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The daily 'points required' thread....
- Thread starter Psychobilly freakout
- Start date
Peter Grummit
Well-known member
We all hope that!
What the graphic I posted shows is that we could drop 5 points compared with our form over the first 20 games, and still have 92 points which most agree would guarantee Top 2. Personally, I think 90 will be enough this year.
PG
nwgull
Well-known member
As many as 90?! I really can't see any team other than Newcastle or us getting more than 85 points from where we are now.
Peter Grummit
Well-known member
I don't disagree. But to be clear, I think 90 points will be enough to guarantee top 2.
kingcole
Well-known member
Loving that there is still a bit of relegation red by Leeds.
Fantastic chart btw
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,092
Burnley got to 90pts last year from P20 Pts 35 GD +7...
Derby are currently P20 Pts 32 GD +7...
Perfectly feasible they could get to 90pts this year.
I reckon we need 88 plus or minus one or two...!
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,092
My favourite bit is the almost invisible amount for Villa to be top 2. Jars with my instinct based on them being one of the strongest teams seen at The Amex - but I suppose they are a long way behind so I'll believe it to be true.
Dolph Ins
Well-known member
Blimey that is mental. Derby still have a 1% chance of relegation and we are only 1% less likely than the Toons to go up. We also appear to have less chance of missing out on the playoffs than the Toon. How come we are still under the radar?
Psychobilly freakout
HellBilly
- Thread starter
- #29
We are still on track for a win-at-home-draw-away 92 point finish.
50 points to go from the 26 games.
The countdown has started
I think you will find it's now 47 points from 25 games to go....
Mellor 3 Ward 4
Well-known member
Glass half empty
Mellor 3 Ward 4
Well-known member
Although...............A Brighton win and a Reading defeat tomorrow night would put us 8 points clear of second
Glass half full.
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
OMG, fame at last...! Well, let me say to all my fans out there how happy and proud I am that a thread has been started all for me. I think it only right and proper in this proud moment that others take the stage.
T soprano
New member
Still sticking to my start of season prediction of 101 points
How has the chart been calculated / derived?
Anyhow it does all look good - hope our blip isn't too bad
Anyhow it does all look good - hope our blip isn't too bad
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
The mean is possibly not the best measure statistically as it is weighted by the odd season when Hull came 2nd with 79. The median is arguably better, which is 88.5, not that it makes much difference..... For the record, in reverse order the 2nd place points for last 6 are: 89, 89,93,79,88,84.
Now can we get on to whether the 2nd place points is the correct way to look at it, or whether you just need one more than the 3rd place team? Where's Trigaar?
The_Viper
Well-known member
14 more wins does it, imo.
Not really 45pts from 21 games = 2.14pts per game x 46 = 98 pts, and I think we'd be safe with that
FatSuperman
Well-known member
- Feb 25, 2016
- 2,830
Probably due to having 'tougher' fixtures left as opposed to us, I guess it makes a difference over several thousand iterations.
FatSuperman
Well-known member
- Feb 25, 2016
- 2,830
It's based on the 'expected goals rating' that the author uses for his modelling. He explains it on his site but in brief, it is a combination of the quantity, type and quality of shots a team tends to take, and how often those types of shots tends to go in, in general. So it's prioritising 1-on-1 attempts against the keeper much more than 30 yard speculative shots, penalties have the highest expected goal rating, but if your team has a lot of it's goals from penalties (like Reading) then actually the model will assume that can't be sustainable. All of that is aligned against the number of shots that opponents tend to get against your team and how often they score those shots, plus the type of shots, etc etc. Ultimately he ends with a rating for attack and defence and then a blended rating, which he calls the 'e rating'.
The chart is then created by running thousands of match simulations for each team (some sort of monte carlo simulation I guess, if that means anything to you), against their remaining opponents and then plotting the results out to form a 'possible' set of results for every single match. 90% of the time we get top two, according to the latest. It changes of course, but if you go back and look at last year it was much tighter at the top and he wasn't far off.
I like his charts showing attacking and defensive strength - Derby were hilarious after 8 or 9 games. I think they needed around a trillion shots for every goal - he was reporting though that they would come good, as over the course of a season, that many consistent shots are going to start coming good. Conversely, he's been saying that our attacking threat has been dipping quite worryingly as we hasn't been getting many quality chances off, although we were still winning so the difference was just a bit of clinical finishing saving us.
FatSuperman
Well-known member
- Feb 25, 2016
- 2,830
Glass has room for more beer.