Why the Election polls were wrong ..

[GT49er]

To be fair, nobody was going to admit that they intended to vote Tory, were they?

Always been the case, and although the pollsters claim to have factored it in, it is highly doubtful if they have called it right.

 

[KingstonSeagull]

A panel of experts has concluded this was due to Tory voters being under-represented in phone and online polls.

 

[Gullflyinghigh]

Isn't it the job of the pollsters to ensure that the right 'mix' is achieved in the first place?

I might be over-simplifying this (or being thick and missing the point) but surely that they failed to achieve this isn't earth shattering news?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Isn't it the job of the pollsters to ensure that the right 'mix' is achieved in the first place?

I might be over-simplifying this (or being thick and missing the point) but surely that they failed to achieve this isn't earth shattering news?

One of the happier fallouts of the election, watching the pollsters squirm, back-peddle, retro-spin and basically try to justify their fees and indeed their very existence.

 

[Titanic]

It would be interesting, but perhaps impossible, to know if the polls being published in the weeks prior to the election with a narrow Labour win looking likely actually had an effect one way or the other on the way people actually voted.

 

[Codner pharmaceuticals]

Aren't lefties just a bit more aggressive and shouty??

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The pollsters rang me but I refused saying I didn't discuss politics over the phone.

Has Paddy Ashdown eaten his hat yet?

 

[beorhthelm]

Isn't it the job of the pollsters to ensure that the right 'mix' is achieved in the first place?

I might be over-simplifying this (or being thick and missing the point) but surely that they failed to achieve this isn't earth shattering news?

that's their idea. however, how can you achieve a mix if large groups of demographic dont want to participate in the questionnaires, by phone, online or in the street? basically we've learned that a lot of Tory voters are busy people.

 

[Pavilionaire]

To be fair, nobody was going to admit that they intended to vote Tory, were they?

But happy to admit they'd be voting for buffoon Red Ed??

 

[JC Footy Genius]

It would be interesting, but perhaps impossible, to know if the polls being published in the weeks prior to the election with a narrow Labour win looking likely actually had an effect one way or the other on the way people actually voted.

I think the polls continually showing the very real possibility of a hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party propped up by the SNP may well have motivated Tory supporters and increased the Conservative vote.

According to Labour MP Ben Bradshaw (Daily politics) Labour's private polling did show they were always well behind during 2015. He also said add 3 points to the current Tory poll lead and - 3 from Labour's to better reflect public opinion.

 

[Gwylan]

basically we've learned that a lot of Tory voters are busy people.

That's not the case though. Basically, the samples didn't have enough pensioners (who tend to vote Tory).

"YouGov, which pays a panel of thousands of online volunteers to complete surveys, admitted they did not have access to enough people in their seventies and older, who were more likely to vote Conservative."

It's more to do with these people being less likely to have computers and mobile phones and being more reluctant to answer phone polls.