[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - The Staying Up Tracker - season 21-22 Final Update - 11 ABOVE

[Machiavelli]

I'd chuck Brentford in there too as potential for getting dragged in. That said, I'd be amazed if a side that accrues 36 points gets relegated. I have said this, or something not far off it, in all of the past five seasons, and am usually told that I'm wrong, complacent, etc. Feel free to bounce at the end of the season or, for a more instant response, identify where the spread bet companies identify the points needed for survival.

 

[Giraffe]

I'd chuck Brentford in there too as potential for getting dragged in. That said, I'd be amazed if a side that accrues 36 points gets relegated. I have said this, or something not far off it, in all of the past five seasons, and am usually told that I'm wrong, complacent, etc. Feel free to bounce at the end of the season or, for a more instant response, identify where the spread bet companies identify the points needed for survival.

This discussion point comes up every season and again I don't disagree, but to have a thread that was 95% certain of showing you were staying up would be misleading I think.

Last 7 seasons, points needed to stay up plus the points recorded by whoever finished 17th which shows a further level of comfort:

20-21 29 to stay up, 39 achieved by 17th (Burnley)
19-20 35 to stay up, 35 achieved by 17th (Villa)
18-19 35 to stay up, 36 achieved by 17th (Us)
17-18 34 to stay up, 36 achieved by 17th (Southampton)
16-17 35 to stay up, 40 achieved by 17th (Watford)
15-16 38 to stay up, 39 achieved by 17th (Sunderland)
14-15 36 to stay up, 38 achieved by 17th (Villa)

 

[Machiavelli]

This discussion point comes up every season and again I don't disagree, but to have a thread that was 95% certain of showing you were staying up would be misleading I think.

Last 7 seasons, points needed to stay up plus the points recorded by whoever finished 17th which shows a further level of comfort:

20-21 29 to stay up, 39 achieved by 17th (Burnley)
19-20 35 to stay up, 35 achieved by 17th (Villa)
18-19 35 to stay up, 36 achieved by 17th (Us)
17-18 34 to stay up, 36 achieved by 17th (Southampton)
16-17 35 to stay up, 40 achieved by 17th (Watford)
15-16 38 to stay up, 39 achieved by 17th (Sunderland)
14-15 36 to stay up, 38 achieved by 17th (Villa)

In no way was that post a criticism of the tracker, which is a fine idea and, as posters regularly point out, as a helpful objective measure to measure the team's progress in a season. You've reinforced my point in providing those survival points over recent seasons. I appreciate that what's required is a tracker for the whole season and your view on the 40 point target, and the ease of the 10 home wins, 10 home draws for visualising it. For me, however, and due to the lower survival total in recent history, the tracker can sometimes encourage onlookers to become somewhat nervy towards the end of the season (say, the last 10 games) when it isn't the best measure of the survival points requirement (which as you've illustrated shifts on a yearly basis).

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

In no way was that post a criticism of the tracker, which is a fine idea and, as posters regularly point out, as a helpful objective measure to measure the team's progress in a season. You've reinforced my point in providing those survival points over recent seasons. I appreciate that what's required is a tracker for the whole season and your view on the 40 point target, and the ease of the 10 home wins, 10 home draws for visualising it. For me, however, and due to the lower survival total in recent history, the tracker can sometimes encourage onlookers to become somewhat nervy towards the end of the season (say, the last 10 games) when it isn't the best measure of the survival points requirement (which as you've illustrated shifts on a yearly basis).

Agree with what you are saying, and know you mean 10 away draws, as getting 10 home wins and 10 home draws from 19 home games would be pretty impressive.
I do wonder however whether there perhaps should be some tweaks to the system, as I am not sure there are too many teams scoring three times as many home points as away points in a season. Has anyone done much analysis on the ratio of home:away points?

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[Bold Seagull]

Agree with what you are saying, and know you mean 10 away draws, as getting 10 home wins and 10 home draws from 19 home games would be pretty impressive.
I do wonder however whether there perhaps should be some tweaks to the system, as I am not sure there are too many teams scoring three times as many home points as away points in a season. Has anyone done much analysis on the ratio of home:away points?

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You could go through season by season on 11v11.com looking at home then away tables. This is 2019:

 

[schmunk]

This discussion point comes up every season and again I don't disagree, but to have a thread that was 95% certain of showing you were staying up would be misleading I think.

Last 7 seasons, points needed to stay up plus the points recorded by whoever finished 17th which shows a further level of comfort:

20-21 29 to stay up, 39 achieved by 17th (Burnley)
19-20 35 to stay up, 35 achieved by 17th (Villa)
18-19 35 to stay up, 36 achieved by 17th (Us)
17-18 34 to stay up, 36 achieved by 17th (Southampton)
16-17 35 to stay up, 40 achieved by 17th (Watford)
15-16 38 to stay up, 39 achieved by 17th (Sunderland)
14-15 36 to stay up, 38 achieved by 17th (Villa)

For the BEDWETTERS, it's also worth noting the points the relegated teams had at 'matchweek 15' (ref: we have 20 points so far this season)

(Points for 18th, 19th, 20th finishing teams)
20-21: 11, 8, 2
19-20: 16, 8, 11
18-19: 11, 9, 10
17-18: 9, 16, 13
16-17: 12, 15, 11
15-16: 13, 13, 6
14-15: 13, 12, 14

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

You could go through season by season on 11v11.com looking at home then away tables. This is 2019:

View attachment 142605View attachment 142606

View attachment Home v Away Ratio 2019 - Sheet1.pdf

Thank you - very sadly (because I was actually interested in this) I have done some actual analysis.
Albion's Home: Away points ratio is 1.77:1 which is the fourth highest, and above the average of 1.35:1. Only Chelsea, Bournemouth have higher, apart from the frankly ridiculous feat of Fulham who managed a 4:20:1 points ratio, only gaining 5 points away all season (1 of those of course at the Amex!)

I suspect given our appalling home runs in the following two seasons, our home:away ratio was probably lower (if I have time I will look into it), and I seem to remember the theory that covid and no crowds was leading to fewer home winss for most teams last season.

Again, this is not to have a go at Giraffe and the tracker which I think is a great tool, but wonder if it overestimates the home performance (i.e. only 8 teams in 2018-19 got 10 home wins, and underestimates the away points (only two teams got less than 10 points away from home).

 

[rogersix]

For the BEDWETTERS, it's also worth noting the points the relegated teams had at 'matchweek 15' (ref: we have 20 points so far this season)

(Points for 18th, 19th, 20th finishing teams)
20-21: 11, 8, 2
19-20: 16, 8, 11
18-19: 11, 9, 10
17-18: 9, 16, 13
16-17: 12, 15, 11
15-16: 13, 13, 6
14-15: 13, 12, 14

cool stat very calming

 

[rogersix]

View attachment 142608

Thank you - very sadly (because I was actually interested in this) I have done some actual analysis.
Albion's Home: Away points ratio is 1.77:1 which is the fourth highest, and above the average of 1.35:1. Only Chelsea, Bournemouth have higher, apart from the frankly ridiculous feat of Fulham who managed a 4:20:1 points ratio, only gaining 5 points away all season (1 of those of course at the Amex!)

I suspect given our appalling home runs in the following two seasons, our home:away ratio was probably lower (if I have time I will look into it), and I seem to remember the theory that covid and no crowds was leading to fewer home winss for most teams last season.

Again, this is not to have a go at Giraffe and the tracker which I think is a great tool, but wonder if it overestimates the home performance (i.e. only 8 teams in 2018-19 got 10 home wins, and underestimates the away points (only two teams got less than 10 points away from home).

top, top, stats; ta

 

[Giraffe]

View attachment 142608

Thank you - very sadly (because I was actually interested in this) I have done some actual analysis.
Albion's Home: Away points ratio is 1.77:1 which is the fourth highest, and above the average of 1.35:1. Only Chelsea, Bournemouth have higher, apart from the frankly ridiculous feat of Fulham who managed a 4:20:1 points ratio, only gaining 5 points away all season (1 of those of course at the Amex!)

I suspect given our appalling home runs in the following two seasons, our home:away ratio was probably lower (if I have time I will look into it), and I seem to remember the theory that covid and no crowds was leading to fewer home winss for most teams last season.

Again, this is not to have a go at Giraffe and the tracker which I think is a great tool, but wonder if it overestimates the home performance (i.e. only 8 teams in 2018-19 got 10 home wins, and underestimates the away points (only two teams got less than 10 points away from home).

It’s really interesting isn’t it. I’d like to see how the last few years ratios have compared for different teams with and without fans.

 

[Bodian]

This discussion point comes up every season and again I don't disagree, but to have a thread that was 95% certain of showing you were staying up would be misleading I think.

Last 7 seasons, points needed to stay up plus the points recorded by whoever finished 17th which shows a further level of comfort:

20-21 29 to stay up, 39 achieved by 17th (Burnley)
19-20 35 to stay up, 35 achieved by 17th (Villa)
18-19 35 to stay up, 36 achieved by 17th (Us)
17-18 34 to stay up, 36 achieved by 17th (Southampton)
16-17 35 to stay up, 40 achieved by 17th (Watford)
15-16 38 to stay up, 39 achieved by 17th (Sunderland)
14-15 36 to stay up, 38 achieved by 17th (Villa)

This is interesting isn't it - and I still think it shows how your 40 point tracker is useful. Yes, it shows that fewer than 40 points have been needed to stay up in all those seven seasons, but it also shows roughly what is expected of the the 17th place team. Just under 40 points.

Quite a few times (it seems to me) safety is achieved with a game to go, then the final games for the teams previously involved become a bit of a dead rubber. That is, if more was at stake on the final day, it may have felt/been different.

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

It’s really interesting isn’t it. I’d like to see how the last few years ratios have compared for different teams with and without fans.

Well, because as I said, I am sad, and got bored bored waiting for Zlatan to do a Maupay overhead kick goal against Liverpool (never rated him!), I decided to do a complete analysis of the last 5 seasons!
I think it makes very interesting reading (but that's just me I guess)
View attachment Home v Away Ratio 2017-2021.pdf

My take on it is that under Hughton, the Amex was our fortress (hence the staying up tracker broadly held true for the 2017-18 season at a home:away ratio of 2.64:1)
But since Potter, our away performances are now matching our home form.
And you can see the impact of Covid and no crowds in the 20/21 season with more points won away from home by more than half the teams (although Brighton's ratio is just above at 1:05:1) and only Sheffield United and Southampton gained any real advantage from playing at home.

Although there appears to be a slight recovery this season in home form, it is not back to pre-Covid levels and 6 of the top 9 including Brighton currently have better away records than home ones on points per game. I would assume that this will probably change over the course of the season.

 

[Giraffe]

This is interesting isn't it - and I still think it shows how your 40 point tracker is useful. Yes, it shows that fewer than 40 points have been needed to stay up in all those seven seasons, but it also shows roughly what is expected of the the 17th place team. Just under 40 points.

Quite a few times (it seems to me) safety is achieved with a game to go, then the final games for the teams previously involved become a bit of a dead rubber. That is, if more was at stake on the final day, it may have felt/been different.

I think what it shows is that "normally" in a Premier League season now there are 3 teams that are poor, arguably VERY poor. Quite often at least 2 of them have just come up from the championship the season or two before. Therefore the gap is bigger. My concern (not necessarily for us) would be that at the moment those clear poor 3 teams include Newcastle, who will arguably be better in the second half of the season. I therefore the points target could move up from the low 30's to late 30s and who know maybe nearer 40. It is unlikely but not out of the question.

 

[Giraffe]

Well, because as I said, I am sad, and got bored bored waiting for Zlatan to do a Maupay overhead kick goal against Liverpool (never rated him!), I decided to do a complete analysis of the last 5 seasons!
I think it makes very interesting reading (but that's just me I guess)
View attachment 142620

My take on it is that under Hughton, the Amex was our fortress (hence the staying up tracker broadly held true for the 2017-18 season at a home:away ratio of 2.64:1)
But since Potter, our away performances are now matching our home form.
And you can see the impact of Covid and no crowds in the 20/21 season with more points won away from home by more than half the teams (although Brighton's ratio is just above at 1:05:1) and only Sheffield United and Southampton gained any real advantage from playing at home.

Although there appears to be a slight recovery this season in home form, it is not back to pre-Covid levels and 6 of the top 9 including Brighton currently have better away records than home ones on points per game. I would assume that this will probably change over the course of the season.

Fantastic analysis. I've not seen anyone else do this, really very interesting and hugely supports your point. What comes out of this for me is the progress we have made away is not because our home form has dropped that much, it's just simply that we are better away from home. We genuinely compete away from home to try to win the game, rather than just hanging in the game like Hughton used to.

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

Fantastic analysis. I've not seen anyone else do this, really very interesting and hugely supports your point. What comes out of this for me is the progress we have made away is not because our home form has dropped that much, it's just simply that we are better away from home. We genuinely compete away from home to try to win the game, rather than just hanging in the game like Hughton used to.

My suggestions for a tweak to your excellent tracker would be to assume home points = 26 points ( 8 wins and 2 draws against the teams in 10th and 9th) and away points = 14 points (3 wins against promoted teams) and 8 draws against teams 17th and upwards.
Maybe something to consider for next year or as a comparator for this year if you have time

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[schmunk]

(3 wins against promoted teams)

Errrr...

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

Fantastic analysis. I've not seen anyone else do this, really very interesting and hugely supports your point. What comes out of this for me is the progress we have made away is not because our home form has dropped that much, it's just simply that we are better away from home. We genuinely compete away from home to try to win the game, rather than just hanging in the game like Hughton used to.

Sorry should have said thank you for the compliment. I actually enjoyed doing it, and as you say bears out the philosophy of Potter to try and compete in all games.
Which also explains why generally our fans at away matches have come away happier than those a few of those attending the home games. 3 or 4 recent draws away from home treated more like victories and one recent home draw treated like a defeat!

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[SeagullsoverLondon]

Errrr...

I mean on the tracker, not in reality of course, that will never happen!

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[Giraffe]

Sorry should have said thank you for the compliment. I actually enjoyed doing it, and as you say bears out the philosophy of Potter to try and compete in all games.
Which also explains why generally our fans at away matches have come away happier than those a few of those attending the home games. 3 or 4 recent draws away from home treated more like victories and one recent home draw treated like a defeat!

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Yes I think that is true. There is always more expectation to win at home and as your stats show generally, maybe that is old hat? Will be interesting to see whether that continues though in the seasons to come as I suspect it is a little bit of an overhang from the no fans season and a half and it may take longer for teams to adjust. I doubt whether home fans will accept that forever and I can see there being a greater push to get wins at home again the further we move away from the "no fans" seasons.

 

[Giraffe]

Update after this weekend's games. We remain 8th. A bad weekend for Watford and Everton.