The Big Club Theorem (part deux)

[Superphil]

We have heard a lot of chat asking how big our club really is, and how big this or that club is in comparison. Now, to stop all these arguments, I have devised the Big Club Theorem thus:

The Big Club Theorem:

Big Club Rating = [Current ground capacity x club age x (1 + FA Cup final appearances + European Cup final appearances + UEFA Cup final appearances)] / 1000000

Here are a few notable Big Club Ratings including ourselves shown below. You will note that Barnsley have a slightly higher rating than us, based probably on one more cup final appearance (all figures from Wiki). Also, interesting to see that Chelsea and Spurs have similar ratings.

Man Utd: [75731 x 136 x (1 + 18 + 5 + 0)] / 1000000 = 247.2
Arsenal: [60338 x 128 x (1 + 18 + 1 + 0)] / 1000000 = 154.5
Liverpool: [45276 x 122 x (1 + 14 + 7 + 3)] / 1000000 = 138.1
Chelsea: [41837 x 109 x (1 + 11 + 2 + 1)] / 1000000 = 68.4
Spurs: [36284 x 131 x (1 + 9 + 0 + 3)] / 1000000 = 61.8
Barnsley: [23009 x 127 x (1 + 2 + 0 + 0)] /1000000 = 8.8
BHA: [30750 x 113 x (1 + 1 + 0 + 0)] / 1000000 = 7.0

In future, don’t muck about, if you need to find out if one club is bigger than another, use the Big Club Theorem.

Queens Park FC are bigger than Chelsea and Spurs then, with 77 points.

 

[raba]

And you call us Nigels

 

[Worried Man Blues]

Darlington had a whopping stadium never got close to filling it, shirley not capacity but actual fans?

 

[The Brighton Bear]

Darlington had a whopping stadium never got close to filling it, shirley not capacity but actual fans?

Average attendance?

 

[Worried Man Blues]

13 and a whippet

Average attendance?

 

[Worried Man Blues]

Actually, 25,000 capacity. Record gate 11,600

13 and a whippet

 

[Seasidesage]

Why would the capacity of a clubs ground have any bearing? Attendances yes, capacity no. Chelsea are not, nor have they ever been a bigger club than Spurs although that may change over time, better team for sure, as for Barnsley, seriously?

Also although Man Utd are clearly a much bigger club than us, but 35 times bigger?

Your formula needs some work IMO.

 

[Man of Harveys]

Forget fancy calculations, Reading are the biggest club in the world. By far.

 

[Brighton TID]

There should be an "aging" scalar associated with each of the final appearances.

I would suggest this should be something like (0.98) ^ (Years Ago - 1).

So an FA Cup final, say, 6 years ago carries ~90% of the weight of last season's, something 19 Years ago would be ~70% as important, 35 years ago is ~50%, etc.

The theorem was formed so that the average man or woman on the street could apply it simply. The aging scalar would take this away. Look at Einstein's E=mc.sq. Simples.

 

[father_and_son]

The theorem was formed so that the average man or woman on the street could apply it simply. The aging scalar would take this away. Look at Einstein's E=mc.sq. Simples.

I take your point, however E=MC^2 is actually dumbed down to a point where one of the two things it describes is lost.

The actual formula derived was E^2 = M^2 C^4, so E = +/- MC^2. This then quite elegantly "explains" the existence of antimatter as non-paradoxical to normal matter. Drop the all important "plus or minus" from the equation and a negative Energy from a positive Matter becomes seemingly incompatible with the equation.


Nerdy physics I know, but sometimes a little dumbing down is a bad thing.


I haven't even started on scaling down the ground capacity figures by a function of "percentage full" for home league and home cup games, adjusted by average away following multiplied by average distance travelled. Then there needs to be a "recognition" element, based on overseas shirt sales...



I honestly, really haven't even begun to pick this formula apart!
This sort of real world mathematical modelling was my university dissertation and is my professional career!

 

[Goldstone1976]

I take your point, however E=MC^2 is actually dumbed down to a point where one of the two things it describes is lost.

The actual formula derived was E^2 = M^2 C^4, so E = +/- MC^2. This then quite elegantly "explains" the existence of antimatter as non-paradoxical to normal matter. Drop the all important "plus or minus" from the equation and a negative Energy from a positive Matter becomes seemingly incompatible with the equation.


Nerdy physics I know, but sometimes a little dumbing down is a bad thing.


I haven't even started on scaling down the ground capacity figures by a function of "percentage full" for home league and home cup games, adjusted by average away following multiplied by average distance travelled. Then there needs to be a "recognition" element, based on overseas shirt sales...



I honestly, really haven't even begun to pick this formula apart!
This sort of real world mathematical modelling was my university dissertation and is my professional career!

Your suitability and volunteering for the job has been noted and accepted. How long do we have to wait to see your draft equation?

 

[Puppet Master]

Can I just add....bank balance?

 

[father_and_son]

Your suitability and volunteering for the job has been noted and accepted. How long do we have to wait to see your draft equation?

As a professional in this field... I will critique someone else's work for free. Putting back to together what I've pulled apart incurs a large consultation fee!


[But I may actually give this a go at some point during the season]

 

[father_and_son]

Can I just add....bank balance?

Danger of double counting ... Large bank balance = increased transfer activity ~ higher attendance + greater shirt sales + more finals.

 

[Puppet Master]

Danger of double counting ... Large bank balance = increased transfer activity ~ higher attendance + greater shirt sales + more finals.

Largest transfer fee paid?

 

[father_and_son]

Largest transfer fee paid?

There is definitely something needed to cover the cash aspect, but it will interact a lot with the other factors. I have already introduced a number of Finite Series Sums and a complex function regarding the Capacity/Attendance issue. I'd have to run a Generalised Linear Model for the impacts of Cash/Transfers vs Results and Recognition to confirm that there is an Independent Variable that should be in the model.

...and the fee has just doubled!

 

[Goldstone1976]

There is definitely something needed to cover the cash aspect, but it will interact a lot with the other factors. I have already introduced a number of Finite Series Sums and a complex function regarding the Capacity/Attendance issue. I'd have to run a Generalised Linear Model for the impacts of Cash/Transfers vs Results and Recognition to confirm that there is an Independent Variable that should be in the model.

...and the fee has just doubled!

Yep, and I'd question the assumptions in the GLM, leading to revisions to the model which widened the range of possible outcomes. Eventually, after a two-year contract earning you pots of money, we'd have a model that everyone agreed with, but which had so many variables, each with such a wide range of outcomes that all we could infer is that Man U is a bigger club than BHA.

 

[Brighton TID]

I take your point, however E=MC^2 is actually dumbed down to a point where one of the two things it describes is lost.

The actual formula derived was E^2 = M^2 C^4, so E = +/- MC^2. This then quite elegantly "explains" the existence of antimatter as non-paradoxical to normal matter. Drop the all important "plus or minus" from the equation and a negative Energy from a positive Matter becomes seemingly incompatible with the equation.


Nerdy physics I know, but sometimes a little dumbing down is a bad thing.


I haven't even started on scaling down the ground capacity figures by a function of "percentage full" for home league and home cup games, adjusted by average away following multiplied by average distance travelled. Then there needs to be a "recognition" element, based on overseas shirt sales...



I honestly, really haven't even begun to pick this formula apart!
This sort of real world mathematical modelling was my university dissertation and is my professional career!

As author of the original, and some might say, best, theorem on this subject to date, I am entralled by your thoughts on how my base equation could be taken forward in the pursuit of gaining enhanced realisticity. We also need some kind of coefficient in there somewhere derived from the available fanbase area available to a club in relation to the world's landmass as a whole. Bollox to trying to keep the equation available to the man on the street for use against his palace supporting mate in the pub, let's go for complicated but realistic.

 

[Stoo82]

Don't forget loss of point for amount of times the club has gone bust. Sorry if its already been suggested.

Cough cough Palace, cough cough Portsmouth.

 

[crodonilson]

Terry Birch who is a Birmingham City NUT still maintains they're the biggest club outside the PL. I may have to show him this formula.