[Albion] To Avoid Hürzeler Bashing - The Staying Up and Europe Tracker - season 2024-25 Game 37 Update

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Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
18,607
Fiveways
I think it’s the erratic nature of the season. At the turn of the year and the start of spring we were a different team to what we’ve witnessed last night. It didn’t look pretty.
Might we just have had a long list of injuries at that point (along with other periods of the season) and this coincided with our downturn in form? And, on the other side, our good runs have come when there's good availability?
 




Hamilton

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Jul 7, 2003
13,522
Brighton
Might we just have had a long list of injuries at that point (along with other periods of the season) and this coincided with our downturn in form? And, on the other side, our good runs have come when there's good availability?
Don’t know. Either way, I’m kind of pleased he has survived and look forward to what he can do with a fit squad next season.
 


Giraffe

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Aug 8, 2005
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The European tracker says we finish 8th and Chelsea 6th over Villa 7th on goal difference. But that assumes Villa can't beat Man Utd.

Chelsea are the second most successfully predicted team in the European tracker (after Man City), and the tracker says a draw. But it only predicts 51% of their results correctly, so they could well lose 😃 .Whereas the tracker has only predicted 38% of Villa's results correctly and it says they will draw with Man Utd so they'll probably win.

It's happening. :wink:

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marcos3263

Well-known member
Oct 29, 2009
975
Fishersgate and Proud
So we are 18 points above relegation and are staying up and 1 point off Europe currently with all the maths needed to get us there we may fall just short....
Its almost like Giraffe knows whats he's doing with these annual trackers.

great thread as always. I hope one day it will be tweaked to be Champions league and Champions tracker.......
 




Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
16,754
Cumbria
So it's looking like 26-29 points would have been enough for safety. We reached that after game 20/21. If Leicester don't beat Bournemouth, then we were safe before the end of 2024, and possibly before the midway stage. Astonishing. But also a bit sad that the bottom three were so out of their depth.
 


A1X

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Sep 1, 2017
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Deepest, darkest Sussex
It's going to be a topsy turvy tracker next season, with us expecting to get 4 points each from them...
I’m much more confident of us picking up 4 points from both Man Utd and Spurs than Leeds and Burnley. Especially if they both get good again.
 


SeagullsoverLondon

......
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Jun 20, 2021
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So we are 18 points above relegation and are staying up and 1 point off Europe currently with all the maths needed to get us there we may fall just short....
Its almost like Giraffe knows whats he's doing with these annual trackers.

great thread as always. I hope one day it will be tweaked to be Champions league and Champions tracker.......
The only problem is in reality, as opposed to the tracker, we are currently 33 points and 49 goals above relegation and 7 points and 9 goals off Europe at the current moment, with one game to play. (Caveat: I know Europe is still achievable...)

Agree it is a useful guide as to what we need from each game. Maybe it should be adjustable after half distance to re-evaluate which games we should be getting 3 points or a draw from based upon current league table, rather than the previous season's positions.
 




Badger

NOT the Honey Badger
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May 8, 2007
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Toronto
So it's looking like 26-29 points would have been enough for safety. We reached that after game 20/21. If Leicester don't beat Bournemouth, then we were safe before the end of 2024, and possibly before the midway stage. Astonishing. But also a bit sad that the bottom three were so out of their depth.

And we avoided finishing bottom after only EIGHT games.
 




Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo

I believe in Joe Hendry
Oct 4, 2003
12,844
So it's looking like 26-29 points would have been enough for safety. We reached that after game 20/21. If Leicester don't beat Bournemouth, then we were safe before the end of 2024, and possibly before the midway stage. Astonishing. But also a bit sad that the bottom three were so out of their depth.

Last season we got our 27th point (Luton got 26 points) in our 18th game.

If Leicester don’t pick up a point in their final game we’d have been safe after 19 games this season (which was the Villa game on December 30th).
 




Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
16,754
Cumbria
Last season we got our 27th point (Luton got 26 points) in our 18th game.

If Leicester don’t pick up a point in their final game we’d have been safe after 19 games this season (which was the Villa game on December 30th).
Leicester are on 25, so if they don't pick up a point we'd have been safe the game before - our 18th, Brentford, took us to 26.

So, two seasons in a row where we were effectively safe by the half-way stage. We really are a PL established club now.
 


Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo

I believe in Joe Hendry
Oct 4, 2003
12,844
Leicester are on 25, so if they don't pick up a point we'd have been safe the game before - our 18th, Brentford, took us to 26.

So, two seasons in a row where we were effectively safe by the half-way stage. We really are a PL established club now.

You are correct I don’t know why I thought Leicester were on 26 points, I was giving them some undeserved credit 🤣
 








chaileyjem

#BarberIn
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Jun 27, 2012
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Did Palace enter the top 10 at any point this season?
No. Since Palace were promoted in 2013/14 they've finished between 10th and 15th every season since then.
This season they will definitely finish no higher than 10th. FWIW and i know its a tiny comfort - we've now finished higher than them for the last 3 seasons out of 4.
 


Giraffe

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Aug 8, 2005
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@Giraffe - if we actually BEAT the Europe tracker points wise but fail to qualify, would that make you rethink what the points target on the Europe track should be?
It’s a good question. The 60 mark was decided on the basis of an average of what would get you Europe but clearly some seasons are going to be outliers to that.

Will take others view but I tend to edge to the if it’s not broke don’t fix it, and I’m not sure it’s that broke.

Odds are still on us finishing short of 60 and missing out on Europe and potentially finishing over 60 and getting Europe so it’s still pretty close.
 


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