Wokeworrier
Active member
I countered one of the points previously,
- Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the UK has held up well since 2016 in contrast to predictions that it would slump after Brexit. Greenfield FDI into the UK rose by a third between 2016 and 2021 and was the highest of any large European economy in every year in this period.
Some EU based businesses have of course set up subsiduaries in the UK to counter some of the issues of trading between EU and UK post Brexit, looking at that without subtracting the likes of Easy Jet and many other businesses shifting the bulk of their operations away from the UK and into the EU and the loss of EU agencies that were UK based, particularly the EMA, is nonsense.
Lloyds of London will be Lloyds of Brussells for EU business, Panasonic and Sony had EU headquarters in the UK, now in the Netherlands.
This one is just not true, the pandemic saw some wild fluctuations, and if you cherry pick the month there are one or two where the balance is better, but in most it is worse.
- Far from collapsing as some claim, UK trade with the EU has fully recovered after some initial disruption, despite increased trade frictions. Underlying trade levels are close to long-term trends. The UK’s trade balance with the EU has improved – implying a boost to growth – and even sectors like food and fish have seen exports to the EU proving remarkably resilient.
Bear in mind the graph is also in GBP, which you need a few more of post 2016 to buy the same amount of goods from the EU.
UK-EU trade in goods 2023 | Statista
As of the fourth quarter of 2023, the value of goods exported to the European Union from the United Kingdom was almost 45.4 billion British pounds, compared with 79.8 billion pounds of goods imported, resulting in a negative goods trade balance with the EU of around 34.2 billion pounds.www.statista.com
This report was out a month after the article you reference.
https://www.aston.ac.uk/latest-news/brexit-changes-caused-229-slump-uk-eu-exports-q1-2022-research
The only really fair point the article you reference makes, is that it is too soon to expect to see any beneficial result from Brexit, I mean, I don't really expect to see anything ever, but it will take time to dredge the Tees and kill off all the Marine life in the area to create the Freeport and associated warehouses. Once that has been built, we are selling Pork to South Korea, and maybe get some other trade deals done, we can really see how all the disruption and loss of freedoms and protections in the EU really has changed our lives for the better, or not.
In the mean time, we can just look on at what we are losing, and try and keep track so that when we get that "Brexit Dividend" we can tell whether it is just a 90th minute consolation goal, a lifeline to avoid relegation to L1, or a match winner.
My apologies, I must have missed it as the reply was a considerable amount of time after my post. Saying that your response doesn't seem to be really serious/credible as trying to explain away strong inward investment amounting to Billions of Dollars as some EU-based businesses setting up subsidiaries in the Uk seems a bit silly.
As to your other link, the balance fluctuates but does support the view that underlying trade levels are close to long-term trends. Net foreign investment seems to be doing reasonably well this year.
United Kingdom Net Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Direct Investment in the United Kingdom decreased by 935 GBP Million in the third quarter of 2023. This page provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Net Foreign Direct Investment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...
tradingeconomics.com
