[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[ozzygull]

Have you ever seen such a sore loser?….

I don't know about sore loser, but complete and utter *unt seems more appropriate

 

[beorhthelm]

I’m predicting that Rishi is going to be pushed into announcing an election date by his own party.

His instinct will be to hold on as long as possible, in the hope that there’s an upturn in the party’s fortunes, while those with an axe to grind will grumble and organize below him.

Should there be any sign of an organized coup he’ll immediately push the election button in order to save himself.

he's an economics guy, that will drive election plan. he'll want to have one last Budget and let some effect of that come through. if Q1 GDP growth is positive that'll help, first interest rate cut in March/April, look to get it over with in summer (June, early July). otherwise wait until October (miss the conference season). leaving to Jan would look bad in itself and probably mean economic numbers haven't improved.

 

[The Clamp]

We’re in a recession. It’s not going well.

 

[Daddies_Sauce]

I’m predicting that Rishi is going to be pushed into announcing an election date by his own party.

I'm not so sure, they will want to cling on to power by their finger tips, having one last dip into the gravy train that is OUR money, before having to sign on.

They are corrupt, feathering the nest of themselves and their mates. Hunt has done to the economy that which he did to the NHS, screwed it, he did not 'reduce inflation' our independent bank did, together with the global reducing of fuel and food costs.

I just hope that the gullible members of the voting public, do not fall for the tax cut bribe funded by the further cuts in public services as being muted for the next budget.

 

[The Clamp]

I'm not so sure, they will want to cling on to power by their finger tips, having one last dip into the gravy train that is OUR money, before having to sign on.

They are corrupt, feathering the nest of themselves and their mates. Hunt has done to the economy that which he did to the NHS, screwed it, he did not 'reduce inflation' our independent bank did, together with the global reducing of fuel and food costs.

I just hope that the gullible members of the voting public, do not fall for the tax cut bribe funded by the further cuts in public services as being muted for the next budget.

Exactly this. They have stolen from the taxpayer to the tune of billions. Siphoning finds off to themselves and their chums.

Every now and again they come out and say some slogans and promise us they’re trying to sort everything out.

A GE will let them off the hook. A bit like getting sacked from your shop job before they find out you’ve been munching all the Curly Wurly’s.

 

[chickens]

he's an economics guy, that will drive election plan. he'll want to have one last Budget and let some effect of that come through. if Q1 GDP growth is positive that'll help, first interest rate cut in March/April, look to get it over with in summer (June, early July). otherwise wait until October (miss the conference season). leaving to Jan would look bad in itself and probably mean economic numbers haven't improved.

I agree that’s what he’ll want, but he governs by the grace of a party who are all watching him closely and openly sharpening their knives.

If he so much as feels a movement of air behind him he’ll push the election button. Not because that’s what he wants, but because they can’t then swap him out and retain the vaguest semblance of being a functional, electable political party.

 

[chickens]

I'm not so sure, they will want to cling on to power by their finger tips, having one last dip into the gravy train that is OUR money, before having to sign on.

They are corrupt, feathering the nest of themselves and their mates. Hunt has done to the economy that which he did to the NHS, screwed it, he did not 'reduce inflation' our independent bank did, together with the global reducing of fuel and food costs.

I just hope that the gullible members of the voting public, do not fall for the tax cut bribe funded by the further cuts in public services as being muted for the next budget.

Your points are valid, but my point is that desperate cornered creatures are unpredictable. I wouldn’t put it past them to try and swap leader again, even though Rishi is (depressingly) about as good as it gets for them.

I think that yet again it’s going to be internal Tory squabbling, rather than any thought of what’s best for the country, that’s going to determine when the next election is eventually scheduled for.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Your points are valid, but my point is that desperate cornered creatures are unpredictable. I wouldn’t put it past them to try and swap leader again, even though Rishi is (depressingly) about as good as it gets for them.

I think that yet again it’s going to be internal Tory squabbling, rather than any thought of what’s best for the country, that’s going to determine when the next election is eventually scheduled for.

But this whole Government has been defined by internal narcissistic and financially self serving squabbling between totally incompetent MPs, cabinet ministers and various SPADs, with no regard for the country getting f***ed over in the process, ever since being elected in 2019.

Exactly as predicted

 

[The Clamp]

Part of me thinks they’ll just want to hang tough and see what happens at the GE.

We have a history of voting against our own best interests.

And you know what? Don’t rule them out winning.

 

[Bodian]

A GE will let them off the hook. A bit like getting sacked from your shop job before they find out you’ve been munching all the Curly Wurly’s.

And they will then spend the next five years blaming Labour for all the stuff that comes out of the woodwork, and the consequences of their own actions.

 

[MJsGhost]

I wouldn’t put it past them to try and swap leader again

I hope they do.

It would go from landslide to complete and utter annihilation.

Which would be nice.

 

[The Clamp]

I can imagine Sunak and his cronies will turn on the electorate if they are slung out. Lots of;

“You should have given us more time”
Etc

Yeah, go on, get in your ditch.

 

[beorhthelm]

I agree that’s what he’ll want, but he governs by the grace of a party who are all watching him closely and openly sharpening their knives.

If he so much as feels a movement of air behind him he’ll push the election button. Not because that’s what he wants, but because they can’t then swap him out and retain the vaguest semblance of being a functional, electable political party.

yes, reckon he'd rather face the country than another leadership election.

 

[Bodian]

Not being quite honest and open....

 

[TomandJerry]

Rishi Sunak has insisted that his government can afford to cut taxes, despite the country having entered a recession, because “economic conditions have improved”.

 

[Stat Brother]

The great man himself

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The 'shy tory'.

Yes, there are millions of voters who will vote tory and would prefer to not admit it.

I would imagine they are the sort of people who, if they found a wallet on the street with money in it, would keep it.

I'm not sure they are as much shy as ashamed of themselves. They know they are doing something which might case them some good individually but collectively disastrous for society. They know that the real reasons they do it, they don't like brown people, they are well off enough not to need the NHS or local services, so don't mind if they go to ruin are unsayable in public, so they come up with implausible excuses, such as they can't vote labour, because there were power cuts in the 70s.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Rishi Sunak has insisted that his government can afford to cut taxes, despite the country having entered a recession, because “economic conditions have improved”.

Tax cuts now, really are the last ditch gambits of all last ditch gambits.

Not a single sensible person thinks that now is a sensible time, or that the economy can withstand a pre election giveaway. Yet they continue to think about themselves. They continue to salt the earth for the incoming labour party

 

[TomandJerry]

Tax cuts now, really are the last ditch gambits of all last ditch gambits.

Not a single sensible person thinks that now is a sensible time, or that the economy can withstand a pre election giveaway. Yet they continue to think about themselves. They continue to salt the earth for the incoming labour party

Problem is, is that if they win the election they will have to implement the tax cuts ...

 

[Audax]

Labour should be extremely worried that people are not enthused enough to come out and vote for them yet

Personally think this is a lazy narrative from the press. By-elections typically have lower turn out, there's nothing unusual in that. Neither of yesterday's turnouts are anywhere near the list of lowest by-election turnouts, and aren't even low by the standards of the current parliament (there were 3 in 2022 that were substantially lower (under 30%, Southend West at 24%).

Edit: found a good source. Average by-election turnout between 1979 and 2022 was a tickle over 50%. But there's a graph with that data that shows it's closer to 40% if you change that time slice to be 1998(ish) through 2022. So while yesterday's turnouts are slightly lower than average, they aren't that much lower - and they certainly aren't the lowest in the current parliamentary cycle. Personally don't see anything noteworthy in these two being sub-40% turnouts. In fact, looking at the last 15 by-elections over 2022 to now (15 ... Eff me, that in itself tells us how bad the Tories have been):

Average turnout: 37.88% (probably slightly down on that 98-22 average, I suspect)
Median turnout: 38%
Std Dev: 7.8

So ... nothing remarkable about yesterday's turnouts, IMO. Standard fair for by-elections in recent history (and by that I mean 98-22).