I'd be perfectly happy to see Villa lose via ManU, win v Palace, and then lose v Everton. Being safe with 2 to play or 3 to play makes no difference really. We've got 3 winnable games to end the season given the form we've been showing, and with the way Man C have been alternating wins and losses maybe we can get a surprise result that really puts Palace under a bit of pressure.
[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE
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I'd be perfectly happy to see Villa lose via ManU, win v Palace, and then lose v Everton. Being safe with 2 to play or 3 to play makes no difference really. We've got 3 winnable games to end the season given the form we've been showing, and with the way Man C have been alternating wins and losses maybe we can get a surprise result that really puts Palace under a bit of pressure.
Tony Towner's Fridge
Well-known member
There was a little trepidation as we came out of the lockdown but now it would take a miracle of 'water into wine' proportions to see either of AFCBFC or AVFC get within three points of us, let alone overtake us...
Champers on ice yes, but to for long methinks?
Aston Villa...what a yo-yo club they are....Walsall look better..
TNBA
TTF
Champers on ice yes, but to for long methinks?
Aston Villa...what a yo-yo club they are....Walsall look better..
TNBA
TTF
Yep, home and hosed from a staying up perspective IMO. Villa need 4 results from 4 games (inc 3 wins) and Bournemouth need 3 wins from 4......and that’s ignoring Hammers and Watford. Let’s start looking at who we can catch.
I've added Palace to my tracker, as they look catchable in their current form (they're at the bottom of the form table if set to cover only the full rounds since restart, with 4 losses). Also updated with last night's results, and now we've got those 4 full rounds completed since restart I'm now using only "since restart" form tables to set my predictions.
Unfortunately my prediction method is suggesting we won't get the points we need to catch Palace. But I strongly suspect and hope that my method is way too pessimistic. I'm confident we'll get more than 1 point from our remaining fixtures. I think 4 is the bare minimum to be considered "acceptable", 5 or 6 would be "par", and anything more than that would be a strong finish. I don't think we will catch Palace unless we hatch a surprise against Man C, and Palace somehow manage to end the season without any more wins.
Unfortunately my prediction method is suggesting we won't get the points we need to catch Palace. But I strongly suspect and hope that my method is way too pessimistic. I'm confident we'll get more than 1 point from our remaining fixtures. I think 4 is the bare minimum to be considered "acceptable", 5 or 6 would be "par", and anything more than that would be a strong finish. I don't think we will catch Palace unless we hatch a surprise against Man C, and Palace somehow manage to end the season without any more wins.
pasty
A different kind of pasty
If catching Palace means they have to lose to Villa on Sunday, I'd rather not catch them.
Thompson720
Well-known member
Agreed. It's not like they've pasted us in terms of performances or position in the table anyway. Quietly hoping for a positive result against Villa
Come on Villa! They are not going to finish above us, but we have a good chance of finishing above Palace if Villa beat them.
#looking up
The last thing we need is Villa getting any momentum ( unless we beat Man City, then
cos they won't overhaul our GD).The last thing we need is Villa getting any momentum ( unless we beat Man City, then
So, you really think Villa are going to beat Palace, Everton, West Ham and draw with Arsenal? Also, you think we won’t get anymore points?
That’s what it will take for them to finish above us.
Even IF that happened, West Ham and Watford still have to finish above us and that’s unlikely to happen as well.
We are staying up, just enjoy it and look to finish above Palace.
A Villa v Palace DRAW wouldn't be the worst result in the world, would it?
No I don't think that, but it is still losses all the way for Villa and the rest as far as I am concerned - until we cross the line and can belatedly start focusing on the prize of next PL season.
No. No it wouldn't.
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 10,978
100% this!
To overtake us Villa will need to beat Palace/WestHam/Everton and draw with Arsenal.
That is assuming we don't get another point. If we do then they have to beat Arsenal too.
If Villa were to achieve that, we would need to pick up 2 more points to mean that West Ham would need to win their other games including United to finish above us.
If that happened, then either:
Watford would have to beat Newcastle\City\Arsenal
Or Muff would need to beat Leicester/Everton/Southampton/City
to see us relegated.
It's not mathematically safe of course, but you are looking at 3 teams going on spectacular runs to see us fall.
No way I'm cheering on Palace with the odds stacked so heavily in our favour.
A draw would be ok, but I would begrudge Palace making ground on us.
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 10,978
Much more succinctly put than my rambling post.
While our survival isn't quite assured as yet, it will be very soon. For us to get relegated requires 3 out of the 4 teams that can still pass us, to pass us. With West Ham playing 2 of those 4 teams in the remaining fixtures, our safety is going to be confirmed pretty quickly I think. At the moment (pending which Man C team turns up) our goal difference is effectively an extra point. Even if we lose all our remaining games, Villa are currently 9 points back. They'll need to win 3 and draw 1, and that's an equation that means West Ham only get at best a draw in their final game. Bournemouth need 3 wins, and the easiest game they have left based on form since restart is Leicester (12th on the form table in the last 4).
It's going to take a significant turn around in fortunes for us to be at any risk of going down. As such, now is the time to look up. It's a stretch, but 14th is possible. It takes a lot of results to go our way (and the next round could see that possibility vanish). I do think, though, that at least for this next round we should look up, not down. Snatch a result v City, then we don't care if Villa get a result v Palace - especially if Bournemouth, Watford, and West Ham all lose (that last unlikely I think).
It's going to take a significant turn around in fortunes for us to be at any risk of going down. As such, now is the time to look up. It's a stretch, but 14th is possible. It takes a lot of results to go our way (and the next round could see that possibility vanish). I do think, though, that at least for this next round we should look up, not down. Snatch a result v City, then we don't care if Villa get a result v Palace - especially if Bournemouth, Watford, and West Ham all lose (that last unlikely I think).
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 10,978
Nah.
Our safety is in our own hands.
You only need to take a look at the bottom 5 remaining fixtures to realise we are probably already safe.
3 pts from our final 4 will see us clear of, an incredibly unlikely set of results from the others.
I have heard enough of Palace's "excellent" season.
I don't want them crowing that we relied on them to beat Muff and Villa to keep us up.
Why not? If we catch Palace, as things stand, we would get to 42 points (we have to, there's no other way to catch them). Villa's current maximum points total is 39, Bournemouth's is 40. Even if catching Palace gave villa a win and momentum, and they were somehow granted 4 extra points (goal difference would put us above them if they get 3 points) their place below us would have been taken by palace.
0-0 is my guess.
pasty
A different kind of pasty
You want Palace to go 9 points above us and effectively end any hopes of us finishing 14th, winning the extra prize money and gaining bragging rights because of a very small chance that 4 teams will win enough games to finish above us?
We don’t need Villa to lose all their games, we need them to lose ONE and I really don’t want Palace to be the team that does it. Therefor, 1 win for them doesn’t effect us in terms of relegation.
Imagine how Palace will feel with 5 losses in a row after to losing to Villa when they were going on about getting their highest ever PL finish a few months ago, only to then lose the rest of their games and finish below us.
I’d say that was more possible than us going down.
We shouldn’t be relying on the teams below us to lose in order for us to stay up (especially with the position we are in) we just need to win, we do that, then it really won’t make a difference to us staying up.
Come on Villa!
(ugh)
(I still hope they go down)