We're 98% certain to reach the play-offs

[John Bumlick]

Bet 365..

Brighton 1/100 to make playoffs, there 100% certain we make it

they're

 

[Triggaaar]

Vegas Seagull is correct (with a user name like that he should be able to work out the odds)

Three possible outcomes for the two Brighton games = 6
Ditto for Bolton = 6
Ditto for Forest = 6
Three poss outcomes for three Palace games = 9

So number of possible combinations 6x6x6x9 = 1944

Looks completely wrong to me. How does:
"Three possible outcomes for the two Brighton games = 6"? It should be 9 (3*3)
So it should be 9*9*9*27 = 19,683.

 

[Gwylan]

Looks completely wrong to me. How does:
"Three possible outcomes for the two Brighton games = 6"? It should be 9 (3*3)
So it should be 9*9*9*27 = 19,683.

Ooops...you're right. Scrub that calculation then - I knew I shouldn't have tried to do it late at night

 

[kevo]

Looks completely wrong to me. How does:
"Three possible outcomes for the two Brighton games = 6"? It should be 9 (3*3)
So it should be 9*9*9*27 = 19,683.

No, he's right. Only six possible outcomes from two games:

6 pts (W+W)
4 pts (W+D)
3 pts (W+L)
2 pts (D+D)
1 pt (D+L)
0 pts (L+L)

 

[Socialist Sid]

Ooops...you're right. Scrub that calculation then - I knew I shouldn't have tried to do it late at night

I've always reckoned that there are 3 types of mathematician, a good one and a bad one.

 

[Triggaaar]

No, he's right. Only six possible outcomes from two games:

6 pts (W+W)
4 pts (W+D)
3 pts (W+L)
2 pts (D+D)
1 pt (D+L)
0 pts (L+L)

No, those are number of points, not possible results. That won't help you work out the odds.

Note the OP said: "There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100."

 

[Gwylan]

No, those are number of points, not possible results. That won't help you work out the odds.

Note the OP said: "There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100."

Yes. And there are actually only 60 combinations would produce a situation where Brighton wouldn't reach the play-offs. So, the odds are 99.7% that Brighton will reach the playoffs. I'm more awake now

 

[kevo]

My head hurts.

 

[Triggaaar]

No, he's right. Only six possible outcomes from two games:

6 pts (W+W)
4 pts (W+D)
3 pts (W+L)
2 pts (D+D)
1 pt (D+L)
0 pts (L+L)

My head hurts.

Just to use your example to explain, with 1 game, there are 3 possible results (W,L,D), with 2 games there are 9 possible results (but as you said, only 6 possible outcomes points wise). Those 9 are:
W,W
W,D
W,L
L,L
L,D
L,W
D,D
D,W
D,L

The easy way to work that out is simply 3 (from 1 game) * 3 (from the second game).

 

[kevo]

Just to use your example to explain, with 1 game, there are 3 possible results (W,L,D), with 2 games there are 9 possible results (but as you said, only 6 possible outcomes points wise). Those 9 are:
W,W
W,D
W,L
L,L
L,D
L,W
D,D
D,W
D,L

The easy way to work that out is simply 3 (from 1 game) * 3 (from the second game).

But isn't it outcomes that count rather than results - it doesn't matter whether it's a D and a W or a W and a D? Both result in four points.

 

[Triggaaar]

But isn't it outcomes that count rather than results - it doesn't matter whether it's a D and a W or a W and a D? Both result in four points.

If you just want to know the possible points outcomes, then yes. But if you want to work out the combinations of getting there, then no. Either is fine, but the OP was talking about combinations of results in the remaining games, not combinations of points.

 

[Pat McCrotch]

I think we can say, we're in the playoffs.

 

[trueblue]

I think we can say, we're in the playoffs.

Hmmm. If Leeds turn it around, the other scores couldn't be worse. I'll wait, thanks.

 

[kevo]

You're all wrong - I make it 100%!