Autumn statement today ...... hero’s or villains?

Bozza · Nov 25, 2015

edna krabappel said:
Exactly what I'm thinking. He's allocating more money to the NHS. He's changed his mind on the cuts to tax credits. He's not cutting the police budgets.

So what's the bombshell? What have we missed so far that's going to fill the gap?

The Office for Budget Responsibility confirms that it has raised its forecast for tax receipts, allowing George Osborne to ease back on austerity.

In the first combined Spending Review and Autumn Statement since 2007, the Government has taken advantage of an improvement in the outlook for tax receipts – concentrated in the middle years of this Parliament – to further loosen the impending squeeze on public services spending, to increase capital spending and to reverse the main tax credit cuts it announced in July, while still delivering a modestly stronger budget balance in most years on a like-for- like basis. As the boost to receipts begins to ebb, the Government increases departmental spending by less and relies more on tax increases to maintain the bottom line improvement.

Bozza · Nov 25, 2015

The OBR has calculated that today’s measures will raise gross tax take by £28.5bn by 2020.

It says: These include the new apprenticeship levy (£11.6 billion), higher council tax (£6.2 billion), and the introduction of higher rates of stamp duty land tax for second homes and buy-to-let purchases (£3.8illion).

Chicken Run · Nov 25, 2015

edna krabappel said:
Exactly what I'm thinking. He's allocating more money to the NHS. He's changed his mind on the cuts to tax credits. He's not cutting the police budgets.

So what's the bombshell? What have we missed so far that's going to fill the gap?

Absolutely stunned that he's not slashing police budgets, for what it's worth, as is just about everybody else I've spoken to at work. We were led to believe a reduction in officer numbers from 120,000 to around 80,000 over the next few years was on the cards (yes, I know they like to leak that sort of stuff so that whatever is eventually announced looks like a massive bonus). The cynic in me suspects that even Osborne was concerned about the public reaction if he was seen to be cutting budgets to the police and security services whilst the terrorist threat is so high.

I hear what your saying but he can't win can he!

Tim Over Whelmed · Nov 25, 2015

lost in london said:
Tax credit cuts abandoned, pretty embarrassing reversal for Georgey porgy

Why is it "pretty emabarrassing reversal for", why isn't it "at last, someone has listended to all the arguments and based a decision on that"? Just wondered, that is all.

edna krabappel · Nov 25, 2015

Chicken Run said:
I hear what your saying but he can't win can he!

Of course not

The nature of politics is that every decision will be considered and ultimately pooh-poohed by an opposition, as has happened here. I see Andy Burnham (for example) seems to be taking credit for the apparent u-turn on police spending.

Perhaps Bozza's explanation re tax revenues goes some way towards filling the gap. I've not read the entire article.

Tim Over Whelmed · Nov 25, 2015

Lord Bracknell said:
Does his U-Turn involve abandoning the new National "Living Wage" that was due to be introduced in April 2016?

That the government doesn't pay, hits all employers and especially small businesses. ........ Before you ask the answer is "No", I get about 20-25% less than them.

Ernest · Nov 25, 2015

It will fall apart by the weekend once the details emerge, it is a Tory Budget/Statement, that's what happens

Bozza · Nov 25, 2015

Andrew Sparrow (political correspondent at The Guardian):

Osborne does probably deserve some credit for abandoning his tax credits completely, instead for opting for a fudge. If you are going to do a U-turn, you may well do one properly, and Osborne pulled this off with some aplomb. His announcement on police funding was a real surprise too (although we need to see the small print). More interesting were the apprenticeship levy - a £3bn tax on big business, not unlike Gordon Brown’s 1997 windfall tax, and more ambitious than anything Labour proposed at the election - and the punitive 3% stamp duty for buy to let landlords, another move that sounds Jeremy Corbyn than Ed Balls.

Lord Bracknell · Nov 25, 2015

Credit should be given to those thousands of Labour Party supporters who voted for Corbyn and his anti-austerity ticket. This demonstrated to Osborne and Cameron just how unacceptable the planned austerity package would be. So they backed down.

Go Jezza!

Pavilionaire · Nov 25, 2015

A massive change that won't get any coverage - Capital Gains Tax on 2nd properties to be paid within 30 days of sale - by 2019.

This means solicitors will be computing and deducting tax from the net sale proceeds. This will necessitate a big simplification from the present CGT regime where the tax you pay depends upon what other gains / losses you have, what your marginal rate of tax is, etc - this is stuff above and beyond most solicitors.

He'll almost certainly have to introduce a flat rate of CGT for these disposals in order to make it doable by solicitors on completion. Currently, individuals pay 18% or 28% so if there's a flat rate of less than 28% the fat cats get fatter and Middle England pays more.

Also, great news for George's big legal chums as they get a chunk of tax work previously undertaken by accountants.

nicko31 · Nov 25, 2015

The raid on buy to let continues, first high rate mortgage relief, now stamp duty plus an extra 3%. The the JCL's is fast become less desireable investment

What next maybe tax relief on mortgages to go completely? I would George I'd go for this can get some BTL's disposals and rake in the CGT..

lost in london · Nov 25, 2015

Tim Over Whelmed said:
Why is it "pretty emabarrassing reversal for", why isn't it "at last, someone has listended to all the arguments and based a decision on that"? Just wondered, that is all.

Because he was so strongly in favour of it, argued that it was financial pressures that made it necessary and slammed the Lords for daring to object to it. It turns out that financially it is in fact affordable and that more likely than not it was a political decision (potentially shaped by his own leadership ambitions).

Someone holding their hands up and changing their mind completely is worth applauding, doesn't stop it from being a shambles and embarrassing.

Gwylan · Nov 25, 2015

Bozza said:
Andrew Sparrow (political correspondent at The Guardian):

Osborne does probably deserve some credit for abandoning his tax credits completely, instead for opting for a fudge. If you are going to do a U-turn, you may well do one properly, and Osborne pulled this off with some aplomb. His announcement on police funding was a real surprise too (although we need to see the small print). More interesting were the apprenticeship levy - a £3bn tax on big business, not unlike Gordon Brown’s 1997 windfall tax, and more ambitious than anything Labour proposed at the election - and the punitive 3% stamp duty for buy to let landlords, another move that sounds Jeremy Corbyn than Ed Balls.

Fair play to Osborne. This is far more equitable than people were expecting. I wish the stamp duty for BTLs was a bit higher but, in the circumstances, he's done pretty well

Ernest · Nov 25, 2015

Interesting seeing the buy to letters hammered, bet they will be up in arms

Tim Over Whelmed · Nov 25, 2015

lost in london said:
Because he was so strongly in favour of it, argued that it was financial pressures that made it necessary and slammed the Lords for daring to object to it. It turns out that financially it is in fact affordable and that more likely than not it was a political decision (potentially shaped by his own leadership ambitions).

Someone holding their hands up and changing their mind completely is worth applauding, doesn't stop it from being a shambles and embarrassing.

I guess it's dammed if you do and dammed if you don't?

Bozza · Nov 25, 2015

Ernest said:
It will fall apart by the weekend once the details emerge, it is a Tory Budget/Statement, that's what happens

Question: would you rather it all falls apart because it's the boo-hiss-nasty-Tories, or do you genuinely hope it sets the path for economic growth and recovery, for the good of the nation?

alfredmizen · Nov 25, 2015

Ernest said:
Interesting seeing the buy to letters hammered, bet they will be up in arms

A lot of people use buy to let as a pension , since your previous idol, Gordon c*nt brown effectively wrecked a pensions industry that was the best in the western world.

lost in london · Nov 25, 2015

edna krabappel said:
Exactly what I'm thinking. He's allocating more money to the NHS. He's changed his mind on the cuts to tax credits. He's not cutting the police budgets.

So what's the bombshell? What have we missed so far that's going to fill the gap?

Absolutely stunned that he's not slashing police budgets, for what it's worth, as is just about everybody else I've spoken to at work. We were led to believe a reduction in officer numbers from 120,000 to around 80,000 over the next few years was on the cards (yes, I know they like to leak that sort of stuff so that whatever is eventually announced looks like a massive bonus). The cynic in me suspects that even Osborne was concerned about the public reaction if he was seen to be cutting budgets to the police and security services whilst the terrorist threat is so high.

Turns out police budgets are only protected in cash terms, not in real terms therefore police in line for real terms cuts.

edna krabappel · Nov 25, 2015

nicko31 said:
The raid on buy to let continues, first high rate mortgage relief, now stamp duty plus an extra 3%. The the JCL's is fast become less desireable investment

What next maybe tax relief on mortgages to go completely? I would George I'd go for this can get some BTL's disposals and rake in the CGT..

The tax relief on mortgage interest was binned in the last budget, wasn't it? That's due to kick in from 2017 I think.

The question is, whether this will dissuade investors snapping from up empty properties in the hope of making a profit on them, or whether it will simply cause existing landlords to hike the rent up on their properties from 2017, thus penalising the tenants?

The rental market has been red hot since the last recession because so many people were suddenly priced out of the mortgage market. I'm not sure who wins out of that situation, whatever the perception of landlords (who are not all evil *******s!).

CHAPPERS · Nov 25, 2015

**** the environment eh George you short sighted little prick.

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