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[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
- Start date
Two Professors
Two Mad Professors
You'll be telling me next all these poncey salons are in Anderlecht!
East Preston Gull
New member
What about remaining in the EU.
Greece is defunct, Italy is on the verge of financial meltdown, France is a basket case, Spain, Portugal and Poland too.
Ireland is struggling and it's youth are off to other countries at an alarming rate.
I will guarantee that Britain and Germany are going to have to bail out the EU. Forget our veto, it means nothing.
I worry that the EU army, which will happen with or without us, is going to antagonise that lunatic Putin and undermine Nato.
I feel we are at more risk from remaining than we are at leaving.
We are told that we are not really in a European Union. The fact that we are holding this referendum to Remain or Leave and not Join or Not Join tells me we have to get away from this rotting corpse.
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For you and [MENTION=14132]Two Professors[/MENTION]
Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer. The survey asked economists for their professional opinions on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU and the single market on a variety of economic indicators, including real GDP and unemployment.
Now, we can debate what the economists mean by the words 'likely', but I think it is safe to say that it's their understanding that the word reflects a belief that the probability of something happening is quite high.
Of the 639 economists who responded:
72% thought it the most likely outcome would be a negative impact on UK real GDP over the next 10 to 20 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. This compares with 11% who thought that a positive impact on real GDP would be the most likely outcome.
88% thought it most likely that real GDP would be negatively impacted in the next 5 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. 4% thought GDP would be positively impacted over the same time period and the 7% thought GDP would be broadly unaffected.
Of those stating that a negative impact on GDP in the next 5 years would be most likely, a majority cited loss of access to the single market (67%) and increased uncertainty leading to reduced investment (66%).
73% of respondents thought that real household incomes in the UK would be lower over the next 10 to 20 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. This compares with 10% who thought that incomes would rise and 13% who thought that incomes would be broadly unaffected.
Opinions on the longer term effects on unemployment were more mixed. 45% thought that the UK unemployment rate would be higher over the next 10 to 20 years if the UK left the EU and the single market. However, 33% of respondents felt that the unemployment rate would be broadly unaffected and 17% thought the unemployment rate would be lower. (This last statistic is the most optimistic statistic from IPSOS MORI's findings).
68% of respondents thought that the UK leaving the EU and the single market would increase the risk of the economy experiencing a serious negative shock. 22% thought it would make no difference and 8% thought it would reduce the risk.
But we will not be bailing out the EU. We have not bailed out any Eurozone economy. These are yet against pure lies being spread by the leave campaign. They are doing you a disservice.
There will NOT be a European army. Even if every country wants one bar the UK, it would need a Treaty and the UK would not sign up to that.
We are in a European Union. It enables us to collaborate, trade, share information, negotiate together, move freely - all positives that make a vast part of our continent a better place.
Albumen
Don't wait for me!
Your mum?The internet isn't just full of daisy-weaving nice people-criminals know how to use it,tor don't they target smug people?
Have you ever heard of social media? It's all about the now. It'll be OK.
Pretty pink fairy
Banned
- Jan 30, 2008
- 31,981
East Preston Gull
New member
I am sorry but I just don't believe this.
We have already gone way beyond the original common market.
I do not trust the European commission one bit and I suppose that is what it will come down too for us all. Good luck to all of us in our decisions and let's hope we can all get back to just hating palace afterwards( unless you are a palace supporter, and they can hate themselves)
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The European Commission can't make us bail out an economy. You don't have to not believe it - it's a fact. It just can't happen.
lawros left foot
Glory hunting since 1969
Please don't try and patronise or insult me.
How can you vote in favour of leaving if you have not a clue about any specifics of what a Brexiteers would entail?
The leave campaign should at least, be able to give us a certain time scale, they say two years, but that is how long it took Greenland to leave, and things are a bit more complicated for us.
We aren't voting on a manifesto, because neither side has presented one, in the case of the inners, this is understandable, as things will remain much the same, and Cameron's concessions won earlier in the year form a small change to our membership.
The Outers have not given any specifics on just about anything, just a very vague promise that things will be better out of the EU, how that will happen, they don't know, because nobody knows. When a Government is elected in a General election, there are certain constants, we will not have to negotiate new trade deals, we will not have to change our whole long term economic plan, ( yes, I know parties will say they are different, but generally our core financial systems don't change).
With us leaving the EU, everything may change , and I say may, because I have no more of an idea what would happen, than you, or Boris or Gideon.
I would like more certainties before I burn my bridges
Two Professors
Two Mad Professors
Pretty pink fairy
Banned
- Jan 30, 2008
- 31,981
simple simon says , do really think it would be the end of the UK economy LONG TERM ,IF SO YOU'RE MORE OF A FOOL THAN I THOUGHT AND NOTHING BUT A DEFEATIST
regards
DR
melias shoes
Well-known member
- Oct 14, 2010
- 4,830
My eyes are wide open and they are a brighter future OUT of the EU.
Baldseagull
Well-known member
So are you saying, leave the E.U. because they need our help too much? Not very British of you.
Two Professors
Two Mad Professors
100% of German scientists in 1939 said Einstein was a loony and his theories were the mad ramblings of a sub-human.Were they right?
Two Professors
Two Mad Professors
Maybe you could start a charity for them?
100% of German scientists never said he was a loony. You've got to stop pedalling mistruths.
daveinprague
New member
Who, the Jewish guy in 1939?
Billy the Fish
Technocrat
You're misunderstanding the process. The Brexit campaign aren't in a position to do any of that. The vote is just a mandate from the people.
Once they have that mandate the government and civil service will have to work out and negotiate an exit strategy. It will take years to see what it looks like and it's too complicated for anyone from either side to predict.
Pretty pink fairy
Banned
- Jan 30, 2008
- 31,981
