[Politics] Brexit

Herr Tubthumper · May 15, 2016

beorhthelm said:
you're ok with them lieing outright about the effects of leaving? i suppose in at any cost for you. personally i accept there would be a small negative effect for a few years, but the medium and longer term is simply too unpredictable to make any real claim. to then take GDP and divide by households is a gross distortion of their own projection - how many have a household income of ~ £75k which is the equvilient figure today, and about 3 times the actual number post tax. to then insinuate that this is an immediate effect is shamefull lieing. why cant they keep to the facts, even their own speculative forecasts without resorting to such measures? i suppose because they dont want to have a proper debate, just ram home the fear of leaving. its been a sad debate with too little proper infomation from either side.

It's pretty damn obvious that the Remain figure is a forecast. It's pretty damn obvious that Brexit figures are forecasts as well. I've listened and decided what I think is most likely to happen. And even you admit there will be "a small negative effect" for a few years. There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict. You might be able to, they can't, and I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives.

beorhthelm · May 15, 2016

Green Cross Code Man said:
No, not at all. I quite like him actually. However, I believe at heart, he is not impressed by the EU. In fact, that stands for almost all the remain camp. All everyone seems to say about remaining is how much worse off we'll all be rather than how wonderful it is going to be. Rather sad really when those in favour are not that enthusiastic either.

true. they have never really attempted to sell us staying in, rather tell us the potential costs of the alternative, while convieniently ignoring the potential costs of staying in. we didnt just go into this referendum on a whim, its beacuse for over 20 years people have questioned why we should be involved in the EU as it walks inevitably towards a unified state of Europe with central governance, fiscal and monetry control from foreign institutions. as the second largest economy, we are expect to pay the second biggest burden to prop up the weaker, poorer countries, with nothing in return for the 80% of the economy that has no business with Europe. its not a very good deal.

pastafarian · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
It's pretty damn obvious that the Remain figure is a forecast. It's pretty damn obvious that Brexit figures are forecasts as well. I've listened and decided what I think is most likely to happen. And even you admit there will be "a small negative effect" for a few years. There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict. You might be able to, they can't, and I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives.

you must have been beside yourself with rage when the EU forced its selfish attitudes onto the breadline Greeks

Herr Tubthumper · May 15, 2016

pastafarian said:
you must have been beside yourself with rage when the EU forced its selfish attitudes onto the breadline Greeks

As I have said numerous times, if the Greeks were not wanting the deal they wouldn't have voted to remain in the EU about 3 times in 12 months including post deal when the government stood down. Or is your arrogance such that you know better than the Greek nation?

Herr Tubthumper · May 15, 2016

I've got a nice bottle of Cabinet Sauvignon to finish off now, so I'll have to leave you to it. Happy debating.

GoldWithFalmer · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
I've got a nice bottle of Cabinet Sauvignon to finish off now, so I'll have to leave you to it. Happy debating.

Enjoy your evening.....hopefully this thread will be on the back burner for all the right reasons tomorrow...UTA

Hampster Gull · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
It's pretty damn obvious that the Remain figure is a forecast. It's pretty damn obvious that Brexit figures are forecasts as well. I've listened and decided what I think is most likely to happen. And even you admit there will be "a small negative effect" for a few years. There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict. You might be able to, they can't, and I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives.

Weighing up the relative merits HT I agree with you. Its pretty clear some on here though are willing to gamble with financial security of some of the most vunerable by gambling on the unknown.

beorhthelm · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
... There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict.

nice to try and resort to emotion and claiming to look after the poor, but those on the breadline would be in reciept of many benefits, so have zero impact on them. for those it will effect, its based on forecast so it is money in the future they do not have, so will never actually lose it. back to the real story, your friend Osborne is claiming the average household lose £4300 a year, from GDP losing 0.1 a year, when it would take decade and a half to get that number, and they wouldnt be £4300 better off if we stay in, GDP is predicted to be 6% larger.

GDP increase does not equate directly to houshold income, as i say, the real effect will be around a third, if it is measurable amongst the background noise of all other economic policy over the next 15 years.

GT49er · May 15, 2016

Lincoln Imp said:
A genuine request for your opinion - do you feel underlying political persuasions affect the view people people have on Brexit?

Good question - so I will try to answer it seriously. I don't think underlying political persuasions affect people's views, but, sadly, I believe they will affect the way they vote. Echoes of 1975, in a way.
Back then, wavering voters would be asked, "Do you really want to support that nasty leftie Commie Trotskyite Red-under-the-bed Tony Benn?" Many voted to join as a result.
Those of a more independent mind-set, who weren't swayed by that argument would then be asked, "So you are on the side of that Racist, Fascist, right wing Tory Enoch Powell, then?" And hey presto, another trenche of voters were herded into voting to join.
I think my slightly ironic post reflects the similarities with the campaign this time round. A lot of traditional Tories who may really want to leave will have voted for that nice Mr. Cameron (and his pal George) and won't want to 'let the side down' by voting against their own side.
There are also traditional Labour voters who want out, but they will be reluctant to be seen to be siding with Tory Boris, and the perceived ultra right wing Nigel Farage (and maybe he is - I don't really know!) - and they also won't want to see their political leaders who have nearly all come out for remain humiliated by their views being rejected by the electorate.
So, although I don't believe the desire for Brexit is confined to the natural supporters of any one party, but many people will vote, not for the way they feel about the EU, but because they don't want to feel they are somehow voting against their 'own' side - be that Tory or Labour, or in some way favouring for the 'other' side.
Liberals will of course vote to remain......................bless!

beorhthelm · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
As I have said numerous times, if the Greeks were not wanting the deal they wouldn't have voted to remain in the EU about 3 times in 12 months including post deal when the government stood down. Or is your arrogance such that you know better than the Greek nation?

they never voted to remain or leave. they did vote for politcal representives who said they would stand up to European Union demands put upon them, and three elections and more damaged economy later, they are doing everything the Europen Union demands of them. this is the reality of how the European Union want to run things.

JC Footy Genius · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
It's pretty damn obvious that the Remain figure is a forecast. It's pretty damn obvious that Brexit figures are forecasts as well. I've listened and decided what I think is most likely to happen. And even you admit there will be "a small negative effect" for a few years. There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict. You might be able to, they can't, and I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives.

Oh come along now HT don't hide behind the poor to justify your'e decision. (Remember you voted for Corbyn!) These threads have been going on for ages and you have already given other supposed reasons. Just be honest, your personal circumstances might be effected, perhaps slower border crossing times, possibly financial? Or to put it a more colourful way a selfish attitude overriding all other concerns.

By the way the Greeks chose their own fate in the same way a man facing a firing squad is offered and takes 20 years slave labour as an alternative.

Enjoy your plonk.

Bladders · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
It's pretty damn obvious that the Remain figure is a forecast. It's pretty damn obvious that Brexit figures are forecasts as well. I've listened and decided what I think is most likely to happen. And even you admit there will be "a small negative effect" for a few years. There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict. You might be able to, they can't, and I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives.

It's not just about people now but our future generations. It's not about just the next 5 years but where we'll be in the future if we carry on in this EU car crash.

Stop worrying about yourself all the time .

Such a selfish attitude.

pastafarian · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict. You might be able to, they can't, and I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives.

Perhaps the predictions are wrong.
maybe the hundreds of thousands you mention dont want to be saved by you and The EU.
perhaps they might think things would be better out of the EU,more job prospects with less immigrants.
perhaps they might well be voting for a Brexit,who knows

A bit arrogant really to assume they need saving by you and The EU in the first place.
Its that sort of prevalent pompous attitude you and the EU do oh so very well though.

Hamilton · May 15, 2016

Hitler is in the argument.

Boris has truly lost it.

Sent from my iPhone using blancmange

pastafarian · May 15, 2016

Sir Reginald Adrian Berkeley Sheffield has received over £600,000 of payments from The Common Agricultural Policy since 2008.
Not surprised he and his closest are keen to remain in the EU.

Lincoln Imp · May 15, 2016

pastafarian said:
Perhaps the predictions are wrong.
maybe the hundreds of thousands you mention dont want to be saved by you and The EU.
perhaps they might think things would be better out of the EU,more job prospects with less immigrants.
perhaps they might well be voting for a Brexit,who knows

A bit arrogant really to assume they need saving by you and The EU in the first place.
Its that sort of prevalent pompous attitude you and the EU do oh so very well though.

I suppose there are people, hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people, who are employed in the factories and offices and supply chains of foreign direct investment companies who are mainly or partly in the UK because of its access to the single market who might well be voting to remain, who knows.
A bit arrogant to assume they all need saving by people who regard anyone who disagrees with them as deluded and dim.

larus · May 15, 2016

Lincoln Imp said:
I suppose there are people, hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people, who are employed in the factories and offices and supply chains of foreign direct investment companies who are mainly or partly in the UK because of its access to the single market who might well be voting to remain, who knows.
A bit arrogant to assume they all need saving by people who regard anyone who disagrees with them as deluded and dim.

But we had all of this crap about losing jobs/inward investment if we didn't join the EURO. It's BS; there's no other word for it.

We're the 5th largest economy in the world. The City will still be dominant in financial services. Europe will still trade with us. Yes, there will be a period of uncertainty and maybe a SHORT-TERM MARGINAL impact to GDP. But, the flexibility of our economy compares to Europ will allow us to bounce back and flourish outside of the EU. Bring it on.

yxee · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict. You might be able to, they can't, and I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives.

People are earning low money because EU freedom of labour movement allows cheap labourers to arbitrage the UK's high relative wages. EU migration hurts British low earners more than any other class.

For a country with a relatively high GDP per capita, immigration control is a prerequisite for a proper living wage.

Leaving the EU would be a form of protectionism of the kind I would expect Labour to embrace.

Lincoln Imp · May 15, 2016

larus said:
But we had all of this crap about losing jobs/inward investment if we didn't join the EURO. It's BS; there's no other word for it.

We're the 5th largest economy in the world. The City will still be dominant in financial services. Europe will still trade with us. Yes, there will be a period of uncertainty and maybe a SHORT-TERM MARGINAL impact to GDP. But, the flexibility of our economy compares to Europ will allow us to bounce back and flourish outside of the EU. Bring it on.

OK, you're the expert.

Soulman · May 15, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
It's pretty damn obvious that the Remain figure is a forecast. It's pretty damn obvious that Brexit figures are forecasts as well. I've listened and decided what I think is most likely to happen. And even you admit there will be "a small negative effect" for a few years. There are hundreds of thousands of households currently on the breadline who simply cannot weather this storm which you predict. You might be able to, they can't, and I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives.

All very noble but as you have admitted in previous EU threads, leaving the EU would affect you and your work.
" I'm not going to stand by and let the selfish attitudes of others destroy their lives".[/QUOTE]
You will be standing by in Germany, looking on.............

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