Bleacher Report on football gambling/Tony Bloom

[Stat Brother]

This thread does show one trait that is worth noting, how the 'pros' bet on single's and how a 'near miss' 9 fold was simply a losing bet

5-live had an interesting segment on gambling in Sport.

One part of that was 'amateur' gambling isn't about the winning or losing.
The reason why we gamble is for the 'near miss' emotional rollacoaster.

 

[The Rivet]

That was a really good read. Anyone who has tried to 'judge' when a machine might pay out or wondered about balance of probabilities would understand the use of predictive programming. Addictive if you get involved I would say!

 

[Justice]

At last an explanation of some of our more recent up and down performances.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

I dare say that the mere ownership of the premises in Camden makes a significant contribution to the Bloom portfolio of wealth.

 

[Marlton & Hove Albion]

Why not play an active Moneyball game with The Albion? His data indicates (by player) the odds of success, so assemble a squad capable of promotion. He'll keep losing 3M-5M a year in The Championship, so that can't be his goal as a successful businessman. FFP is a barrier I suppose but wasn't for Leicester or QPR. He'll know the payoff (Prem money plus increased value of the club) vs. the investment necessary and the risks (he has the data apparently), so why aren't we involved in that game?

 

[Colonel Angus]

It may be that he does not consider the Moneyball approach applies so well to football and that undervalued players are harder to find so that he'd have to spend more than he wants to pick the right players.

Moneyball as a concept works brilliantly in baseball where the batter - pitcher one-on-one conflict determines most of the game, whereas in football players need to blend into a good team and stats may not guarantee that they will pull together in the right way.

 

[Prince Monolulu]

how the 'pros' bet on single's and how a 'near miss' 9 fold was simply a losing bet

Agreed, the multi-bets are a bookies dream. The big singles do the damage.

 

[Justice]

Agreed, the multi-bets are a bookies dream. The big singles do the damage.

A friend of my betting on singles from a £500 bankroll managed to get his account up to £10k he reckons Albion v Blackpool at 4/3 is the pick of the bunch on Saturday.

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

His wealth has somewhat been confirmed of sorts.

 

[wakeytom]

Has the new rules around officials and betting on football not affected him, if the article is true he is doing exactly what FIFA/FA etc are trying to stop by people in "power" betting on matches?

 

[wakeytom]

A good read

Quants, the people who write the algorithms, usually hold Doctorates in maths, so are ultimo brainy

They are also employed in the financial sectors, including hedge funds, where their programmes might 'own' shares for split seconds, but when done at crazy speeds and millions of times a minute, vast profits acrue

There's a good novel by Robert Harris called 'The Fear Index', that gives a good insight into algorithmic manipulation of stock market dealings, which is probably close to how the football Asian Handicap market is dealt with also

My parents bought me that for me last xmas - not got round to it yet

 

[Farehamseagull]

I do find Bloom fascinating.

 

[Prince Monolulu]

I do find Bloom fascinating.

Agreed, certainly has that enigmatic draw, definitely more so than the corporate PB.

 

[Harry H]

Until Human Beings change from "What can we get?" to "What can we give?"........We're stuffed.
Only a matter of time,

 

[Pintos]

A friend of my betting on singles from a £500 bankroll managed to get his account up to £10k he reckons Albion v Blackpool at 4/3 is the pick of the bunch on Saturday.

Albion at 4/3 would be pick of the bunch...they're 4/7.

I found the article very interesting.
It gives me faith that Bloom is more likely to be right about Sami, squad changes etc. than some of the buffoons on this board!

 

[rcf0712]

thanks for that, fascinating, didn't realise TB was quite so minted....

 

[Sergei's Celebration]

Why not play an active Moneyball game with The Albion? His data indicates (by player) the odds of success, so assemble a squad capable of promotion. He'll keep losing 3M-5M a year in The Championship, so that can't be his goal as a successful businessman. FFP is a barrier I suppose but wasn't for Leicester or QPR. He'll know the payoff (Prem money plus increased value of the club) vs. the investment necessary and the risks (he has the data apparently), so why aren't we involved in that game?

Bill James and Billy Beane (sic) have both acknowledged that it is harder to find a winning formula in football. The stats indicate that a win in football is down to 50% skill and 50% luck, increasing skill in a team decreases the chance of a lose not increasing the chance of a win.

Also just for the hell of it I will point out there is zero correlation between the number of corners a team gets to the number of goals it scores.

The moneyball approach of identifying value players is used, the use of stats to determine the skill of one player vs another and all that stuff is used.

Brighton is used as an example of how to get results on a budget, we're a bit oakland a's but less high profile in a pool of teams doing the same.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Bill James and Billy Beane (sic) have both acknowledged that it is harder to find a winning formula in football. The stats indicate that a win in football is down to 50% skill and 50% luck, increasing skill in a team decreases the chance of a lose not increasing the chance of a win.

Ludicrous comment...If we brought in Messi & Ronaldo our chances of a win would comfortably increase

 

[Sergei's Celebration]

Bill James and Billy Beane (sic) have both acknowledged that it is harder to find a winning formula in football. The stats indicate that a win in football is down to 50% skill and 50% luck, increasing skill in a team decreases the chance of a lose not increasing the chance of a win.

Ludicrous comment...If we brought in Messi & Ronaldo our chances of a win would comfortably increase

They are outside our 'value' tho.

Oh and dont muddle odds and stats.

 

[ozzygull]

Did that flag of him as the god father ever get made. If it didn't it really should. Sorry I cant find the thread with the image it.

found the image. Seems even more appropriate after reading that.