Winning a game from being behind

[Giraffe]

Three times. Palace, Ipswich, and Blackpool.

So in nearly two seasons of football, we have only been involved in four matches where the losing team has come back to win. Three times it has behind the other team, only once ourselves. Personally I'd say that stat says it just doesn't happen that much and we are therefore not THAT far short of the average.

Much like the myth about us letting in more goals than we score in the last five minutes.

 

[Chris001]

Interestingly, the only team that can do the double over us is Middlesbrough - Avoid defeat on Saturday and we've taken points of everyone.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

So in nearly two seasons of football, we have only been involved in four matches where the losing team has come back to win. Three times it has behind the other team, only once ourselves. Personally I'd say that stat says it just doesn't happen that much and we are therefore not THAT far short of the average.

Much like the myth about us letting in more goals than we score in the last five minutes.

I'll have to dig the stats out, but about a two months ago I looked at the record of teams near us in the league, and all of them had come from behind to win at least once this season.

 

[Acker79]

Maybe in the eventuality that we work our way back into a winning position, I should lump some money on a draw.

As happened v wolves and millwall.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

So in nearly two seasons of football, we have only been involved in four matches where the losing team has come back to win. Three times it has behind the other team, only once ourselves. Personally I'd say that stat says it just doesn't happen that much and we are therefore not THAT far short of the average.

Much like the myth about us letting in more goals than we score in the last five minutes.

I'll have to dig the stats out, but about a two months ago I looked at the record of teams near us in the league, and all of them had come from behind to win at least once this season.

This post is from 12-02-2013 (And shows how much the table has changed in those 2 months!):

These are the records of the teams immediately around us when they've conceded first in a match this season:

Burnley - conceded first in 12 games: W1 D4 L7

Blackburn - conceded first in 12 games: W2 D1 L9

Brighton - conceded first in 13 games: W0 D6 L7

M'boro - conceded first in 16 games: W4 D1 L11

Palace - conceded first in 12 games: W5 D2 L5

Hull - conceded first in 11 games: W3 D0 L8

 

[SeagullSongs]

As happened v wolves and millwall.

Exactly. So if I put money on it, that means it's not going to happen!

 

[Pavilionaire]

I think this stat is 75% down to cautious football and 25% down to a lack of leadership driving the players on.

By cautious I mean that Gus has obviously instilled in the players the "keep the ball mantra", but I feel sometimes the players are too fearful of giving it away rather than taking a risk, so our approach play is too slow. This, and only ever playing one up front.

 

[Giraffe]

This post is from 12-02-2013 (And shows how much the table has changed in those 2 months!):

These are the records of the teams immediately around us when they've conceded first in a match this season:

Burnley - conceded first in 12 games: W1 D4 L7

Blackburn - conceded first in 12 games: W2 D1 L9

Brighton - conceded first in 13 games: W0 D6 L7

M'boro - conceded first in 16 games: W4 D1 L11

Palace - conceded first in 12 games: W5 D2 L5

Hull - conceded first in 11 games: W3 D0 L8

Good stats, would be interested to see what the current seven or eight look like now. But it does prove we are laging behind on this front.

 

[severnside gull]

Maybe we simply dont fall behind all that often

 

[theonesmith]

I think this stat is 75% down to cautious football and 25% down to a lack of leadership driving the players on.

By cautious I mean that Gus has obviously instilled in the players the "keep the ball mantra", but I feel sometimes the players are too fearful of giving it away rather than taking a risk, so our approach play is too slow. This, and only ever playing one up front.

And nothing to do with the opposition?

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Good stats, would be interested to see what the current seven or eight look like now. But it does prove we are laging behind on this front.

I've got a bit of spare time so will have a look now.

[MENTION=12595]Acker79[/MENTION] - do you still agree with the statement: in order to reach the play offs, it is likely we will need to win at least one match in which we concede first by the end of the season? I put it to you at the same time I posted those statistics as I thought we would need to. I'm not as convinced that we will need to now as I was then. I think that's more do with the fact the teams around us haven't picked up as many points as I suspected.

 

[Acker79]

Maybe we simply dont fall behind all that often

38 times in 86 matches. 44% of matches. Seems to fall into the category 'often' for me.

 

[Acker79]

[MENTION=12595]Acker79[/MENTION] - do you still agree with the statement: in order to reach the play offs, it is likely we will need to win at least one match in which we concede first by the end of the season? I put it to you at the same time I posted those statistics as I thought we would need to. I'm not as convinced that we will need to now as I was then. I think that's more do with the fact the teams around us haven't picked up as many points as I suspected.

I agree with that. I did at the time, not so sure now. I have this sense that we will go the whole regular season without losing when scoring first, and without winning when conceding first, but at least one of those will stop being true in the play offs. I just hope it goes in our favour.

 

[Pavilionaire]

And nothing to do with the opposition?

But isn't that the point that the run extends over a large number of games against both strong teams and weaker teams? Teams who play a more attacking brand of football and with decent leaders rarely have this problem. We're a better side than the likes of Sheff Wed and Peterborough, but they don't have this issue.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

I think this stat is 75% down to cautious football and 25% down to a lack of leadership driving the players on.

By cautious I mean that Gus has obviously instilled in the players the "keep the ball mantra", but I feel sometimes the players are too fearful of giving it away rather than taking a risk, so our approach play is too slow. This, and only ever playing one up front.

I agree with this theory. Gus' natural caution seems to hinder rather than help and our players often appear under too much pressure at the back end of matches. The opposition sense us settling for a draw and throw caution to the wind. There seems to be too much of a ' what we have we hold attitude ' rather than a ' this team are rocking, lets finish them off ' attitude.
A more positive attitude in the closing stages of games will win you more games overall. Sure, you will lose the odd one or two where you may have nicked a draw but ultimately you have only lost a point. There is more to gain in going for a win wherever possible.
How many times this season have we watched live or listened on the radio to stoppage time and its like the bloody Alamo. Shots, crosses, corners all flashing across the box. Defenders throwing themselves right, left and centre, manfully trying to stem the onrushing tide. It just seems like panic trying to hold on. You just know, in your heart of hearts, that eventually we will crack.
It even gets to the keepers ( Birmingham + Forest ) and at Wolves, against a very ordinary side, we couldn't hold on against ten. We kept giving away corners, got warned with a very near miss and then got punished, with no man on either post and everyone trying to attack the ball like a bunch of kids.
I also agree that a real leader in midfield a la Brian Horton would help us close out more games.

 

[pork pie]

No, it's because our build up play is so slow and pondrous that we are playing in front of the opposition at ALL times and very rarely ever threaten to get in behind them.

Teams know that if they go 1 up all they need to do is defend their 12 yard box and they'll win. We are unable to break down any team with a defensive mentality and a bit of determination about them.

And it's so agonisingly BORING to watch.

100% this. I just hope things change next year with a new manager.

 

[severnside gull]

38 times in 86 matches. 44% of matches. Seems to fall into the category 'often' for me.

how many of those have we lost?

 

[Acker79]

how many of those have we lost?

My info is on my laptop, but I posted this on Saturday in the 78 thread:

38 league games in which we have been behind and failed to win since doncaster
35 league games in which we have conceded first and failed to win

43 games, league and cup, in which we have been behind and failed to win in normal time or extra time.

18 points out of a possible 117 games have been rescued from losing positions (including the win v doncaster, take that out and it's 15/114)

Since we've not won since Doncaster, those 15 points were from 15 draws, leaving 23 games we have trailed in that we lost.


EDIT:
And for us taking the lead

46 league games in which we have taken the lead, resulting in 32 wins (including doncaster), 11 draws, 3 losses
42 leagues games in which we scored first, resulting in 31 wins, 8 draws, 3 losses

Our opponents have taken 20 points from 138 (14.5% - without the doncaster game that's 20/135 or 14.8%)

EDIT: Too late to further add to last post, so the 18 points out of 117 points we won is 15.4%, and 13.2% for 15/114

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] - here's an updated record:

Hull - conceded first in 14 games: W3 D0 L11

Palace - conceded first in 16 games: W5 D2 L9

Forest - conceded first in 22 games: W5 D7 L10

Brighton - conceded first in 16 games: W0 D7 L9

Leicester - conceded first in 18 games: W2 D2 L14

Bolton - conceded first in 17 games: W4 D5 L8

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

I agree with this theory. Gus' natural caution seems to hinder rather than help and our players often appear under too much pressure at the back end of matches. The opposition sense us settling for a draw and throw caution to the wind. There seems to be too much of a ' what we have we hold attitude ' rather than a ' this team are rocking, lets finish them off ' attitude.
A more positive attitude in the closing stages of games will win you more games overall. Sure, you will lose the odd one or two where you may have nicked a draw but ultimately you have only lost a point. There is more to gain in going for a win wherever possible.
How many times this season have we watched live or listened on the radio to stoppage time and its like the bloody Alamo. Shots, crosses, corners all flashing across the box. Defenders throwing themselves right, left and centre, manfully trying to stem the onrushing tide. It just seems like panic trying to hold on. You just know, in your heart of hearts, that eventually we will crack.
It even gets to the keepers ( Birmingham + Forest ) and at Wolves, against a very ordinary side, we couldn't hold on against ten. We kept giving away corners, got warned with a very near miss and then got punished, with no man on either post and everyone trying to attack the ball like a bunch of kids.
I also agree that a real leader in midfield a la Brian Horton would help us close out more games.

I see what you are saying, but we concede most of our late goals when we're in winning positions, not drawing.