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General Election 2015







seagullsovergrimsby

#cpfctinpotclub
Aug 21, 2005
43,690
Crap Town
Unlikely to happen. Only one MP. But if it did and one vote was necessary to keep the Tories in power then I think it would make no difference. A referendum will keep him happy

You have no idea about the level of support for UKIP in their top 10 target seats :facepalm: If their support holds up in these constituencies until election day it will be the Conservatives who'll be losing 8 or 9 seats to UKIP.
 




Hampster Gull

New member
Dec 22, 2010
13,462
You have no idea about the level of support for UKIP in their top 10 target seats :facepalm: If their support holds up in these constituencies until election day it will be the Conservatives who'll be losing 8 or 9 seats to UKIP.

Ok, assuming they are are credible as you indicate,and I don't doubt your knowledge, I still think they will be ineffectual partners and will be appeased with an eu vote
 


Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
19,731
Eastbourne
Nigel Farage is only echoing what many many people believe in this country. Too many headline stories of abuse of our benefits and national health system coupled with unprecedented levels of immigration. Until UKIP came along, the two major protagonists wouldn't have been seen dead near to a politician who expressed himself in that way for fear of being stigmatised like Enoch Powell. It is fascinating to see that both labour and Tories have, at least in my perception, shifted a little and now acknowledge that there is an issue, at least for many voters.

Personally, I see UKIP as the best chance for a referendum on the European superstate, something I've waited a long, long time for.
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,328
You have no idea about the level of support for UKIP in their top 10 target seats :facepalm: If their support holds up in these constituencies until election day it will be the Conservatives who'll be losing 8 or 9 seats to UKIP.

not sure you understand UKIP support much yourself, half their top 10 targets are Labour seats or seats they need would need to gain. UKIP isnt just taking votes from Conservatives if you hadnt noticed.
 


seagullsovergrimsby

#cpfctinpotclub
Aug 21, 2005
43,690
Crap Town
not sure you understand UKIP support much yourself, half their top 10 targets are Labour seats or seats they need would need to gain. UKIP isnt just taking votes from Conservatives if you hadnt noticed.

The seats which the Conservatives are under threat from UKIP include South Thanet (Farage is standing there) , North Thanet , Sittingbourn & Sheppey , Aylesbury , Great Yarmouth , Thurrock , Boston & Skegness , Forest of Dean and East Worthing & Shoreham , the only Labour seat is Great Grimsby. They also have a chance of retaining the two seats they snatched from the Conservatives last year , Clacton and Rochester & Strood.
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,328
would that be UKIP target seats, rather than those that polling suggest are most at risk? there's Rotherham, Dudley, Rother valley and few other Labour seats are risky based on local election results. Thurrock is a very tight marginal and Tories would be surprised to keep it, going to UKIP would be a win compared to returning to Labour. same could be said for South Thanet. a couple look speculative, such as Aylesbury and Forest of dean, i dont know why they are targets as on paper they are solid Tory seats likely unaffected by the immigration boggeyman. meanwhile, seats not mentioned are those like Heywood, which recall Labour narrowly held by a few hundred as UKIP came from nowhere.

point is, if UKIP get what the polls are reporting it will be both Lab and Con taking a hit. most likly they get S. Thanet on the Farage effect, the two current will retain and one or two others, in seats like G. Yarmouth or Thurrock that Labour whould expect to win.
 
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seagullsovergrimsby

#cpfctinpotclub
Aug 21, 2005
43,690
Crap Town
would that be UKIP target seats, rather than those that polling suggest are most at risk? there's Rotherham, Dudley, Rother valley and few other Labour seats are risky based on local election results. Thurrock is a very tight marginal and Tories would be surprised to keep it, going to UKIP would be a win compared to returning to Labour. same could be said for South Thanet. a couple look speculative, such as Aylesbury and Forest of dean, i dont know why they are targets as on paper they are solid Tory seats likely unaffected by the immigration boggeyman. meanwhile, seats not mentioned are those like Heywood, which recall Labour narrowly held by a few hundred as UKIP came from nowhere.

point is, if UKIP get what the polls are reporting it will be both Lab and Con taking a hit. most likly they get S. Thanet on the Farage effect, the two current will retain and one or two others, in seats like G. Yarmouth or Thurrock that Labour whould expect to win.

UKIP could do well in Rotherham as a backlash to the child abuse scandal. In Grimsby there is a high level of resentment against the Poles and Baltis who've monopolised jobs in the food processing factories plus locals laying the blame for the demise of the UK fishing industry in the 1970's at the door of the EU. UKIP are currently polling at 34% in Grimsby. Great Yarmouth has also had a large influx of migrants with the Portuguese and Baltis swamping the seaside resort in search of factory and agricultural labour work.
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
59,685
The Fatherland
Interesting that Ed Milliband's personal rating is now in the positive and Nicola Sturgeon is now seen as most popular leader, interesting times ahead [MENTION=409]Herr Tubthumper[/MENTION] ?

Definitely interesting times ahead. The more I read about Sturgeon and her thoughts on the NHS, education and the general well being of the Scots I like her. A Labour cabinet with the SNP checking over policy could be a good thing.
 












Bry Nylon

Test your smoke alarm
Helpful Moderator
Jul 21, 2003
19,891
Playing snooker
SNP will wipe Labour out in Scotland - but will that be enough to give Cameron a working majority? Interesting times.
 


Bry Nylon

Test your smoke alarm
Helpful Moderator
Jul 21, 2003
19,891
Playing snooker
Definitely interesting times ahead. The more I read about Sturgeon and her thoughts on the NHS, education and the general well being of the Scots I like her. A Labour cabinet with the SNP checking over policy could be a good thing.

The paradox being that Labour needs its Scottish MPs to form a majority. However the rise of the SNP will obliterate Labour in Scotland and **** up their chances of froming the next government. I reckon the net result of the rise of the SNP will be Cameron back in No 10.
 




somerset

New member
Jul 14, 2003
6,600
Yatton, North Somerset
You have no idea about the level of support for UKIP in their top 10 target seats :facepalm: If their support holds up in these constituencies until election day it will be the Conservatives who'll be losing 8 or 9 seats to UKIP.
It has been said that a significant % of the UKIP vote is from traditional Labour support, not just Cons and LD.......
 


Mellor 3 Ward 4

Well-known member
Jul 27, 2004
9,825
saaf of the water
A Labour cabinet with the SNP checking over policy could be a good thing.

Really?

So a party whose aim is to break up the UK, and is extremely anti-English, should be looking over the shoulder of the Government and only letting policies it approves get passed?

How does that sit as far as the renewal of Trident goes?
 


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