro European that an EU referendum was not a red line, "its inevitable" were Cleggs words, whilst they would campain to stay in as would Cameron. It's the same position on EU membership.
LD's have said they would speak first to largest party. I know you're politically deluded, but you really think they would turn down government again? The Lib Dems are probably more likely to want to be in governement during said EU referendum than on outside looking in, as both Clegg and Cameron will do best to ensure the vote is a stich up resulting in staying in.
What you say about boundaries is true, but I don't believe that's why the odds on Milliband only drifted slightly. After all, they didn't change the electoral boundaries last night.
But the FPTP system is busted, and the House Of Lords is an undemocratic anomaly that also needs addressing, urgently. Whatever the coalition turns out to be, I hope it works, because two successive coalition governments will make a mockery of the "benefits" of FPTP.
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
Wishful thinking, why would they join a coalition with a party wanting a referendum when they can do a deal with one who won't ?
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Although I don't think he wanted to, Ed did actually rule out confidence-and-supply last night (he was talking about deals and coalitions, trying to make them synonymous, and trying to restrict 'deal' to 'coalition'; it was only when he was pressed on the issue of confidence-and-supply that he ruled it out).
For me, the most likely scenario is that the Tories will just get the largest number of seats. The Lib Dems will talk to them, but together they'll realise that another coalition is a non-starter, because between them they'll have c300-310 seats. Labour will then talk to the Lib Dems, with a combined total of c300 seats, and they'll form a coalition, seeking support from the SNP on an issue-by-issue basis.
Because the issue isn't going away. Let's get this referendum done, as the pro-EUs will rightly win with ease.
Stumpy Tim
Well-known member
I think that's a fair reflection. I agree with that. Ed will come across as a politician who stands firm on his promises & will win the re-run.
No criticism from me. I said a couple of months ago that the Tories had been really smart on this and had people on here saying that I was wrong and it was showing Cameron up to be a chicken, etc
Mellor 3 Ward 4
Well-known member
Clegg said that he give first dibs on forming a Government to the Party with the most seats/most votes.
As has been shown before, he'll drop his knickers to anyone - he'll form a coalition with anyone. Question is, how many seats will the Lib Dems have?
Me neither. I'd love to blame Cameron for refusing but I can't. Trial by television is not the way we've ever done things here. I think it's dangerous.
1) What is he supposed to do? It's not his fault his party's policies occupy the middle ground to the extent that both Labour and Conservatives will work with them.
2) He won't form a coalition with anyone. He has ruled out being involved with UKIP and the SNP. Did you miss that bit?
