This does not look good

[Triggaaar]

stats like this mean nothing........its like saying a red has not come out on a roulette wheel 10 times in a row and it means something for roll 11.........absolute nonsense......

idiocy.

Agreed.

Nearly ten years since we beat Blackpool in the league at home.
Twenty two years since we beat Middlesborough in the league.
Twenty eight years since we beat Middlesborough away in the league.
Twenty four years since we beat Palarse at home in the league.
The only other team to beat Cardiff at theirs this season, the other was Peterborough!

So I would suggest that we have been pretty good at bucking the trend this season!

Indeed, those are good examples of what nonsense some stats can be.

It kind of makes sense.... 3rd are more likely to win as they are the third best team in the league over the season. The other type of team that wins the playoffs are the ones that made a late surge, these teams are more likely to have sneaked in at 5th or 6th at the last minute... leaving 4th as usually not quite as good as 3rd, and not having the form of 5th/6th. The difference this season is we're the 4th best team, we have been on top of the table since January form wise and 3rd place really haven't got form(assuming it's going to be Hull). BRING ON THE PREMIER LEAGUE

I agree with the last part. Teams that have a late surge might not finish 5th / 6th. We've been in as good a form as anyone, last season the late surge was Reading (who finished 1st, not 5th/6th).

That stat is just a very small sample of data. Post the stat for all 3 divisions since the playoffs started, and if that shows 4th hardly ever gets promoted then I'll start to at least look at it.

 

[Dr. Notthenineo'clocknews]

buck the trend?......f**k the trend!

 

[Diego Napier]

stats like this mean nothing........its like saying a red has not come out on a roulette wheel 10 times in a row and it means something for roll 11.........absolute nonsense......

idiocy.

Don't for heaven sake get in the way of some down-at-the-mouth who wants to rain on our parade!

 

[Soulman]

May the 4th be with you...........

 

[Cheshire]

does santa or the tooth fairy have any theories on it too?

A asked them. Santa can only influences games around Christmas and the tooth fairy said she would leave a £1 under the pillow if we win.

As for the Easter Bunny Braders, as you will know he is still far too sick from all that Chocolate - to be able to make any sensible comment!

 

[hybrid_x]

Nobody is asking you to agree, stats are there for a reason. Nobody has said that Brighton can not win, or that anyone is hindered. If Brighton win then the stat will change, if they do not then it will be 13 years. Stats are used to predict the the likely outcome, not make it

but u could find a stat that says when we have more throw ins from the left side in the first ten minutes - we win games, especially if our goalie kicks out to the right side in the 40th minute....stats, yes, meaningless, yes.

 

[TWO TRIBES]

Nearly ten years since we beat Blackpool in the league at home.
Twenty two years since we beat Middlesborough in the league.
Twenty eight years since we beat Middlesborough away in the league.
Twenty four years since we beat Palarse at home in the league.
The only other team to beat Cardiff at theirs this season, the other was Peterborough!

So I would suggest that we have been pretty good at bucking the trend this season!

Lets hope we `trend bucking`win the semi... then bucking win the final and then we will be in the bucking premier league

 

[Jim D]

Here's another way of looking at stats - what positions were the teams that got to Wembley (or the Millennium stadium) and how many wins did they have. Since 1990 these are the stats....

P3 12 appearances with 10 wins
P4 11 appearances with 2 wins
P5 12 appearances with 6 wins
P6 11 appearances with 5 wins

So we need teams finishing 4th and 6th to contest this years final to even things up......

 

[um bongo molongo]

But in a pure statistical sense 4 numbers have an equal chance of winning and as 4th has not won the probability that it will win soon is higher than the other 3. However as you say this is not a clean experiment and with humans involved anything can happen so who knows, but I do have a good feeling its our year (based on nothing more than a hunch).

Assuming all four were equal (which they aren't) that's a misunderstanding of statistical probability. Every time you toss a coin it's a 50/50 chance, even if the last 50 tosses have all come down heads, it's still only a 50% chance the next one will be tails. From a form perspective, if Watford finish third you'd have to say they're favourites, if its Hull then I'd guess we'd be bookie favourites...(but only just)

 

[Mowgli37]

Nearly ten years since we beat Blackpool in the league at home.
Twenty two years since we beat Middlesborough in the league.
Twenty eight years since we beat Middlesborough away in the league.
Twenty four years since we beat Palarse at home in the league.
The only other team to beat Cardiff at theirs this season, the other was Peterborough!

So I would suggest that we have been pretty good at bucking the trend this season!

I'm in good spirits now!

 

[Goldstone Rapper]

Assuming all four were equal (which they aren't) that's a misunderstanding of statistical probability. Every time you toss a coin it's a 50/50 chance, even if the last 50 tosses have all come down heads, it's still only a 50% chance the next one will be tails. From a form perspective, if Watford finish third you'd have to say they're favourites, if its Hull then I'd guess we'd be bookie favourites...(but only just)

This. It's like people think coins have memories of previous throws!

 

[Goldstone Rapper]

We have truly bucked the trend of five relegations in the last six times the year has ended in a '3.'

 

[Goldstone Rapper]

Three words - law of averages!

Law of averages - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia