A betting dilemna - what would you do ?

[Uncle Spielberg]

I have a dilemna which I need your advice on.

I have backed England to win the Rugby World Cup with £ 20 at 33/1. If they win Saturday I will trouser £ 680.

Now the betting is South Africa 1/2 outright , England 9/4 outright

I could sit tight and be bold and live or die by England to win £ 680, a £ 660 profit or I could lay my bet off and ensure I will make a £ 200 profit either way.

I can do this by betting:

South Africa to win £ 450 at 1/2 = £ 675 returns, £ 225 profit - £ 460 stakes
= £ 215 net profit

England win £ 20 at 33/1 = £ 680 - £ 450 = £ 230 net profit

What would you do ?.

( draw not in equation as betting on winning cup only )

 

[Bozza]

I'd lay off. Always lay off.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

S Africa £ 675 - £ 470 stakes = £ 205 profit
England £ 680 - £ 470 stakes = £ 210 profit

Should read

 

[Tooting Gull]

Basically, you are in a position to profit at all from a very good bet made on England at 33-1. I'd want at least some return from that very good bet, so I'd lay it off to guarantee at least £200 profit.

 

[Napper]

keep the bet , if you lose then only £20 down. Keep the faith

 

[Bozza]

A couple of points...

1. I don't think you'll be able to get 1/2 anywhere. Best I can see is 2/5 currently.

2. If you do lay off, make sure you lay off on South Africa to win the World Cup, not South Africa to win the World Cup final since, if you did this, an 80 minute draw would sink both your bets.

 

[jonnyboylennon]

I'd lay off but only so if the Saffies win I'd make £100 profit. That way your keep your loyalty to england and will be better rewarded if they do win it.

If they dont a nice £100 profit will cushion the blow.

 

[TWOCHOICEStom]

go for the big bucks. Think of it as you paying for England to win!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I am in mind to sit tight and be bold at the moment

 

[beorhthelm]

it not only £20 now, theres £200 on the table so thats what is being bet.

 

[Dover]

Uncle. Ask Dave the Gaffer.

 

[Publius Ovidius]

Uncle. Ask Dave the Gaffer.

the pressure will be on SAffies. They have beaten England the last few times they have played them.as had Australia and France..they are expected to win. the have better backs, not as good pack and I would say fullbacks are about equal( not counting Monty's kicking, which is marginally better than Wilkinsons.)

England on the other had have been written off by everyone since the first game, including many on here who like me watch a lot of rugby,if they stick to their gameplan, feed the forwards and basically kill the game as they did against France they will win. It will not be pretty....they will kick and try to keep SA down in their half as much as possible and keep the ball away from the wings. that is why I dont think Lewsey's injury is that catastrophic.

Personally I dont understand betting at all, and I would look to recover the most you can, therefore as betting is all about taking a risk, I would stick it all on England.....but as I say I havent a clue how it all works.

 

[Peter Grummit]

I'd lay off but only so if the Saffies win I'd make £100 profit. That way your keep your loyalty to england and will be better rewarded if they do win it.

If they dont a nice £100 profit will cushion the blow.

Wot he said.

Keeps the incentive for you to really shout for England but knowing you are 3 figures up whatever.

Good for you for keeping the faith.

PG

 

[NMH]

You had a choice to bet on a different side at lower odds, so why waver now your bet is in the final?

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

The consensus on the handicap bets seems to be a 7 point head start for England and then 10/11 or evens for both sides. Even knowing that England are a different side to the team that lost 36-0 I think thats low. Worth £20 on it, which if it came off would cover your original stake.

 

[maffew]

I'd lay it, but only to the tune of £300. So you'll still get a £100 profit at best odds of 2/5 and you still get to cheer the England for the bigger money

 

[Marshy]

Can't believe you did'nt go each way on England in the first place.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

hardly worth it

 

[East Staffs Gull]

Are all those people who are advocating laying off the bet going to put their money where their mouth is and bet on a SA win?

Personally, I'd pay money for an England win and am tempted to put a bet on SA. The only time I ever bet against the Albion I won and then put all the winnings on another Albion defeat a fortnight later, which also delivered.

 

[Peppermint Tea]

Lay the lot...if England wins you won't care about the money. If England loses then it will sugar coat the pill.