Will 74 points be enough to get us in the play offs?

[Paris]

Coz that's what I think we'll end up with.

Bolton (A) - Draw
Ipswich (H) - Win
Sheff Wed (A) - Draw
Boro (H) - Draw
Blackburn (A) - Lose
Barnsley (A) - Win
Leicester (A) - Lose
Charlton (H) - Win
Huddersfield (A) - Win
Blackpool (H) - Win
Yeovil (H) - Win
Forest (A) - Lose

I reckon we'll beat Leicester, as they'll be as good as up by the time we play them.

7 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats is not out of the question. That would take us on to 77 points.

If only it was that easy

 

[HawkTheSeagull]

If anything, I would HATE to have to go to Forest on the final day needing a win, especially if they also need one. That said, the same thing happened last season where Forest and Leicester played each other with the winner getting the final spot, bet Forest wouldnt want to do the same for the 2nd year in a row.

Seal 5th place against Yeovil - jobs a good'n.

 

[Simster]

I reckon we'll beat Leicester, as they'll be as good as up by the time we play them.

They are 15 points clear. Sods law dictates that they'll need something from our game against them to assure promotion.

 

[Pavilionaire]

They are 15 points clear. Sods law dictates that they'll need something from our game against them to assure promotion.

I fancy they'll clinch vs Sheff Wed on the Friday, then play us on the Tuesday. If it pans out like that it could be a very much more winnable match as compared to the scenario you mentioned.

 

[mwrpoole]

With 18 games left we were on 40 points, and I said we needed to average 2 points per game thereafter to get to 76 which should be enough. Since then we've played 6 and taken 13 points. A draw at Bolton would be a decent result and have us bang on target with 14 points from 7.

 

[stripeyshark]

Coz that's what I think we'll end up with.

Bolton (A) - Draw
Ipswich (H) - Win
Sheff Wed (A) - Draw
Boro (H) - Draw
Blackburn (A) - Lose
Barnsley (A) - Win
Leicester (A) - Lose
Charlton (H) - Win
Huddersfield (A) - Win
Blackpool (H) - Win
Yeovil (H) - Win
Forest (A) - Lose

If we beat forest, yes. If we don't, probably not.

 

[Paris]

Knowing us we'll probably beat Bolton and lose to the likes of Barnsley. We usually struggle at Hillsborough.

Should make for an interesting run-in

 

[Machiavelli]

Yes, you do keep saying it, and yes you keep being ignored because it's a pointless and not particularly clever observation, especially as a lot depends on against whom those points are won.

We all KNOW we need one point more than 7th place. What we don't know is how many that points total will actually be, so really it doesn't matter whether you average out the number of points 6th place got over the last decade, or the number of points 7th place got and add one - the two numbers are likely to be very similar.

And I've just checked - they are. The average gap between 6th and 7th over the past 10 years is 2.3 points. And that is only because of the anomaly of 2006 where there was a massive 8 point gap. The median average gap between 6th and 7th in that 10 year period (which is more relevant) is actually only 1.5 points.




Oh, and this is the correct answer:
Although, I'd add Derby to that because they seem very catchable to me.

You are indeed correct to say that dougdeep has the correct answer, but that is just another way of saying that we need more points than the team finishing in seventh place. You are incorrect, however, to not ignore my pointlessness and trite observations -- they merely should be ignored. But now I've got you to engage on terrain that you shouldn't be bothering with, my comment about focusing on seventh place was a response to the numerous questions that have been raised, and answers that have been offered, about the history in the Championship of sixth place finishes.

 

[Paddy B]

This season is looking remarkably like last season. As it stands we are still two points behind last seasons total after the same amount of games but last season we only got 1 point from games 35,36 & 37 so we have a good chance of being ahead of the game shortly.

Incidentally after the 37th game last season we were 9 points behind 4th place. This season its currently only 7 points

 

[Albion 4ever]

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/runin.html

This is always a good link to check on whether this type of question comes up.

Based on current form it has:

1. Leicester 107
2. Burnley 94
3. Wigan 85
4. Derby 81
5. Reading 75
6. Brighton 74
7. QPR 72
8. Notts Forest 68

 

[Peter Grummit]

If anything, I would HATE to have to go to Forest on the final day needing a win, especially if they also need one. That said, the same thing happened last season where Forest and Leicester played each other with the winner getting the final spot, bet Forest wouldnt want to do the same for the 2nd year in a row.

Seal 5th place against Yeovil - jobs a good'n.

Those are the sort of days we should be relishing as Albion fans. We've had lots of last day survival games (Leeds; Hereford; Grimsby; Sheff Wed; Stockport) and those where going up/play-offs depended on it (Watford; Rochdale; Blackpool; Newcastle; Sheff Utd; Bristol Rovers; Ipswich; Palace) have by and large been legendary.

If we get to play Forest in those circumstances, I'll have your ticket HtS.

PG

 

[Footsoldier]

Bolton (A) - Draw
Ipswich (H) - Draw.
Sheff Wed (A) - Draw
Boro (H) - Win.
Blackburn (A) - Lose
Barnsley (A) - Draw.
Leicester (A) - Lose
Charlton (H) - Win.
Huddersfield (A) - Draw.
Blackpool (H) - Win
Yeovil (H) - Draw.
Forest (A) - Lose.

15pts.

 

[Rugrat]

Those are the sort of days we should be relishing as Albion fans. We've had lots of last day survival games (Leeds; Hereford; Grimsby; Sheff Wed; Stockport) and those where going up/play-offs depended on it (Watford; Rochdale; Blackpool; Newcastle; Sheff Utd; Bristol Rovers; Ipswich; Palace) have by and large been legendary.

If we get to play Forest in those circumstances, I'll have your ticket HtS.

PG

Totally agree! I've already looked up the best train deals but you can bet Forest would give us the bare minimum and who knows what demand would be ... it'll be a cracker

 

[Lifelong Supporter]

I would snatch your hand off for 74 points now and let the others do the chasing towards that. It is likely to be enough for sure.

We are very dependent on Ulloa. If he stays fit we could well get there but if he gets injured there is no natural replacement and there will need to be some change in playing style.

 

[Goldstone1976]

15pts.

If we'd performed that badly for the season so far (1.25 points/game), we'd currently be in 16th. Why do you think we'll do so much worse than the season to date?

 

[Questions]

If as has been stated a couple of times we need to finish above two of Forest, Reading or Wigan then I don't think we'll do it.
We might just nick some more 1-0's I suppose and get there so let's hope we can keep Buckley fit and then go for it a bit more this time. If we get there and sit back like we did against Palace last season that would do me in.