Who are our most influential defenders?

[Verily I Say Unto Thee]

Ok, it's Sunday. Should I fix the fence that's been hanging by a splinter since Thursday, start that laminate flooring or do something far more interesting?

The Henderson/Kuipers debate left me wondering which players have achieved the best results when starting games this season.

So, courtesy of a copy and paste from the official site and a little spreadsheetery, here are the stats in terms of games won, drawn and lost when each of our defenders has started games this season (hope this formats OK on everybody's browser):

        [SIZE=3]Games         Started   Won    Drawn    Lost  Success Rate
     Overall          36      16      5       15        51%
     Goalkeeper
     Henderson        25      9       4       12        44%
     Kuipers          11      6       1       4         59%
     Right Back
     Whing            15      7       3       5         57%
     Reid             8       3       2       3         50%
     El-Abd           5       2       0       3         40%
     A N Other        8       3       0       5         38%
     Right Centre Back
     El-Abd           8       2       1       5         31%
     Santos           8       3       1       4         44%
     Lynch            5       1       1       3         30%
     Hinshelwood      15      9       2       4         67%
     Left Centre Back
     Butters          19      7       3       9         45%
     Lynch            17      8       2       7         53%
     Left Back
     Mayo             19      10      3       6         61%
     Rents            11      5       1       5         50%
     A N Other        6       0       1       5         8%[/size]

A surprise or two there maybe?

Disclaimer etc. etc. Success Rate = (Games Won + 0.5 x Games Drawn)/(Games Started)

 

[Les Biehn]

So a defence of;

Kuipers
Whing Hinsh Lynch Mayo

would seem to be our best bet.

 

[Yorkie]

Perhaps it would be a better table if you only included league games rather than non league opposition in cup games?

 

[ali jenkins]

Who is this A N Other player?

looks quite usefull as he can play on both flanks!

 

[Verily I Say Unto Thee]

The above is for all matches so I was worried that a few easy cup games may have been skewing the statistics a little. So here are the stats for league games only:

        [SIZE=3]   Games         Started   Won    Drawn    Lost  Success Rate
        Overall          28      10      4       14        43%
        Goalkeeper
        Henderson        20      6       3       11        38%
        Kuipers          8       4       1       3         56%
        Right Back
        Whing            12      5       2       5         50%
        Reid             6       2       2       2         50%
        El-Abd           5       2       0       3         40%
        A N Other        5       1       0       4         20%
        Right Centre Back
        El-Abd           7       2       1       4         36%
        Santos           7       2       1       4         36%
        Lynch            4       1       1       2         38%
        Hinshelwood      10      5       1       4         55%
        Left Centre Back
        Butters          14      4       2       8         36%
        Lynch            14      6       2       6         50%
        Left Back
        Mayo             13      6       3       4         58%
        Rents            10      4       1       5         45%
        A N Other        5       0       0       5         0%
[/size]

 

[dougdeep]

Perhaps it would be a better table if you only included league games rather than non league opposition in cup games?

You're hard to please today mate.

 

[ali jenkins]

Who is this A N Other player?

looks quite usefull as he can play on both flanks!

And i think Les has got our best 5 defensive players there.

Could you do it with the rest of the team aswell?

 

[Verily I Say Unto Thee]

Perhaps it would be a better table if you only included league games rather than non league opposition in cup games?

:Smug smilie:

 

[Verily I Say Unto Thee]

And i think Les has got our best 5 defensive players there.

Could you do it with the rest of the team aswell?

Yeah, shame they're not all available. If there's another lesson, it looks like it's don't play defensive players out of position

Working on the other bit. May need to write a macro or two.

 

[Les Biehn]

I would say our best back 4 with all fit is;

Kuipers
El-Abd Hinsh Butters Lynch

 

[ali jenkins]

I would say our best back 4 with all fit is;

Kuipers
El-Abd Hinsh Butters Lynch

I'd keep El-Abd in the 'holding' role in the middle of the park as it gives Hammond the freedom to roam and play his natural game.

Also i think Mayo's experiance could be needed as our team is young enough as it is.


Personally id have this as my first XI if there all fit...


Kuipers

Ried Hinsh Butters Mayo

El-Abd

Hart Hammond Cox

Robinson Revell

Subs:
Hendo
Lynch
Frutos
Chippie
Gatting

 

[Race]

(waiting, looking at watch)

 

[ali jenkins]

(waiting, looking at watch)

For what?

 

[Les Biehn]

With all fit I would go for;

Kuipers
El-Bad Hinsh Butters Lynch
Cox Reid Fraser Frutos
Robinson Revell

Subs
Hendo
Rents
Mayo/Hart
Hammond
Gatting

 

[Yorkie]

You're hard to please today mate.

It just goes to show you can prove anything with statistics.
Politicians do it all the time.

 

[ali jenkins]

El-ABD cant be that bad if you would start him at Right back!

 

[RexCathedra]

Sample sizes probably too small to rule out chance effects, and thus to be meaningful....

Number-crunching like this works with baseball and its huge numbers -- a 162 game season -- but in that case, everyone knows statistics aren't dispositive till June 1 or so, and that's after 50-some games, or almost an entire Football League season, and all the most important statistics come out of the pitcher-catcher confrontation, which is binary.

Stat-head approaches to the NBA have been problematical, because the season is shorter -- ca. 90 games -- and the play is a much more polyvariate thing.

I couldn't put it better than this fellow:

First, offensive contribution in baseball can be measured for players independently of the rest of the team's contribution. Not the case in soccer, where a forward's goal scoring may depend on the quality of service from the midfield and a midfielder's assists may depend on the quality of finishing from the forwards.

Second, in baseball, offensive contributions can be measured identically for every player, regardless of their position or the team's "style of play." It doesn't matter whether a player is a shortstop or a right fielder, their hits are worth just as much. In soccer, even just at a single position like forward, you can have several different types of players - Brian McBride type forwards, Landon Donavan type forwards, Taylor Twellman type forwards - and the contribution each type makes may not be measurable by the same standard. Also, what you want from these players may vary depending on what formation or tactics a team is using. It's not clear how the value of different players could be reliably and consistently compared.

Discussion continues here.

There is a place for human expertise, and football is one of them. Hence the importance of a manager, and more particularly a manager who knows what the limits of what a manager can accomplish.