[Politics] Brexit

[Herr Tubthumper]

this is a myth created in the last couple of weeks by the remain camp. in reality being out of EU means we can unilaterally cut tariffs. i cant understand how EU remainers can say with a straight face that EU will improve our trade with other nations when the entire purpose of the EU and its forebears is to create a protectist bloc and restrict trade from the rest of the world. example, the Raspberry Pi was originally intended to be manufactured wholly in the UK, unfortunatly the import tariffs on some components made that uneconomical, it was cheaper to have the boards made abroad before importing (on a lower tariff) for final assembly. this is to protect old barely economically functional component manufactuers in the EU, who can no longer produce components to the specification or quality required. the EU will not negotiate meaningful trade deals across the world, its not in its interest to do so.

This doesn't make any sense. In the first paragraph you're stating the EU only seeks to protect itself. In the last paragraph you claim the EU has no interest in negotiating meaningful trade deals. Make your mind up.

 

[beorhthelm]

This doesn't make any sense. In the first paragraph you're stating the EU only seeks to protect itself. In the last paragraph you claim the EU has no interest in negotiating meaningful trade deals. Make your mind up.

i can only imagine the Berlin beer has been heavily supped last night, these points are entirely consistant with each other. look up protectism if still misunderstanding.

 

[Hampster Gull]

on the other hand, Sterling drops and asset values drop so inward investment increases, more jobs. also no or lower tariffs on all products outside the EU, which is far greater, means lower prices even after Sterling drop. global influence is largly based on military and soft power, neither of which are impacted by leaving EU. so its really not a simple as you think.

Agree not as simple as either of our comments suggest. However Inward investment highly unlikely to increase as the eu market becomes an external market to us with associated tariffs. Easier to invest in eastern Europe. We may be able to negotiate lower tariffs with countries outside europe (big "may") but our geographical position in the world means we will over time become even less important for these markets. Lower sterling and lower prices in a world without helicopter cash and when the UK runs a huge trading deficit in the world is a nonsense. It will mean lower export prices but we need markets to export to and we need to get ourmanufacturing into shape.

 

[beorhthelm]

Agree not as simple as either of our comments suggest. However Inward investment highly unlikely to increase as the eu market becomes an external market to us with associated tariffs. Easier to invest in eastern Europe. We may be able to negotiate lower tariffs with countries outside europe (big "may")

its easier to invest in UK because this is simply a good and transparent place to do business. there is more to investment than producing products for the EU market, especially as we are service heavy. there is no "may" about unilaterally cutting tariffs, we can just do that. these are complex multi-dimension matters, which can not simply boiled down to "leave EU, no investment will come". some may not, other might find it more attractive. the Remain camp treat everything as a binary, in out, trade no-trade, its simply not true. like that £4300 we arent going to get.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

What is Kate Hoey going to tell me in that clip which I hang heard her say before? I'm fully aware of her opinion on this referendum.

So if I'm already aware of the opinion of Corbyn, Balls, Cameron, Osborne and others on the Remain side I shouldn't bother listening to them either.

Oh, and still waiting for your defence of the supermarkets....

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Interesting line from Ed Balls on Peston's show this morning:

Former shadow chancellor says freedom of movement in EU not working properly

National editor, ITV News, tweets


Big line @pestononsunday from @edballs about freedom of movement - he says has to be looked at again

 

[portslade seagull]

Interesting line from Ed Balls on Peston's show this morning:

Former shadow chancellor says freedom of movement in EU not working properly

National editor, ITV News, tweets


Big line @pestononsunday from @edballs about freedom of movement - he says has to be looked at again

According to our plethora of remainer on here it is though. Another politician they will now have to dissect, oh wait a minute he is a remainer what will they do

 

[Hampster Gull]

its easier to invest in UK because this is simply a good and transparent place to do business. there is more to investment than producing products for the EU market, especially as we are service heavy. there is no "may" about unilaterally cutting tariffs, we can just do that. these are complex multi-dimension matters, which can not simply boiled down to "leave EU, no investment will come". some may not, other might find it more attractive. the Remain camp treat everything as a binary, in out, trade no-trade, its simply not true. like that £4300 we arent going to get.

We are a good and transparent place to invest. But why invest in the london financial centre when frankfurt becomes the lead financial centre for europe? Are the germans less good and transparent? Why invest in manufacturing when new tariffs for trading with Europe are added to the cheaper costs of producing eastern Europe. There is a "may" on cutting tariffs. We can cut any tariff for goods into the uk but only a clown would do that without getting the same for the markets we enter so its a "may" as its not in our hands. And many politicians like protectionism so not sure low tariffs is a given as assumed. And you think the remain camp presents things binary, the implication being the quitters present a far more complex and nuanced argument....

 

[portslade seagull]

We are a good and transparent place to invest. But why invest in the london financial centre when frankfurt becomes the lead financial centre for europe? Are the germans less good and transparent? Why invest in manufacturing when new tariffs for trading with Europe are added to the cheaper costs of producing eastern Europe. There is a "may" on cutting tariffs. We can cut any tariff for goods into the uk but only a clown would do that without getting the same for the markets we enter so its a "may" as its not in our hands. And many politicians like protectionism so not sure low tariffs is a given as assumed. And you think the remain camp presents things binary, the implication being the quitters present a far more complex and nuanced argument....

Can you now answer the 4300 question that you have all swerved. One of your major arguments and you still cannot back it up

 

[beorhthelm]

We are a good and transparent place to invest. But why invest in the london financial centre when frankfurt becomes the lead financial centre for europe? Are the germans less good and transparent?

the answer to this is in the question "why isnt Frankfurt the lead finance senter for Europe?". i dont know the answers to that, though theres an anacdotal reply that you will know if youre ever stuck in Frankfurt on a Friday night - insinuating its a drab place. London will continue to be a leading finance center out of EU, along side those other finance centers already outside the EU. the fact people say it will move to Frankfurt or Paris highlights the problem with the argument that it will move: to which one? will either gain the critical mass to establish dominance? would the Germans/French allow the other to do so? maybe they can move it each quater like the parliament.

Manufacturing may want a base in Europe for cost of shipping or proximity to clients, with tariffs a distant concern - i.e. high value, low volume manufacturing that we are particulaly good at. even for high volume you are making the simple flawed assumption that EU is the main market. the Nissan factory ships most its product outside the EU and has already said EU membership will have no impact on investment.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Can you now answer the 4300 question that you have all swerved. One of your major arguments and you still cannot back it up

I think you are missing the point. The key point is the Treasury thinks that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK economy, reducing its output by a considerable amount. It dwarfs the savings from contributing to the EU budget, much of which we get back anyway.

 

[Jim in the West]

I've been looking up some trade figures.
In 2015 tthe UK imported 89 billion pounds worth more than it exported to the Eurozone. It would seem that the EU needs us far more than we need them yet we are paying vast sums to them for this '.privilage'
Since 1999 the gap between what we have traded outside of the Eu and what we have traded with them has grown year on year. It was virtually fifty fifty back then but we now trade more across the world than what we do with the EU members and with a stagnating economy in the EU this gap will continue to grow This has probably been mentioned before but i'm not trawling back through the entire thread.

I'm astounded that so many still want to stay in this Un Democratic, beaurocratic money pit whose leaders are answerable to no one.
What originally started as a trading agreement has grown in to a political dictatorship that can inflict laws and regulations at will .and we are powerless to stop them. Has society been so dumbed down over the last 30 years that many blindly believe what they are told by a prejudiced press and media. ?

Weatherman, the issue isn't the absolute value of trade, but the RELATIVE value. The problem is that the EU accounts for about 45% of our trade, whilst for the rest of the EU we account for only around 6% - 8% of their trade. To put it another way, imagine I am quite well off and you are not so rich. I earn (say) £300k a year, and I sell you cloud services at around £20k pa. You have a business selling weather forecasting software, and make a profit of about £30k pa. I am your main customer, and I spend £15k pa with you. In other words, I sell stuff worth £20k to you, and you sell stuff worth £15k to me. Theoretically (according to your argument), I am much more important to you than the other way around. However, as far as I am concerned you only make up about 7% of my income. If I lose you as a customer I'm not worried, as the other 93% of my business is still there. On the other hand, if I walk away, you have lost 50% of your income overnight.

Forgive the simplistic nature of this example, and I hope I'm not coming across as condescending. However, I think this is a really important issue, which the rhetoric of the Brexit campaign completely ignores.

And, when it comes to democracy, the UK is hugely undemocratic, and broadly run by a load of old Etonians who couldn't care a f*ck about most of us. But that's a different issue!

 

[Hampster Gull]

the answer to this is in the question "why isnt Frankfurt the lead finance senter for Europe?". i dont know the answers to that, though theres an anacdotal reply that you will know if youre ever stuck in Frankfurt on a Friday night - insinuating its a drab place. London will continue to be a leading finance center out of EU, along side those other finance centers already outside the EU. the fact people say it will move to Frankfurt or Paris highlights the problem with the argument that it will move: to which one? will either gain the critical mass to establish dominance? would the Germans/French allow the other to do so? maybe they can move it each quater like the parliament.

For sure a UK out of the EU will lose its preeminence as a financial institution in europe and over time globally. It will be in the EUs interest to have the financial engine on its own soil. Regulation will quickly make things move. Where? Frankfurt, Paris? Doesn't really matter, it won't be london. And that will have a huge impact on our economy, jobs, asset prices, wages.

Traiffs will never be a distant concern to a business, well not in any business i have worked in or understand.

 

[Hamilton]

this is a myth created in the last couple of weeks by the remain camp. in reality being out of EU means we can unilaterally cut tariffs. i cant understand how EU remainers can say with a straight face that EU will improve our trade with other nations when the entire purpose of the EU and its forebears is to create a protectist bloc and restrict trade from the rest of the world. example, the Raspberry Pi was originally intended to be manufactured wholly in the UK, unfortunatly the import tariffs on some components made that uneconomical, it was cheaper to have the boards made abroad before importing (on a lower tariff) for final assembly. this is to protect old barely economically functional component manufactuers in the EU, who can no longer produce components to the specification or quality required. the EU will not negotiate meaningful trade deals across the world, its not in its interest to do so.

That is just not true. You can't just make stuff up. You can't cry foul when there is no basis for that claim. The raspberry pi example is probably more to do with production costs, specs and just in time delivery.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

 

[beorhthelm]

Forgive the simplistic nature of this example, and I hope I'm not coming across as condescending. However, I think this is a really important issue, which the rhetoric of the Brexit campaign completely ignores.

it not so much condescending as wrong, its another myth that didnt exist few months ago. any business that discarded 15k of business regardless of whether its 50% or 7%. in fact, it may be easier for the smaller company to find a new single deal to cover that revenue than the larger company that may struggle to grow or create new business. while the politicans might like to be carefree about that 7% UK trade, its not their businesses suffering. major exporters arent going to want to see their large UK market being eroded due to punitive tariffs, encouraging us to go elsewhere. or indeed, build ourselves...

 

[Two Professors]

Won't it be great when all these financial 'geniuses' are replaced by computer algorithms-then we might get answers to questions instead of the incessant waffle coming out of the Remain camp!
As for Porky Cameron's latest load of bull,when we leave the 8% tarriffs applied to imported food will no longer apply and countries can compete to supply us again,lowering prices still further.

 

[beorhthelm]

For sure a UK out of the EU will lose its preeminence as a financial institution in europe and over time globally. It will be in the EUs interest to have the financial engine on its own soil. Regulation will quickly make things move.

right, just as its in their interests to have Euro and Eurobond trading in the Eurozone not London... oh wait thats not the case is it? the evidence of what the hypothetical future of the finance industry might look like can be seen in how it currently is, how London has the critical mass and further expansion of this industry has come here, not Paris or Frankfurt. that isnt going to change.

That is just not true. You can't just make stuff up. You can't cry foul when there is no basis for that claim. The raspberry pi example is probably more to do with production costs, specs and just in time delivery.

yes, production cost due to the high tariffs on importing compents than pre-fabbed boards. its was from Upton himself back in the early days of the RPi project when challenged why they would no longer be wholley manufactured in the UK as promised. probably still on the forums if you cared to dig it up.

 

[Hamilton]

yes, production cost due to the high tariffs on importing compents than pre-fabbed boards. its was from Upton himself back in the early days of the RPi project when challenged why they would no longer be wholley manufactured in the UK as promised. probably still on the forums if you cared to dig it up.

I was referring to your statement about 'myths'. It's totally misleading.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

 

[Hampster Gull]

right, just as its in their interests to have Euro and Eurobond trading in the Eurozone not London... oh wait thats not the case is it? the evidence of what the hypothetical future of the finance industry might look like can be seen in how it currently is, how London has the critical mass and further expansion of this industry has come here, not Paris or Frankfurt. that isnt going to change.

Euro and eurobond trading! Yes, yes, that will continue. But to think the the EU will not wants its own financial hub at the centre of their community is a bizarre. To think that they will not give preference in regulation to their City is a nonsense. Even now we are fighting to keep the City from being disadvantaged becuase we are not in the euro. But because we have a voice at the table we can shape. Crossing your fingers and hoping all will be ok in a hypothetical future is not a sensible way to run a country. We are doing well now, long may it continue

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I think you are missing the point. The key point is the Treasury thinks that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK economy, reducing its output by a considerable amount. It dwarfs the savings from contributing to the EU budget, much of which we get back anyway.

No, YOU quoted the £4,300 so now answer the questions. You should be prepared to back up your quotes.