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[Finance] The cryptocurrency (Bitcoin etc) thread



Marshy

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
19,740
FRUIT OF THE BLOOM
It is starting to feel like an echo chamber on this thread. I would like to keep the conversation going. What is apparent is that there is not one right way to get ahead, but you do need a strategy. Here is mine, I hope a few others will also share.

This is what my current holdings look like.
View attachment 143009

My aim is to have around half a dozen top coins, in which I have built up a holding. I am typically looking for coins I can stake and get a return on now or in the near future. Once I have built up a surplus over and above my desired bag size, I will then sell these off, hopefully when the market price looks attractive. I am not looking to cash out in the short term, so I will move funds towards UST. Right now I prefer to hold UST in a liquidity pair with Anchor, rather than to stake and get the excellent savings rate, but over time this may change. I am not looking to cash out anything for at least another 12 months, so quite a patient approach. The biggest risk in this approach is a large prolonged market dip. For example all my Luna is staked with a 21 day unlock. this means I have not sold any despite the new all time high.

How much research did you put in before buying your selections ?.

Quant and Hbar are great choices :)
 




CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 27, 2009
6,005
Shoreham Beach
How much research did you put in before buying your selections ?.

Quant and Hbar are great choices :)

Obsessive amounts, but it isn't always methodical. In the last 9 months I have bought and sold more cryptos than I hold. There are around 10 twitter accounts I pay attention to and I watch all the hashtags for stuff I am interested in. If this matches the sort of thing I am interested in I look at the website, team, token splits, medium, telegram youtube and sometimes github. It helps if someone else has already done all this digging and shared it. I then buy some and stake it. I have passed on some really good stuff here, simply because I couldn't get along with the staking, these include polkadot, curve and unizen. This week I have spent hours messing around trying to move Rose tokens onto a Ledger Nano. I got there in the end, but if I had shown the same patience I would still be holding some of the others.

The two you have picked out are exceptions in my portfolio, in that I don't stake them. Hbar was the first alt coin I bought and it trebled in price within three weeks, before sinking back, which was a hard lesson. The Hedera consensus service is too easily overlooked. I think it will be a critical part of the global economy for many years to come. I have reduced my holding, because I am not convinced they really want or value small investors, we will see. The only thing that would put me off Quant was if the UK government started taking credit for this British success story. Thus far their wilful ignorance has been the best possible "support" they could have provided.

I have one complete punt, which should rank alongside horse racing tips in my portfolio. This is Obertech, a Mongolian/Estonian logistics supply chain solution. In all likelihood you won't ever hear this mentioned again, however if it does well, I will be back here to let everyone know.
 


Marshy

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
19,740
FRUIT OF THE BLOOM
Obsessive amounts, but it isn't always methodical. In the last 9 months I have bought and sold more cryptos than I hold. There are around 10 twitter accounts I pay attention to and I watch all the hashtags for stuff I am interested in. If this matches the sort of thing I am interested in I look at the website, team, token splits, medium, telegram youtube and sometimes github. It helps if someone else has already done all this digging and shared it. I then buy some and stake it. I have passed on some really good stuff here, simply because I couldn't get along with the staking, these include polkadot, curve and unizen. This week I have spent hours messing around trying to move Rose tokens onto a Ledger Nano. I got there in the end, but if I had shown the same patience I would still be holding some of the others.

The two you have picked out are exceptions in my portfolio, in that I don't stake them. Hbar was the first alt coin I bought and it trebled in price within three weeks, before sinking back, which was a hard lesson. The Hedera consensus service is too easily overlooked. I think it will be a critical part of the global economy for many years to come. I have reduced my holding, because I am not convinced they really want or value small investors, we will see. The only thing that would put me off Quant was if the UK government started taking credit for this British success story. Thus far their wilful ignorance has been the best possible "support" they could have provided.

I have one complete punt, which should rank alongside horse racing tips in my portfolio. This is Obertech, a Mongolian/Estonian logistics supply chain solution. In all likelihood you won't ever hear this mentioned again, however if it does well, I will be back here to let everyone know.

I wont be selling my Quant... its going to be heavily involved going forward. Starting with the digital pound.

My cash is already locked up in 4 Alts, if I had any spare I would get into Hbar as the 5th.

I also spend a lot of time researching. I actually enjoy it a lot.

I never trade, just HODL.

Good luck
 


im really keen to get into some of the low caps and have noticed 2 patterns which im not currently benefitting from:
1) Before coming mainstream, popular ones can go up x1000%+ if you are lucky to pick the right ones
2) Once there is a launch on Coinbase or Kraken etc there is an initial pump of about another 50% followed by an equal dump before it starts going back up in line with other coins.

Now, where i need help is how to get the other coins. I am way of unexpected fees wiping out most of my fiat balance and the number of steps involved. So far i have installed
-Terrastation which i was going to use for LUNA and UST deposits but the fiat deposits have like a 6% spread. I see they support Binance but i dont know how to deposit money now into Binance again without heavy fees (not paying £200 to deposit/withdraw 10k by debit card)

-Matamask for ERC20 tokens .I own ETH on Kraken and was hoping to get into some other projects where i can stake my ETH in return for new tokens but dont know which ones are safe and also im hearing that you execute an transaction which can cost anything from $40 to >$200 and you dont know the fee until you execute it which is scary as hell!
- Solflare for Solana - I only installed that initially as i entered a competition to win some free SOL . I do own SOL already on Kraken but an wary of transfering in/out when the process seems both complex and risky

So...is there a solution / site to address all these or will i need multiple sites? Im happy to tie up some of my cryptos (ETH, SOL, DOT, ANT, MANA, MATIC, SAND, ENJIN, LOOPRING) to earn rewards or tokens is the risk / reward is there?
Anyone willing to share info on the above (Not financial advice so no comeback!!)
 


I started using Binance but when the UK banks went all grumpy earlier in the year and stopped people putting any cash in or out I gave up with them, I might re-visit Binance again in the new year as you quite rightly say Coinbase is a bit limited.

From what i can find out if you only have a UK bank account for Binance the only option you have is to use Visa Debit card but they charge a flat 2% fee regardless if you deposit £100 or £10k and i refuse to pay £200 for a transaction which i know (and i told them as much) costs them a maximum of 15p regardless of amount. If you are l8ucky enough to hold a Euro denominated account then you should be able to do free deposits but of course you would still pay the initial FX fee when transferring money from a GBP account to an EUR account and on top of that you would pay a fixed SWIFT transfer fee so realistically anything under 5k isnt cost effective to go down that route.
 




CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 27, 2009
6,005
Shoreham Beach
im really keen to get into some of the low caps and have noticed 2 patterns which im not currently benefitting from:
1) Before coming mainstream, popular ones can go up x1000%+ if you are lucky to pick the right ones
2) Once there is a launch on Coinbase or Kraken etc there is an initial pump of about another 50% followed by an equal dump before it starts going back up in line with other coins.

Now, where i need help is how to get the other coins. I am way of unexpected fees wiping out most of my fiat balance and the number of steps involved. So far i have installed
-Terrastation which i was going to use for LUNA and UST deposits but the fiat deposits have like a 6% spread. I see they support Binance but i dont know how to deposit money now into Binance again without heavy fees (not paying £200 to deposit/withdraw 10k by debit card)

-Matamask for ERC20 tokens .I own ETH on Kraken and was hoping to get into some other projects where i can stake my ETH in return for new tokens but dont know which ones are safe and also im hearing that you execute an transaction which can cost anything from $40 to >$200 and you dont know the fee until you execute it which is scary as hell!
- Solflare for Solana - I only installed that initially as i entered a competition to win some free SOL . I do own SOL already on Kraken but an wary of transfering in/out when the process seems both complex and risky

So...is there a solution / site to address all these or will i need multiple sites? Im happy to tie up some of my cryptos (ETH, SOL, DOT, ANT, MANA, MATIC, SAND, ENJIN, LOOPRING) to earn rewards or tokens is the risk / reward is there?
Anyone willing to share info on the above (Not financial advice so no comeback!!)

How early do you want to get in? Try researching IDOs and ICOs (Initial Dex Offerings) and (Initial Coin Offerings). There are telegram groups in particular that follow these and share intel on subjects of interest. Many launches are now going to great lengths to stop huge pump and dump launches, as they are bad for long term growth. You mentioned Terra Network, If you have a look at Pylon Protocol https://gateway.pylonprotocol.com/ you will see how new token launches are offered on the Terra network.

If you want early exchange listings probit, mexc and gate.io all tend to list much earlier than the main exchanges.
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,358
im really keen to get into some of the low caps and have noticed 2 patterns which im not currently benefitting from:

understand that only a very few people are benefitting from those patterens. x1000 are utter garbage project that get uber pumped and dumped, save one or two that stay up. you only get in by luck, knowing things getting released and hit rate is very low. there are/were many in the 50-100x range, you still take a loss or moderate gain on 10 or 15 for every pumper. i have a loooong list of worthless tokens from the past 3 years, to hit the good stuff.

if you do follow this path, first learn that its Metamask, and look for things new on BSC chain and others, so you can dabble without the fees. keep it small and expect to get dumped on or rugged. small caps means next to no reputation, investment or other costs for the devs, some projects have rugged for mere 6 figures.
 








sydney

tinky ****in winky
Jul 11, 2003
17,772
town full of eejits
struggling to grasp the losses across major tokens over the last month .....is it purely down to bad press from china and india ...? with bitcoin mining due to halve again anyway in feb i knew a dump was expected but it appears to have hit unexpectedly early.
 


Marshy

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
19,740
FRUIT OF THE BLOOM
struggling to grasp the losses across major tokens over the last month .....is it purely down to bad press from china and india ...? with bitcoin mining due to halve again anyway in feb i knew a dump was expected but it appears to have hit unexpectedly early.

End of year tax avoidance, expect a big bounce early in new year.

Bitcoin will rally then dump... get in your alt coins
 




pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,350
struggling to grasp the losses across major tokens over the last month .....is it purely down to bad press from china and india ...? with bitcoin mining due to halve again anyway in feb i knew a dump was expected but it appears to have hit unexpectedly early.

The next halving is ~March 2024, not next year.

One factor which probably is affecting the drop off is the China ban on BTC, which comes into affect on the 1st Jan. I'm not sure of the exact details of the ban, but I have seen data that indicates a lot of selling from China/the Asian region. I think holders and/or exchanges are being forced to sell.
 


CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 27, 2009
6,005
Shoreham Beach
struggling to grasp the losses across major tokens over the last month .....is it purely down to bad press from china and india ...? with bitcoin mining due to halve again anyway in feb i knew a dump was expected but it appears to have hit unexpectedly early.

Don't underestimate the impact of omicron. If we start to see some better news particularly from the USA, we will likely see a market reaction.
 


sydney

tinky ****in winky
Jul 11, 2003
17,772
town full of eejits
End of year tax avoidance, expect a big bounce early in new year.

Bitcoin will rally then dump... get in your alt coins

The next halving is ~March 2024, not next year.

One factor which probably is affecting the drop off is the China ban on BTC, which comes into affect on the 1st Jan. I'm not sure of the exact details of the ban, but I have seen data that indicates a lot of selling from China/the Asian region. I think holders and/or exchanges are being forced to sell.

Don't underestimate the impact of omicron. If we start to see some better news particularly from the USA, we will likely see a market reaction.

all input gratefully received , i was a smug ****er 6 weeks ago but am now 50% down across my wallets ....live and learn ...:shrug:
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,358
thought i'd share my 2022 thesis. read Ansem's newsletter and the Adam Cochran mega-thread on twitter for some better, right curve thinking.

2022 will not see widespread 10-20x pumps like 2021, will need to be far more selective and nimble. the whole market is likely to trade sideways, with BTC 50/50 to go fall to ~30k or up to ~100k, many looking at 40-70k as the range. everything could nuke 50-75 on that downside, and many wont come back. meanwhile the best tokens from 2021 are now top 20 and dont offer the same risk reward even if we have the mythical supercycle. hold but unlikely to beat the market.
outperforming will be all about narratives and hype (isnt it always?). the best technical project without a popular following could dive. there are a few major narratives bubbling around:
zk-rollups. this is suppose to fix problems (fees mostly) in Ethereum and related projects will be pumped. watching DUSK.
"Curve wars" thing, CRV, CVX and related are working finance projects and being backed by some giga whales who'll simply market buy at some point rather than be wrong.
Frog nation. another twitter meme-fest, some deep pockets want to combine a group of tokens and will make it happen imo. SHUSI, ICE, TIME, SPELL getting interest.
Gamefi. this is JEWEL thing and some others to be released. big wallets will get involved and prop up even in a bear market.
Modular chains. this is a bit under the radar as techy but if its working it solves the inherent problems of scaling (fees make chains expensive). NEAR to watch.
NFT is likely to hold up, the illiquid nature means they cant dump, right? (...right?) but well out of reach of mortals, so find the supporting projects. i dont care for storage projects however Arweave is apparently widely used base for NFT storage.
and XRP, trash as is it, will giga pump if their court case is successful.
 
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CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 27, 2009
6,005
Shoreham Beach
thought i'd share my 2022 thesis. read Ansem's newsletter and the Adam Cochran mega-thread on twitter for some better, right curve thinking.

2022 will not see widespread 10-20x pumps like 2021, will need to be far more selective and nimble. the whole market is likely to trade sideways, with BTC 50/50 to go fall to ~30k or up to ~100k, many looking at 40-70k as the range. everything could nuke 50-75 on that downside, and many wont come back. meanwhile the best tokens from 2021 are now top 20 and dont offer the same risk reward even if we have the mythical supercycle. hold but unlikely to beat the market.
outperforming will be all about narratives and hype (isnt it always?). the best technical project without a popular following could dive. there are a few major narratives bubbling around:
zk-rollups. this is suppose to fix problems (fees mostly) in Ethereum and related projects will be pumped. watching DUSK.
"Curve wars" thing, CRV, CVX and related are working finance projects and being backed by some giga whales who'll simply market buy at some point rather than be wrong.
Frog nation. another twitter meme-fest, some deep pockets want to combine a group of tokens and will make it happen imo. SHUSI, ICE, TIME, SPELL getting interest.
Gamefi. this is JEWEL thing and some others to be released. big wallets will get involved and prop up even in a bear market.
Modular chains. this is a bit under the radar as techy but if its working it solves the inherent problems of scaling (fees make chains expensive). NEAR to watch.
NFT is likely to hold up, the illiquid nature means they cant dump, right? (...right?) but well out of reach of mortals, so find the supporting projects. i dont care for storage projects however Arweave is apparently widely used base for NFT storage.
and XRP, trash as is it, will giga pump if their court case is successful.

Thanks for sharing, I especially liked the highlighted point. I had digested Adam Cochran's endless thread, but not seen Ansem. In return I offer up Tascha Labs, I really like her perspective and style.

My take is that the cautious view that not everything will turn to gold in 2022, is valid, but all of these perspectives share a USA view of the world. It would be wrong to dismiss such a massive market in terms of its influence and investment capability, but I can see little coming out of the US that is peeking my interest (Hedera is an exception). The US would appear to love buying shit on a billboard and an obsession with what Elon Musk has to say. He may be a clever guy, but he appears to be applying around 0.01% of his brain power to crypto and even the focussed minds as above seem oblivious to what is happening elsewhere in the world (it was ever thus).

The ongoing SEC v XRP case may come to a conclusion, meanwhile the UK, Switzerland, Singapore and others are quietly and confidently moving forward on financial integration. Interesting times.
 






Pintos

Well-known member
Jul 28, 2005
561
Oxted
One day stocks in Apple, Amazon and Tesla will be worthless and if no one wants to buy them you won't get your money back, all worse than a Ponzi scheme by this definition.

Well…no. They have assets. They generate an income. Even if nobody wanted to own the shares and the price fell to zero, they could liquidate everything and pay out investors the cash (which is why the price will not go to zero, barring a dramatic downturn in business)
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,358
Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme?

No its far worse than that...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRgYcHV2zd0

yep, bitcoin is an unbacked currency. just like many nation's currency, if they collapse you get nothing either. others are like company shares, if they collapse you get nothing either. (thats the whole point of shares, cash inject without obligations, higher risk-reward for the investor)

"ponzi" is a cheap accusation, thrown around too losely without understanding what that means or the structure of crypto operations. ponzi are a specific scheme where you are promised a return, which the operator pays out of the inflows of new investment, rather than actual productive returns/growth. there are some ponzis around in crypto, bitcoin and the majors are not. in case of ETH and other L1 they are fundementally providing a service (could write a thesis on how that fail long term but its not because they are a ponzi).
another fundemental misunderstanding from the guest, money isnt given to miners, tokens are which they can sell or hold. this is analogous to companies giving options to employees.
 
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