General Election predictions

[Herr Tubthumper]

IMO, the EU is the party trying to play hard-ball over this. You continue to believe what you want (as per normal), but all I have seen so far from the EU team is disingenuous, such as Juncker leaking/misleading after a PRIVATE meeting at Downing Street. The UK government has said it is willing to sort this out fast, but that is different to being dictated to.

As I said, Theresa May can, unilaterally, solve the future situation of EU citizens in the UK. This wouldn't involve any input from the EU. But she hasn't. And by declaring a totally unneeded election, and further delaying talks, it's pretty clear the government doesn't have speed at the forefront of its Brexit thinking. In fact we are now one year after the EU referendum and **** all has been discussed to date. Where on earth do you get this idea the UK wants to act fast?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Why? He is the better speaker. Most would agree that his campaign has been better than hers as indicated by the Tory lead being reduced significantly. People do not turn out to listen to her speeches, unlike Corbyn she has not given the UK electorate any sort of articulated vision of the future, or even felt the need to do so.

Crucially, she and Davis have failed to indicate that they have any clue as to how the EU works, or have any idea what we might owe as an exit charge, or that they have done ANY homework on the subject. There's no indication that Liam Fox's state visits to drum up trade have yielded any encouraging signs either.

May's 6 years as Home Secretary can be summed up in two words - and I use these words pointedly - "car crash". She's overcut police numbers, messed up immigration, a whole series of U-turns as PM. Anyone believing in her to deliver a good deal is doing so either through blind faith, because they hate Corbyn or a combination of both.

Totally this.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

IMO, the EU is the party trying to play hard-ball over this. You continue to believe what you want (as per normal), but all I have seen so far from the EU team is disingenuous, such as Juncker leaking/misleading after a PRIVATE meeting at Downing Street. The UK government has said it is willing to sort this out fast, but that is different to being dictated to.

Also. In this election May has not demonstrated any ability to listen, reason, understand, think on the spot. None at all. In fact it's the opposite... which is why she has been shielded from the public and tv. I imagine the EU are finding it quite difficult to deal with someone of such limited ability when this Brexit task requires something greater.

 

[The Mole]

Weird innit?

I look at my Twitter feed and Facebook feed and it seems like Labour are going to win with the biggest landslide imaginable. Everyone I know is voting Labour. All the people I don't know, but who am connected to through social media are voting Labour

Here in Hove I walk out of my front door and the place is awash with Peter Kyle / Labour posters - only seen one Tory one so far in the entire constituency

What can possibly go wrong?

Any yet, I know this is just one big ECHO CHAMBER and outside of my little bubble, millions are going to vote for the Tories....

,,,and they will win convincingly...


...but hopefully with a reduced majority

God it's going to be depressing tomorrow

Facebook (and I suspect Twitter) is set up to provide content that reflects your views. This acts as reinforcing people's views. Also if your friends are also Labour supporters, this just magnifies the impression.

Having said that, I share your pessimism. I know a few moderate Conservatives who have voted conservative albeit reluctantly and I suspect this is going to be repeated widely.

 

[larus]

As I said, Theresa May can, unilaterally, solve the future situation of EU citizens in the UK. This wouldn't involve any input from the EU. But she hasn't. And by declaring a totally unneeded election, and further delaying talks, it's pretty clear the government doesn't have speed at the forefront of its Brexit thinking. In fact we are now one year after the EU referendum and **** all has been discussed to date. Where on earth do you get this idea the UK wants to act fast?

I don't know of you're being deliberately obtuse or missing the point. There is a situation of EU nationals in the UK and UK nationals in the UK. So, bearing in mind the rhetoric coming from the EU in terms of 'punishment' (which even you must have heard), this issue needs to be sorted out as one. It's not the UK government wanting to use the EU nationals as bargaining chips, it's to ensure that the c*nts in the EU don't use our nationals in EU countries that way. As I said, you need to view this from the UK and hearing the crap being espoused by the likes of Holland about punishing us, the inclusion of Gibraltar as though it's status is up for discussion, a 100bln Euro exit bill and the like.

So, you can carry on believing that this is all the UK's fault if you want, but as far as I can see, the EU are the ones acting like stroppy teenagers.

 

[larus]

Also. In this election May has not demonstrated any ability to listen, reason, understand, think on the spot. None at all. In fact it's the opposite... which is why she has been shielded from the public and tv. I imagine the EU are finding it quite difficult to deal with someone of such limited ability when this Brexit task requires something greater.

Hey, whatever you think of TM, at least she isn't regarded as a piss-head a-la Juncker. So, you think we've got problems, look at your own side lol

 

[London Irish]

It's the year of surprises, the IRA supporter may well win this...policies apart, he is also way too shifty looking for me to have any faith in him at all. Fingers crossed I'm wrong.

Ah jeezus not you too. Been close to him since the early 1980s, he doesn't support the IRA. How difficult is to understand he was just encouraging the wing of Sinn Fein who wanted a peace deal and and end to bombing and war. And he was proved right, that deal could have been made at least 10 years earlier and saved a lot of lives

 

[Pavilionaire]

Hey, whatever you think of TM, at least she isn't regarded as a piss-head a-la Juncker.

At last, someone has actually found a positive quality with this wretched woman.

 

[Gwylan]

Hey, whatever you think of TM, at least she isn't regarded as a piss-head a-la Juncker. So, you think we've got problems, look at your own side lol

Yeah, but Thatcher was a piss-head and she was pretty tough in EU negotiations. Perhaps that's what we need - more piss-heads on the case.

 

[Bozza]

Yeah, but Thatcher was a piss-head and she was pretty tough in EU negotiations. Perhaps that's what we need - more piss-heads on the case.

It's the British way and what the rest of the world expect. Why let them down?

 

[Titanic]

Estimated Conservative majority rises in final Ashcroft Model update
Thursday, 8 June, 2017 in Ashcroft Model

By Lord Ashcroft

The final results from the Ashcroft Model shows an increase in the estimated Conservative majority compared to Tuesday’s figures. The new data is based on an updated survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, which found a hardening of the Conservative vote as Tory supporters gave a higher likelihood of turning out to vote than in previous rounds. The upshot is as follows:

Using voters’ self-declared likelihood to turn out, the model estimates 373 Conservative seats, or a Conservative overall majority of 96.
If turnout were to match that of the 2015 election, the model estimates 364 Conservative seats, or a majority of 78.
If everyone who claims to have voted in the EU referendum turns out, the estimated number of Conservative seats falls to 351, or a majority of 52.
Merging these three together and adding each party’s win chances in all the seats they are standing gives a “combined probabilistic estimate” of 363 seats, or a majority of 76.

 

[Titanic]

The again (as I said on the other thread): Conservatives are reporting a higher than usual turnout... could it just be a ruse? or maybe Corbyn's army of youngsters is on move??

 

[Ernest]

Money coming in for Labour and Tories drifting with the bookies as reports of high turn out by young voters

 

[Icy Gull]

Ah jeezus not you too. Been close to him since the early 1980s, he doesn't support the IRA. How difficult is to understand he was just encouraging the wing of Sinn Fein who wanted a peace deal and and end to bombing and war. And he was proved right, that deal could have been made at least 10 years earlier and saved a lot of lives

Close as in he's a mate?

 

[Guinness Boy]

Hove almost certainly too close to call.

Voted at 8.45 this morning. By lunchtime Labour had been round to check we'd voted.

Now I live in a road that probably has a Peter Kyle poster in every other window and not a single Tory one. We have not seen the Tories all campaign. One of them has just been round now to check if we've voted though. He called me the wrong name and was accompanied back down the road by a geezer in a nice suit talking urgently in to a mobile.

 

[Bozza]

Money coming in for Labour and Tories drifting with the bookies as reports of high turn out by young voters

You having some hope and optimism is a wonderful thing to see. Takes me back to the General Election of 2015. Those were the days, my friend.

 

[clarkey]

Expect the Cons will get 400 +

Media victory

Now 7/1 on Skybet if you fancy it.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Money coming in for Labour and Tories drifting with the bookies as reports of high turn out by young voters

hark at the pied piper
regards
DR

 

[Weststander]

You having some hope and optimism is a wonderful thing to see. Takes me back to the General Election of 2015. Those were the days, my friend.

And 1992 Kinnock's Nurembourg style rally in Sheffield to a huge crowd of the converted, indoors but with wind machines blowing flags as a back drop. Neil and the party were so convinced, that he adopted a Texan accent in whooping and yelling "Allllll Riiiiiight".

Two days later, Labour desolation as determined by the quiet UK public.

 

[Weststander]

Hove almost certainly too close to call.

Voted at 8.45 this morning. By lunchtime Labour had been round to check we'd voted.

Now I live in a road that probably has a Peter Kyle poster in every other window and not a single Tory one. We have not seen the Tories all campaign. One of them has just been round now to check if we've voted though. He called me the wrong name and was accompanied back down the road by a geezer in a nice suit talking urgently in to a mobile.

Tories rarely display posters, they simply vote.

You speak of this a new phenomena.

As it happens, I've said Kyle win