[Politics] Brexit

[Hampster Gull]

Even the Poles, who have historically been strong allies are now taking the piss

“Mr Morawiecki told their joint press conference: "As Madame Brexit has said, Brexit is Brexit."”

 

[WATFORD zero]

Think you’re getting confused. The major issue the remainers have with the leave campaign appears to the £350m per week on the NHS. Like most Brexit voters, I knew this was symbolism of the amount we were paying to the EU budget.

For me, the main issue was and still is about sovereignty and accountability. The EU elite are not accountable IMO.

But, getting back to the issue regarding experts, please tell me when they will be right. After all, we were warned of:
1. House price crash.
2. Interest rate rises.
3. 30bln emergency budget.
4. Immediate recession as soon as we VOTED leave (not implement leave).
5. And, of course, WWIII, no influence within NATO, etc. etc.

So, please oh wise one, advise me which of these key predictions, espoused by many of these so-called experts you seem to want to suck up to, has actually come true. Or even close to being true.

I'm not confused. I don't believe that you will find a post from me predicting any of those things, or from the experts I 'suck up to' or pay for their expertise. You will find me taking an ongoing interest in the UK economy though.

I doubt that it has even occurred to you that I may be one of these EU elite or 'experts' that you despise so much ?

I am most impressed that you saw through the message on the bus and understood the symbolism behind it though. Must have come as a bit of a surprise to Dominic Cummings

 

[GT49er]

So are you trying to now say that Brexit is responsible for the imbalance in the economy?

Are you trying to say that if we’d voted to remain we’d not be world leading exporters like Germany, because I really can’t see what the f*ck you’re whinging about.

Actually, yes I can.

Remainer : “The sky is falling in and the economy will go into a recession as soon as we vote to leave”
Brexiteer: “All scare-mongering pal, there will be uncertainty and of course some rebalancing will be needed which could be a good thing. Anyway, nothings happened apart from an overdue adjustment in the level of the pound, and that’s stabilised”.
Remainer : “Well, we didn’t mean it would happen straight away, what we meant is that it would happen eventually. And all the experts keep making predictions of a huge slow-down”.
Brexiteer : “OK, but it’s been 18 months now and growth has slackedned off from what it was, but, being honest, this happens in economies all the time. And there really hasn’t been a serious slowdown, inflation has peaked and interest rates have been adjusted back to where they were before and the economy is doing OK”.
Reaminer : “But it’’s not the wrong type of growth”.
Brexiteer : “And how is that the fault of Brexit?”
Remainer : “It just is, everything must be the fault of Brexit.”

Excellent. Concise, and absolutely accurate. Remoaners will choke on their nouvelle cuisine (not that I'm labelling all remainers as food snobs, of course, any more than remainers label leavers as old, thick, fascist racists) as they try and try to find fault with that scenario.

If we hadn't voted leave, Bambi's mother would still be alive, ffs!

 

[larus]

Yes I can. It’s just you had said all experts before which I thought was extreme even on this thread. But the definition above, that it is only someone who is always right, is a bit of a nonsense. There will be no one in the world who is described as an expert who is always right. Trumpism lives on though

Wow, you have chosen to pick up on one word from my posts where I said “Of course, all of these experts have been spot-on haven’t they” and am implying that I don’t accept that some people are experts in their chosen field. Of course I do, but when the experts continually seem to be biased and their predictions constantly fail, then I think it’s not unreasonable to question them.

These Remain ‘Experts’ lost a lot of credibility with obvious scare-mongering during the campaign. And, since the vote the economy has performed OK. It exceeded expectations for about 12 months and has since softened a little, but this is not unusual win economies. It happens all of the time, but the Remainers can’t seem to accept that and want to blame every minor twists and turn on Brexit.

 

[GT49er]

I doubt that it has even occurred to you that I may be one of these EU elite or 'experts' that you despise so much ?

Well, no it hadn't, to be honest. But no matter how hard you try, I don't think you'll convince anyone.

 

[larus]

I'm not confused. I don't believe that you will find a post from me predicting any of those things, or from the experts I 'suck up to' or pay for their expertise. You will find me taking an ongoing interest in the UK economy though.

I doubt that it has even occurred to you that I may be one of these EU elite or 'experts' that you despise so much ?

I am most impressed that you saw through the message on the bus and understood the symbolism behind it though. Must have come as a bit of a surprise to Dominic Cummings

Oh I forgot about the £4300 pa worse off for every family (something like that anyway).

I also take an interest in the UK economy, and I see the EU as a very inward looking, protectionist area. The world is changing and at some point the EU/EURO is going to have major structural issues. The EURO cannot survive long-term and once this goes, then the EU will suffer in-fighting. The issues in Portugal, Italy, Greece have not been sorted and there will be no fiscal transfers, so I am glad that we are getting out now and have time to expand our economy and reduce the inter-dependency on the EU. The EU is old world now, and if do take a genuine interest in economics, you must see that. The welfare state models are unsustainable hence the need for low paid, migrant workers to come in. Anyway, that’s a different subject altogether.

 

[larus]

Well, no it hadn't, to be honest. But no matter how hard you try, I don't think you'll convince anyone.

Ouch .

 

[Mental Lental]

 

[The Clamp]

Oh I forgot about the £4300 pa worse off for every family (something like that anyway).

I also take an interest in the UK economy, and I see the EU as a very inward looking, protectionist area. The world is changing and at some point the EU/EURO is going to have major structural issues. The EURO cannot survive long-term and once this goes, then the EU will suffer in-fighting. The issues in Portugal, Italy, Greece have not been sorted and there will be no fiscal transfers, so I am glad that we are getting out now and have time to expand our economy and reduce the inter-dependency on the EU. The EU is old world now, and if do take a genuine interest in economics, you must see that. The welfare state models are unsustainable hence the need for low paid, migrant workers to come in. Anyway, that’s a different subject altogether.

Ha brilliant.
True colours.

 

[Buzzer]

I doubt that it has even occurred to you that I may be one of these EU elite or 'experts' that you despise so much ?

That comment by Gove about distrusting experts was, if I recall correctly, made specifically about those making economic predictions when they have either a vested interest or their previous track record has been patchy or both. And Gove has been proven right to a large degree because the Bank of England, the UK Treasury, the IMF, ECB, CBI, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the then UK chancellor and numerous others have all admitted that their predictions about the immediate post-Brexit economy were all wrong.

I've made this point before but this is seriously scary. Removing Brexit from the discussion, we've got the biggest names in global finance and economics and they can't even get anywhere near being able to predict correctly what will happen just one or two months into the future. Meanwhile I saw these two little tit-bits this morning.

and this report on the Acquisitions and Mergers market, a key indicator to a country's relative attractiveness to foreign investors.

In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote there were some dire predictions by consultants and experts that forecast Brexit would lead to a tail off in mergers and acquisitions activity and investment. It had seemed these were likely to come true when there was a post EU referendum lull in dealmaking and Britain fell out of the top five most favourable destinations for companies to invest last year in rankings by accountancy firm EY.

However, the UK was back up to third place in the attractiveness rankings by April this year and figures from Mergermarket show that 645 deals worth £73.9bn took place in the UK during the first half of 2017 – a 118.6% increase in value on H1 2016. Britain also remains the M&A leader in Europe, with its closest rival, Germany, recording just 399 deals in the first half of this year.

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/p...xit-is-not-hurting-the-uks-ma-market-20171205

I'm sure there will be tough times ahead but given that no-one except Alistair Darling predicted the 2008 crash and so many of the biggest names got immediate post-Brexit Britain wrong then distrusting these experts would be the right thing to do. Would you agree?

 

[Blue3]

That comment by Gove about distrusting experts was, if I recall correctly, made specifically about those making economic predictions when they have either a vested interest or their previous track record has been patchy or both. And Gove has been proven right to a large degree because the Bank of England, the UK Treasury, the IMF, ECB, CBI, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the then UK chancellor and numerous others have all admitted that their predictions about the immediate post-Brexit economy were all wrong.

I've made this point before but this is seriously scary. Removing Brexit from the discussion, we've got the biggest names in global finance and economics and they can't even get anywhere near being able to predict correctly what will happen just one or two months into the future. Meanwhile I saw these two little tit-bits this morning.

and this report on the Acquisitions and Mergers market, a key indicator to a country's relative attractiveness to foreign investors.

In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote there were some dire predictions by consultants and experts that forecast Brexit would lead to a tail off in mergers and acquisitions activity and investment. It had seemed these were likely to come true when there was a post EU referendum lull in dealmaking and Britain fell out of the top five most favourable destinations for companies to invest last year in rankings by accountancy firm EY.

However, the UK was back up to third place in the attractiveness rankings by April this year and figures from Mergermarket show that 645 deals worth £73.9bn took place in the UK during the first half of 2017 – a 118.6% increase in value on H1 2016. Britain also remains the M&A leader in Europe, with its closest rival, Germany, recording just 399 deals in the first half of this year.

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/p...xit-is-not-hurting-the-uks-ma-market-20171205

I'm sure there will be tough times ahead but given that no-one except Alistair Darling predicted the 2008 crash and so many of the biggest names got immediate post-Brexit Britain wrong then distrusting these experts would be the right thing to do. Would you agree?

All that just goes to show is that the bubble that is the London centric financial economy is currently doing OK unlike any other industry sadly this can change in an instant as it did in 1928 and 2008 in an industry that can rapidly respond up sticks and relocate why would financial institutions make any changes until they have to, Brexit has yet to happen but all the signs are there and if we were to find that over the next few years that Frankfurt or Paris becomes the financial centre of Europe what will the UK have to fall back on?

 

[Buzzer]

All that just goes to show is that the bubble that is the London centric financial economy is currently doing OK unlike any other industry sadly this can change in an instant as it did in 1928 and 2008 in an industry that can rapidly respond up sticks and relocate why would financial institutions make any changes until they have to, Brexit has yet to happen but all the signs are there and if we were to find that over the next few years that Frankfurt or Paris becomes the financial centre of Europe what will the UK have to fall back on?

The London-centric finance economy accounts for 10% of UK GDP and is the biggest tax paying sector. That report obviously has caveats but indicates that you're very wrong to say that the signs indicate Frankfurt or Paris will replace London as the financial centre. If you read the news report it says quite explicitly that the A&M market is one of the biggest indicators and currently points towards continued overwhelming London dominance.

 

[WATFORD zero]

That comment by Gove about distrusting experts was, if I recall correctly, made specifically about those making economic predictions when they have either a vested interest or their previous track record has been patchy or both. And Gove has been proven right to a large degree because the Bank of England, the UK Treasury, the IMF, ECB, CBI, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the then UK chancellor and numerous others have all admitted that their predictions about the immediate post-Brexit economy were all wrong.

I've made this point before but this is seriously scary. Removing Brexit from the discussion, we've got the biggest names in global finance and economics and they can't even get anywhere near being able to predict correctly what will happen just one or two months into the future. Meanwhile I saw these two little tit-bits this morning.

and this report on the Acquisitions and Mergers market, a key indicator to a country's relative attractiveness to foreign investors.

In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote there were some dire predictions by consultants and experts that forecast Brexit would lead to a tail off in mergers and acquisitions activity and investment. It had seemed these were likely to come true when there was a post EU referendum lull in dealmaking and Britain fell out of the top five most favourable destinations for companies to invest last year in rankings by accountancy firm EY.

However, the UK was back up to third place in the attractiveness rankings by April this year and figures from Mergermarket show that 645 deals worth £73.9bn took place in the UK during the first half of 2017 – a 118.6% increase in value on H1 2016. Britain also remains the M&A leader in Europe, with its closest rival, Germany, recording just 399 deals in the first half of this year.

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/p...xit-is-not-hurting-the-uks-ma-market-20171205

I'm sure there will be tough times ahead but given that no-one except Alistair Darling predicted the 2008 crash and so many of the biggest names got immediate post-Brexit Britain wrong then distrusting these experts would be the right thing to do. Would you agree?

I was referring to Larus mistrust of experts more than Michael Gove.

I agree with what you are saying about the history of some 'experts' and previous predictions have to have some bearing on their credibility. However, using this as a tool to bash all experts is, IMHO, a little short-sighted and I'm not sure who we should rely on in their place

However, some of the predictions made in the run up to the vote were based on a leaving date of 24 June 2018 (as stated by Cameron). The EU have now kindly agreed to us staying in the single market until Dec 2020, so we are currently further away from leaving the single market now than we were the day before the vote.

I quite like the term 'the economy is softening' as it's about as meaningful as 'Red, White and Blue Brexit' or 'Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'.

As has been mentioned earlier, I now believe that a second referendum is inevitable as no Government is going to want to take responsibility for the final deal, so when (or if ) that happens, I believe we will have a far better idea of where the economy is heading and which 'experts' called it right.

 

[portslade seagull]

All that just goes to show is that the bubble that is the London centric financial economy is currently doing OK unlike any other industry sadly this can change in an instant as it did in 1928 and 2008 in an industry that can rapidly respond up sticks and relocate why would financial institutions make any changes until they have to, Brexit has yet to happen but all the signs are there and if we were to find that over the next few years that Frankfurt or Paris becomes the financial centre of Europe what will the UK have to fall back on?

Ok how many years before it does 20? 30 ?. It's a long time to blame it on Brexit

 

[Buzzer]

I was referring to Larus mistrust of experts more than Michael Gove.

I realised that but the 'distrust experts' line is one of the favourite insults chucked at Leave supporters and we all know the point being made - that Brexit voters are akin to something like climate change deniers but the reality is that on any future economic predictions, we should all be highly sceptical.

Even now, you seem to have given all those organisations that got it completely wrong a free pass. You put your faith in them still, like a believer in one of those doomsday religions predicting the end of the world next week, then some date next year and if that doesn't work then maybe in a couple of years. You say that you have to put your faith in them or else there's no-one to trust but I'd ask why you feel you owe them this loyalty?

Anyway, there are experts out there whose predictions are at least in the right ballpark. Sir Patrick Minford, for one. and he was also the economist in the early 80s who famously stood alone against 364 of the world's leading economists including some Nobel laureates when they signed a letter stating that Minford's views had no place in economic theory and their implementation would irrevocably damage the UK economy.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I realised that but the 'distrust experts' line is one of the favourite insults chucked at Leave supporters and we all know the point being made - that Brexit voters are akin to something like climate change deniers but the reality is that on any future economic predictions, we should all be highly sceptical.

Even now, you seem to have given all those organisations that got it completely wrong a free pass. You put your faith in them still, like a believer in one of those doomsday religions predicting the end of the world next week, then some date next year and if that doesn't work then maybe in a couple of years. You say that you have to put your faith in them or else there's no-one to trust but I'd ask why you feel you owe them this loyalty?

Anyway, there are experts out there whose predictions are at least in the right ballpark. Sir Patrick Minford, for one. and he was also the economist in the early 80s who famously stood alone against 364 of the world's leading economists including some Nobel laureates when they signed a letter stating that Minford's views had no place in economic theory and their implementation would irrevocably damage the UK economy.

We should be challenging of experts, as we should be challenging of all that offer advice. Thats heathy.

That said we are something like 15% poorer post the vote due to our currency devaluation. Our wealth in comparison to the world is lower.

Inflation is running at 4%, the highest for some time.

Real wages are declining, other countries are growing.

We have the lowest economic growth post the vote of the major world economies.

these may be transient, they may not be. Let’s see. A good deal with the EU, or largest market for our economy, will help massively.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I realised that but the 'distrust experts' line is one of the favourite insults chucked at Leave supporters and we all know the point being made - that Brexit voters are akin to something like climate change deniers but the reality is that on any future economic predictions, we should all be highly sceptical.

Even now, you seem to have given all those organisations that got it completely wrong a free pass. You put your faith in them still, like a believer in one of those doomsday religions predicting the end of the world next week, then some date next year and if that doesn't work then maybe in a couple of years. You say that you have to put your faith in them or else there's no-one to trust but I'd ask why you feel you owe them this loyalty?

Anyway, there are experts out there whose predictions are at least in the right ballpark. Sir Patrick Minford, for one. and he was also the economist in the early 80s who famously stood alone against 364 of the world's leading economists including some Nobel laureates when they signed a letter stating that Minford's views had no place in economic theory and their implementation would irrevocably damage the UK economy.

So you believe in the experts that predict what you think is going to happen ? (I suspect that everyone does !)

There's no free pass and there's certainly experts out there at the two extremes who I've never believed.(You know, the ones that always get quoted by people from the other side of the argument). I don't believe that I owe them any loyalty but if someone predicts what will happen in a 2 year timeframe and then that timeframe gets changed to 5 years, do you think they should be held to account even thought the goalposts have changed ?

And I don't think anyone can deny that economic growth is falling, sterling is falling and inflation is rising.

You know we are not going to agree, but as i said before, I think another 15 months down the line the politicians will put it to another vote (to protect themselves) and it will be less of a guess where the economy is, and is heading, when we know what deals we have got.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

So we should listen to 'experts' without a vested interest/political agenda like Nige, Boris, Gove and Leadsom

And there was me thinking that maybe I should go with the huge majority of MPs, Economists, Senior Civil Servants etc

you want to listen to yourself sometimes ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
regards
DR

 

[Baldseagull]

Someone who gives advice and it proves to be right.

The problem with Brexit is that too many ‘experts’ have a vested interest/political agenda. The elite like globalisation as it makes it easier to enforce lower wages. For example : Carney - ex Goldman Sachs. Legarde - she’s a lawyer. Too many business leaders like the free movement to keep wages low.

When Peter dies wolf too many times, people stop believing. Can’t you understand that?

In the boy who cried wolf, in the end there is a wolf, and people believing it was just a false alarm, lost all their sheep. An analogy that looks like it could be pretty good for this situation

 

[beorhthelm]

That said we are something like 15% poorer post the vote due to our currency devaluation. Our wealth in comparison to the world is lower.

Inflation is running at 4%, the highest for some time.

why rely on exaggeration and frankly outright lies to make the point? it only discredits the arguement, just all the predictions of economic doom didnt happen, and now its "well we havent left so doesnt count until we do". it wont though.