[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

If this article opens, it's a great read. The bravery of Vladimir Kara-Murza is incredible. Such people you'd hope are the future of Russia after Putins murderous tyranny ends.

My Friend Vladimir Kara-Murza Is the Political Prisoner Putin Fears Most

Bill Browder on his friendship with Vladimir Kara-Murza, why he returned to Russia, and their last dinner together

time.com

 

[raymondo]

Lukashenko wasn't on anyones side but his own.

For decades he tried to play West off against Russia and stay somewhere between the two with feet in both camps. That all changed when he overwhelmingly lost the presendential election, but refused to leave, arrested all opposition and brutally put down protestors (with Moscow help). Lukashenko had then lost the West who condemned his actions and rightly state he is NOT the legitimate president of Belarus anymore.

Then the only gig in town for a much hated domestic usurper is Putins protection.

Putin has for years harboured the dream of Belarus reintergrating fully with Russia in a USSR 2 (same as he does with Ukraine) and there was a decades old framework called "nation state" agreement for that to happen, that previously Lukashenko had fought tooth and nail to resist, citing he would never hand over Belarus sovereignty, until he lost the presidency and now only survives by being propped up by Putin.

Putin has since pushed him really hard for the full integration of Belarus into Russia and Lukashenko has had to dance to that tune as only option to personally survive, they've made agreements more recently to fully align economies and trade (under Moscow rules) as bridging steps to full reintegration.

Since before the war started, Lukashenko has been strong armed into allowing Belarus territory to be used by Russia to launch attacks from and fire missiles, the vast majority of Belarussians don't support this and see Ukrainians as slavic brothers. There's a good few political commentators who don't actually think Lukashenko is comfortable with it, but he's now a hostage to fortune and only survives as a puppet or vassel of Putin and like all despots, will do whatever he has to for his own survival.

Even still, he's not allowed his military to get directly involved as much as Putin had pressed him to, and he has dragged his heels as much as he possibly can get away with when Russia has consistently demanded more from Belarus.

So if this article is true, it shouldn't surprise at all, Putin has zero loyalty to Lukashenko, he wants full control of Belarus and every step he has done to prop up Lukashenko is with that ultimate aim, Lukashenko wouldn't have survived without Moscow and has lost his ability to manoeuvre.

Lukashenko suddenly having a heart attack, like former Moscow Obstinate foreign minister will make perfect sense, if/when you see the new puppet that will be installed, no doubt willing to sign Belarus over fully to Russia and use its military to attack Ukraine.

Theres no love lost between Putin and Lukashenko, its a tyrants marriage of convenience and necessity.

Great detailing, thank you. I'm also sure that's Putin's aim ... instal his own puppet in Belarus. The next question would then be... what would the Belarussian people and military do about that? My first hope would be the Belarussian military stepping in, the second would be their own Maidan revolution.

 

[Algernon]

If this article opens, it's a great read. The bravery of Vladimir Kara-Murza is incredible. Such people you'd hope are the future of Russia after Putins murderous tyranny ends.

My Friend Vladimir Kara-Murza Is the Political Prisoner Putin Fears Most

Bill Browder on his friendship with Vladimir Kara-Murza, why he returned to Russia, and their last dinner together

time.com

That's a great illuminating read. There are some very strong people in this world.

 

[raymondo]

If this article opens, it's a great read. The bravery of Vladimir Kara-Murza is incredible. Such people you'd hope are the future of Russia after Putins murderous tyranny ends.

My Friend Vladimir Kara-Murza Is the Political Prisoner Putin Fears Most

Bill Browder on his friendship with Vladimir Kara-Murza, why he returned to Russia, and their last dinner together

time.com

The article opened for me. An amazing read, thanks. I knew summary info about Kara-Murza but not his whole story. Reading about his bravery, and seeing the photo of his family that he's left behind, put me in tears.
As you say, you'd hope he'd be part of the future of Russia ... and he's possibly at least as important a figure in that as Navalny (no facts from me on that, just a feeling).
But for this reason I believe Putin will push these two guys close to death, or even to it.
God I hate Putin and his regime so much. My bucket list is very short at this moment: I'd like to see Putin and Lavrov dead.

 

[heathgate]

I wonder how their military leaders would think about that? Not too well I'd have guessed.

Belarus has even less capability than what we are seeing from Russia....I am not sure any independent move from their military will get them anywhere, against anyone in the region.

 

[raymondo]

Belarus has even less capability than what we are seeing from Russia....I am not sure any independent move from their military will get them anywhere, against anyone in the region.

Would be nice if they had a go against any attempted Russian takeover though

 

[Triggaaar]

Belarus has even less capability than what we are seeing from Russia....I am not sure any independent move from their military will get them anywhere, against anyone in the region.

I imagine their military has the ability to defend itself against Russia, given that Russia can't deal with their war against Russia and had a total of 1 tank to spare for their victory parade. What exactly could they attack Belarus with?

 

[Vin]

Lost four aircraft today

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map

 

[sparkie]

Won't even merit an RIP thread on NSC!

Maybe he is in hospital Resting In Polonium-210

 

[Eric the meek]

An unelected man assumes control of his nation, a nuclear superpower, for over 20 years, controls the state media, runs the country by fear, surrounds himself with sycophants and people afraid for their lives, invades a peaceful neighbouring sovereign country on a ridiculous pretext, commits untold atrocities, holds sham referendums, annexes a fifth of the country, gets beaten back, threatens the world with nuclear war on a regular basis, and now it is being suggested he poisoned 'friends' he obliged to attend his own victory parade.

If you tried to make a movie out of this, it would get laughed out of court for being hopelessly unrealistic.

 

[Triggaaar]

If Lukashenko had been poisoned by Russia, what do you think he'd do with his dying days? I'd have thought he'd be quite anti-Russia, and perhaps get someone in charge of their military who is ready to forcibly remove all Russian military.

Maybe he's just ill. Or if poisoned, maybe by his own side.

 

[GT49er]

If Lukashenko had been poisoned by Russia, what do you think he'd do with his dying days? I'd have thought he'd be quite anti-Russia, and perhaps get someone in charge of their military who is ready to forcibly remove all Russian military.

Maybe he's just ill. Or if poisoned, maybe by his own side.

Surely Putin will have explained to him that he was poisoned by the wicked west?

 

[Baldseagull]

If Lukashenko had been poisoned by Russia, what do you think he'd do with his dying days? I'd have thought he'd be quite anti-Russia, and perhaps get someone in charge of their military who is ready to forcibly remove all Russian military.

Maybe he's just ill. Or if poisoned, maybe by his own side.

Lukashenko decreed in Febuary that Belarus would create and train a territorial defence force of up to 150,000 men, which would be mobilised if attacked. A Belarusian official also said they had a potential 1.5 million people that could join military organisations if Martial law had to be declared.
Standing armed forces are only around 50,000.

Belarus says it has 1.5 million potential soldiers outside armed forces

Belarus, a small Russian ally bordering Ukraine, has as many as 1.5 million potential military personnel outside its armed forces, a senior official was quoted as saying on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

 

[peterward]

If Lukashenko had been poisoned by Russia, what do you think he'd do with his dying days? I'd have thought he'd be quite anti-Russia, and perhaps get someone in charge of their military who is ready to forcibly remove all Russian military.

Maybe he's just ill. Or if poisoned, maybe by his own side.

 

[Surport Local Team]

If Lukashenko had been poisoned by Russia,he what do you think he'd do with his dying days? I'd have thought he'd be quite anti-Russia, and perhaps get someone in charge of their military who is ready to forcibly remove all Russian military.

Maybe he's just ill. Or if poisoned, maybe by his own side.

Putin runs the country next to him, miss behave in anyway and his children will be raped, tourchered and killed!! I trust u in that position would still appoint someone who hate putin!!!! Have a word with yourself!!!

 

[Triggaaar]

Putin runs the country next to him, miss behave in anyway and his children will be raped, tourchered and killed!! I trust u in that position would still appoint someone who hate putin!!!! Have a word with yourself!!!

Have a word with myself? Ok, here goes: 'That Support Local Team bloke's a bit weird. Yep.'

It was just a thought - could it not be possible for him to get his children to safety somewhere (like the US)? If Putin has had him poisoned, surely he'd be enraged, and want his dying days to be against Putin, rather than 'oh well, I'll let him take over my country and send the soldiers to die in Ukraine'.

 

[Eric the meek]

Lost four aircraft today

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map

Suggestions emerging that the downing of the four aircraft, (yes, all four of them, on a 25 mile wide circle), could have been.........friendly fire.

Wagner mercenary boss suggests Russia may have downed its own military aircraft

The head of Russia’s feared Wagner private army has suggested that four Russian military aircraft that reportedly crashed in a region that borders Ukraine may have been shot down by Russia’s own forces

abcnews.go.com

Russians eh?

 

[Vin]

Suggestions emerging that the downing of the four aircraft, (yes, all four of them, on a 25 mile wide circle), could have been.........friendly fire.

Wagner mercenary boss suggests Russia may have downed its own military aircraft

The head of Russia’s feared Wagner private army has suggested that four Russian military aircraft that reportedly crashed in a region that borders Ukraine may have been shot down by Russia’s own forces

abcnews.go.com

Russians eh?

Looks like it was 5 now. UAF sending in false bombs to confuse RAF air defence

 

[Eric the meek]

Looks like it was 5 now. UAF sending in false bombs to confuse RAF air defence

Getting the orcs to use their own precious ammo to shoot down their own aircraft. That is beyond brilliant.

Someone should write a book on the ingenuity of Ukrainians. I am so, so impressed with them.

 

[Surport Local Team]

Have a word with myself? Ok, here goes: 'That Support Local Team bloke's a bit weird. Yep.'

It was just a thought - could it not be possible for him to get his children to safety somewhere (like the US)? If Putin has had him poisoned, surely he'd be enraged, and want his dying days to be against Putin, rather than 'oh well, I'll let him take over my country and send the soldiers to die in Ukraine'.

U not see what happened in Salisbury! U would risk the safety of your children, u r such a brave keyboard warrior!!!