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Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,317
Faversham
Clinton to win by a big margin, 'Staying In' to win the EU Referendum by a clear margin and the Tories to win the next election with a much increased majority .... get your money on folks.

Crikey. In the US it is an electoral college, and one that favours the rural voter (republican). I think it will be very close in both the US election and the EU referendum (even I, in my wildest drunken moments, get the occasional urge to vote 'leave', just for the merry hell of it, which is what I suspect a lot of fence sitters may do - till I sober up). But I agree with you about the UK general election. Unless Corby does the decent thing and elects to spend more time with his family. All the best!
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,325
Flat rate taxes? Some on the left think they are unfair because everyone 'pays the same'. My brother (an English graduate from KCL) thinks this. It is total inumerate bollocks.

its because, if you were not aware, many on the left dont see taxation as a means to an end, to provide services and institutions of the state, they believe taxation is a end in itself, to engage in redistribution and essentially penalise those with more. they also have a special dictionary which rather than having "fair" meaning "treat equally", has a meaning "everyone should be equal", noble intention but sorely misguided. i digress, but i wish we could get some consensus that flat taxation would benefit the wider population by having simple tax, less cost for collection and less scope for avoidance and evasion.
 


The_Viper

Well-known member
Oct 10, 2010
4,345
Charlotte, NC
Yes, Clinton would be so much better. Honestly I would much rather a Trump president than Clinton, with Trump you know that even if the checks and balances forces a Trump POTUS to a standstill it'll be better than Hillary in charge. It makes me laugh all these people claiming The Donald will bring about WW3, or break the US apart, or destroy the west, or whatever nutty thing they're saying and then vote for someone who is such a warmonger it's insane, simply because she's a woman, or "she's waited long enough" or "she's been in the game a long time".

HVH-2_1447531589.png
 


gregbrighton

New member
Aug 10, 2014
2,059
Brighton
Trump is a tossbag. He won't garner enough delegate votes to win though. Expect a bloodbath when it comes to the GOP convention. The establishment will gerrymander this and it will be a disaster for the Republicans. Hilary will have it in the bag.
 






beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,325
Trump is a tossbag. He won't garner enough delegate votes to win though.

i dont understand the ins and outs of how the delegates are allocated state by state, but can see that Trump is likley to do well in the east coast states and is leading in California, with the largest number available. i dont see therefore why people are writing off his chances of getting enough, looks tight but the run rate is there abouts.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,317
Faversham
its because, if you were not aware, many on the left dont see taxation as a means to an end, to provide services and institutions of the state, they believe taxation is a end in itself, to engage in redistribution and essentially penalise those with more. they also have a special dictionary which rather than having "fair" meaning "treat equally", has a meaning "everyone should be equal", noble intention but sorely misguided. i digress, but i wish we could get some consensus that flat taxation would benefit the wider population by having simple tax, less cost for collection and less scope for avoidance and evasion.

Agree with all that, except 'many'. I doubt that the majority of folk who favour a higher percentage tax rate for the rich actually understand the maths, let alone understand the maths sufficiently to realise it is a way of redistributing wealth. Only a tiny fraction of labour lefties are actually communists. Indeed most of the communists are in the SWP (like my local shop steward - the soft shite) and regard labour as running dog lackies of imperialism. Like that tube union leader cock who died a couple of years ago.

No, the main problem with flat rate tax is people just don't get it. Even the tories believe in a graduated % tax, and they are hardly redistributionists. Interesting thoughts though :salute:.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,317
Faversham
That (below) is not exactly an indictment. In 2008 HC wore burgandy nail varnish. Now the old trollop has u-turned and wears cerise. FFS . . . . .

Yes, Clinton would be so much better. Honestly I would much rather a Trump president than Clinton, with Trump you know that even if the checks and balances forces a Trump POTUS to a standstill it'll be better than Hillary in charge. It makes me laugh all these people claiming The Donald will bring about WW3, or break the US apart, or destroy the west, or whatever nutty thing they're saying and then vote for someone who is such a warmonger it's insane, simply because she's a woman, or "she's waited long enough" or "she's been in the game a long time".

View attachment 73373
 




El Presidente

The ONLY Gay in Brighton
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,714
Pattknull med Haksprut
Yup, although I did caveat the post with the 'allegedly independent' comment. I think the Tax Foundation is well known as being right-leaning in practice. I still think there is a lot of merit in looking further into Cruz' tax plans, it's refreshing to see genuine new thinking on the subject and for someone to look to simplify tax legislation.

I think that the view that reducing the tax rate so that both individuals and corporations say "It's only 12%/15%" etc has some merit in theory. I think they tried something similar in Russia.

If you are Apple and making profits of $40 billion a year, there's always going to be a sleazy lawyer or accountant who will whisper in the company's ear that they have a scheme to reduce the tax paid to only 5%, and that will increase bottom line.

The other problem is that there are different tax rates in different countries, which is why Apple books so much of its profits overseas, and keeps the cash there too.
 


sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
12,526
Hove
Trump is a tossbag. He won't garner enough delegate votes to win though. Expect a bloodbath when it comes to the GOP convention. The establishment will gerrymander this and it will be a disaster for the Republicans. Hilary will have it in the bag.
Particularly as there is a proposal to let attendees carry guns into the convention ( in order to protect themselves and their families ). Maybe a bloodbath as you say.
 


Tom Bombadil

Well-known member
Jul 14, 2003
6,035
Jibrovia
its because, if you were not aware, many on the left dont see taxation as a means to an end, to provide services and institutions of the state, they believe taxation is a end in itself, to engage in redistribution and essentially penalise those with more. they also have a special dictionary which rather than having "fair" meaning "treat equally", has a meaning "everyone should be equal", noble intention but sorely misguided. i digress, but i wish we could get some consensus that flat taxation would benefit the wider population by having simple tax, less cost for collection and less scope for avoidance and evasion.

What a load of nonsense.
 




sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
12,526
Hove
i dont understand the ins and outs of how the delegates are allocated state by state, but can see that Trump is likley to do well in the east coast states and is leading in California, with the largest number available. i dont see therefore why people are writing off his chances of getting enough, looks tight but the run rate is there abouts.
His only chance is to get 50+% in the initial ballot. If he doesn't, then in subsequent ballots the delegates can vote for who they want ( not tied to their primary results ) and he's likely to be sunk.
 


Spicy

We're going up.
Dec 18, 2003
6,038
London
Trump should be punished for having that haircut as it is a danger to the future of mankind.
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
59,666
The Fatherland
His only chance is to get 50+% in the initial ballot. If he doesn't, then in subsequent ballots the delegates can vote for who they want ( not tied to their primary results ) and he's likely to be sunk.

I think this is the most likely outcome now. The presidency is now Clinton's to lose. And she will have to royally **** up to lose it now.
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,325
His only chance is to get 50+% in the initial ballot.

this much is is simple. i dont see why people are saying he cant do that, he's not far off, having something like 60% to the target with 62% of the primary done. a couple of big wins and its on.

and if it goes to the conference, are that many delegates going to back someone else, who? Cruz aint popular in the party either and anyone else will look like a loser. Trump + sensible looking party man might become a decent compromise?
 


MattBackHome

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
11,732
Exactly right the closer he gets to the White House the bigger the gap gets. It will be a rout unless the Republicans manage to engineer his removal.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Clinton to win by a big margin, 'Staying In' to win the EU Referendum by a clear margin and the Tories to win the next election with a much increased majority .... get your money on folks.
Anyone who wants to double their money should look at a treble of Clinton/Bremain/Khan.

Easy money.
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
59,666
The Fatherland
this much is is simple. i dont see why people are saying he cant do that, he's not far off, having something like 60% to the target with 62% of the primary done. a couple of big wins and its on.

and if it goes to the conference, are that many delegates going to back someone else, who? Cruz aint popular in the party either and anyone else will look like a loser. Trump + sensible looking party man might become a decent compromise?

He faces a tricky path to that threshold.
Trump currently has 736 delegates, according to The Associated Press. He needs to win 501 more, about 56 percent of the approximately 900 still up for grabs, to reach 1,237.

About one-third of those outstanding delegates will be allocated across five states in contests on June 7, the final day of elections, making it highly unlikely that Trump or anyone hits the threshold before then.

And Trump faces a potential setback in the five winner-take-all states still on the map. The GOP front-runner is favored to win fewer than half of those 159 delegates, and Cruz could take a majority.

Cruz, who has only 463 delegates, would have to secure another 774, about 86 percent of outstanding delegates, to clinch the nomination.

It also appears unlikely that Cruz would overtake Trump in delegates even if both men fall short of 1,237, though Cruz will have ample opportunities to close the gap.

Kasich, with 143 delegates, has been mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination before this summer's Republican National Convention. Even if he wins every remaining delegate, he’d still fall short of a majority.

However, Cruz and Kasich have a reasonable chance of forcing a contested convention if they can finish on top in several winner-take-all states, post victories at the congressional district level in others, and secure delegates in states that aren’t holding presidential primaries or caucuses.

Like the front-runner, they also have very little margin for error.
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,325
He faces a tricky path to that threshold.

it is traditional to cite your source when copy+pasting. what that article goes onto note is that he needs to win New York and California, where he is a shoe in and ahead respectively. it lists the winner takes all states remain, overlooking the largest of these is New Jersey where Trump is miles ahead, and having looked it up ahead by some margin in all the others (maybe a biased poll i looking at though). it is tight, but not so tight to write him off, unless its just media trying to talk down his chances. its fascinating to watch someone so obviously un-electable being widely voted for.
 


JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
Crikey. In the US it is an electoral college, and one that favours the rural voter (republican). I think it will be very close in both the US election and the EU referendum (even I, in my wildest drunken moments, get the occasional urge to vote 'leave', just for the merry hell of it, which is what I suspect a lot of fence sitters may do - till I sober up). But I agree with you about the UK general election. Unless Corby does the decent thing and elects to spend more time with his family. All the best!

Make sure your well tanked up on the 23rd of June :cheers:
 


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