This time last season

[KingKev]

I looked at it slightly differently and compared this season vs the actual fixtures last season - matching the 6 teams that are new to the division with those that left, i.e. Newcastle = Burnley, Norwich = Boro, villa = hull, Barnsley-Bolton, Burton-MK, Wigan-Charlton.
I have us currently 2 points ahead of last season (+3 at home, -1 away. Although that would be -1 if you made Norwich= Hull and Villa-Boro). So very similar so far.
If you look at how the fixtures break then we got 50 (yes 50) points last year in the fixtures that equate to this season's first half and "only" 39 in the second half.
I would be over the moon with 50 points at the halfway stage....here's dreaming..

 

[CheeseRolls]

So having played 16 where we were

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2015-11-07 GD+9 Points 34, position 2nd

Where we are

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table GD+16 Points 34, position 2nd

The Experimental 361 model shows a significant shift in the likelyhood of us finishing top 2 as follows;

Which makes sense, given we missed out on GD last season, so by being ahead of ourselves and lacking a clear challenger, right now we are on target.

Next up Villa, the model says they have next to no chance of catching us.

Looks like a 1% chance of finishing in the top 2.

Of course for the cynics and Goveists amongst you, who just don't like experts, please bear in mind that the model whilst clever, in that it uses every teams attacking and defending potential to predict final outcomes, it is not perfect. It can not predict the impact of managerial changes, January signings, key players injured/returning from injury.

For the glass half full types Brighton's defence is second to none, there is real resilience in a team that can look so comfortable away from home, defeating one of the top sides, with arguably our two most influential players absent. The message for the January transfer window is written loud and clear. Hang on to key players and strengthen our attacking options.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Of course for the cynics and Goveists amongst you, who just don't like experts, please bear in mind that the model whilst clever, in that it uses every teams attacking and defending potential to predict final outcomes, it is not perfect. It can not predict the impact of managerial changes, January signings, key players injured/returning from injury.

The cynics and Goveists might just think the model therefore assumes away all the likely variables. Basically it is saying that if you continue like you are, this is what will probably happen.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Game 17
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2015-11-22 GD+9 Points 35 Position 2nd
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table GD+16 Points 35 Position 2nd

Are we keeping up?
Also of note we had three teams just 2 points behind us in 2nd at this point in the season. This year no one has really put together a consistent run, although there are a few threatening to get there act together.

 

[Rogero]

Reading are on the up.

 

[Postman Pat]

Reading are on the up.

Not had the most challenging run of opponents...
Burton, Wigan, Forest, Rotherham....

 

[chaileyjem]

Game 17
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2015-11-22 GD+9 Points 35 Position 2nd
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table GD+16 Points 35 Position 2nd

Are we keeping up?
Also of note we had three teams just 2 points behind us in 2nd at this point in the season. This year no one has really put together a consistent run, although there are a few threatening to get there act together.

In 2015/16 we were about to enter a bloc of 10 games where we won just 2 lasting until mid January when we beat Blackburn Rovers away in the Snow.

 

[CheeseRolls]

In 2015/16 we were about to enter a bloc of 10 games where we won just 2 lasting until mid January when we beat Blackburn Rovers away in the Snow.

We are not quite there yet Jem! Don't peak too soon.

 

[ewe2]

Last season,the January window was inspired .....

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

The pace Newcastle and Brighton have set has definitely meant those in the chasing pack have struggled to stay in touch.

And perhaps in the last few games we're seeing a changing of the guard (8 wins in the last 20 games for the teams in playoff spots and half of those from Reading - and 11 defeats between them) and a few sides finding their feet (Reading, Derby, Villa) but most of those well off the pace.

Villa was a great result for us given how well they played and how they nullified our strengths. Next game will tel us if we're about to enter a phase like last year (lots of draws and dropped points) and if the team that slaughtered Norwich and easily handled Brizzle is the real BHAFC.

 

[BensGrandad]

Need to get back to winning ways against Fulham to show we mean business and to slow them down.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Any excuse to reproduce my favourite graph. Interesting that one home draw and our Top 2 likelyhood has slipped from 78% to 72%.

Who are the emerging threats according to this model? Sheff Wednesday and Derby!

We have been punished for only drawing at home to lowly Villa, whereas a comfortable home Derby win and a draw for Wednesday at play off contenders Fulham, sees improvements in both their prospects.

Reading's run of straight wins has not really impressed the model, as some on here commented they have had an easy run of games. Norwich despite four straight defeats have yet to be written off as promotion contenders.

 

[Badger]

View attachment 79614

Any excuse to reproduce my favourite graph. Interesting that one home draw and our Top 2 likelyhood has slipped from 78% to 72%.

Who are the emerging threats according to this model? Sheff Wednesday and Derby!

We have been punished for only drawing at home to lowly Villa, whereas a comfortable home Derby win and a draw for Wednesday at play off contenders Fulham, sees improvements in both their prospects.

Reading's run of straight wins has not really impressed the model, as some on here commented they have had an easy run of games. Norwich despite four straight defeats have yet to be written off as promotion contenders.

It's looking good for Rotherham

 

[CheeseRolls]

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2015-11-22 P18 38 +10 and top of the league!
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table P18 38 +17 and only good enough for second place!

All of the 7 goal difference is down to improved defending, as we have exactly the same number of goals as this point last season

 

[CheeseRolls]

This week's graph



Really reflects the Newcastle wobble and this isn't going to be popular with Reading (snigger!), who are still being rated below free-falling Norwich.
I do like the top three threats to us, all being teams we have already played away.

 

[Peter Grummit]

This week's graph

View attachment 79791

Really reflects the Newcastle wobble and this isn't going to be popular with Reading (snigger!), who are still being rated below free-falling Norwich.
I do like the top three threats to us, all being teams we have already played away.

We played Huddersfield at home.

PG

 

[CheeseRolls]

We played Huddersfield at home.

PG

True - but you think Newcastle are uncatchable? because I don't

 

[Rugrat]

Really reflects the Newcastle wobble and this isn't going to be popular with Reading (snigger!), who are still being rated below free-falling Norwich.
I do like the top three threats to us, all being teams we have already played away.

Really can't see Hudders featuring

 

[CheeseRolls]

Really can't see Hudders featuring

Newcastle, Sheffield Wednesday (lol) and Derby

 

[CheeseRolls]

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2015-12-06 P19 41 +11 Top
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table P19 39 +17 Second

Interesting set of results really. Okay we have fallen behind last year's benchmark, but I am sure just about everyone remembers what happened next. The Newcastle loss should have been music to our ears, consecutive losses against teams that can easily be dismissed as rivals, but interestingly the gap between top and seventh is tighter than it was at this point last season.

This doesn't make for good reading and suggests we are not creating enough good chances.



Next up resurgent Leeds, we could really do with a Knockaert revival.