[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[LamieRobertson]

There were a few fine flakes in Findon around 7:30 this morning too.

It’ll be raindrops tomorrow judging from the forecast

 

[dazzer6666]

Any of our learned weather model watchers any views on the excitement that seems to be gathering on some of the weather forums ?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Any of our learned weather model watchers any views on the excitement that seems to be gathering on some of the weather forums ?

Yes, there have been some beautiful looking charts appearing in the model output for Xmas Day onwards, but there is still HUGE uncertainty as to any specific outcome.

This GFS ensemble chart, which shows the air mas temperature (roughly) shows that from 25th onwards there is a large spread of outcomes.



The lower runs, with 850hpa temps at -5C and below are probably cold enough for snow, the rest (milder) aren't.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The 2M temperature plot also shows a clear split / divergence from Xmas Eve.

 

[Giraffe]

Just getting my sledge rubbed down.

 

[Arthur]

Yes, there have been some beautiful looking charts appearing in the model output for Xmas Day onwards, but there is still HUGE uncertainty as to any specific outcome.

This GFS ensemble chart, which shows the air mas temperature (roughly) shows that from 25th onwards there is a large spread of outcomes.

View attachment 142865

The lower runs, with 850hpa temps at -5C and below are probably cold enough for snow, the rest (milder) aren't.

That's wonderful but I've no idea what any of it means.......is 6/1 for snow in London on Christmas day worth having?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

That's wonderful but I've no idea what any of it means.......is 6/1 for snow in London on Christmas day worth having?

The data suggest about a 10-15% chance of snow in London on Xmas Day at the moment, so 6/1 looks about right? (you understand odds better than me).

 

[banjo]

It’ll be rain for us.

 

[dazzer6666]

The 2M temperature plot also shows a clear split / divergence from Xmas Eve.

View attachment 142866

Thanks for the reply…I’m a bit of a lurker on the netweather forum (model watching) but don’t understand half of what they are talking about most of the time. Quite funny to see the parallels with NSC though…….opinionated poster says something, gets shot down etc etc. Fair share of ‘bedwetters’ on there as well looking for anything negative.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Thanks for the reply…I’m a bit of a lurker on the netweather forum (model watching) but don’t understand half of what they are talking about most of the time. Quite funny to see the parallels with NSC though…….opinionated poster says something, gets shot down etc etc. Fair share of ‘bedwetters’ on there as well looking for anything negative.

I've seen people on twitter exasperated with the fighting on Netweather. I am a member, but prefer The Weather Outlook.

 

[Bry Nylon]

Light snow just started falling here in north Essex.

 

[Giraffe]

Light snow just started falling here in north Essex.

Really? Still way to warm in sunny/rainy Sussex.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Really? Still way to warm in sunny/rainy Sussex.

It was a bit chilly in Hove this morning …hands were hurting while I was working

 

[Muhammed - I’m hard - Bruce Lee]

Really? Still way to warm in sunny/rainy Sussex.

There were bits of snow in with the rain in north East Sussex yesterday morning

 

[Audax]

Bit of a frost this morning, but nothing any more interesting than that.

At the moment, it's all a bit clutching at straws over on netweather among the snow-seekers.

 

[Giraffe]

Certainly chillier overnight, but even the frost that was visible this morning was a bit tepid. Barely a scrape on the car needed. I hate to go all Uncle S but I fear snow this winter is going to be hard to find down here.

 

[Bozza]

Certainly chillier overnight, but even the frost that was visible this morning was a bit tepid. Barely a scrape on the car needed. I hate to go all Uncle S but I fear snow this winter is going to be hard to find down here.

Barely a scrape? Pretty thick frost on my windscreen at 8am not too far from you.

I was out with the dog over the Downs at 7am though and still in shorts. Lovely crisp morning to be out.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Another complete non event this winter. Metcheck average well above average December and January so far. Says it all now that in early January a max day temperature of 7 C is considered a cold winters day now. There seems to be a lot of snow events across the World now but never in Europe. Europe has become very mild all across now. Never mind, maybe next winter

 

[LamieRobertson]

Another complete non event this winter. Metcheck average well above average December and January so far. Says it all now that in early January a max day temperature of 7 C is considered a cold winters day now. There seems to be a lot of snow events across the World now but never in Europe. Europe has become very mild all across now. Never mind, maybe next winter

Whilst I agree with your summation…barely halfway through? Still time… I’m due to take some time off in February, it’s bound to snow then

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I’m watching our women’s team kick off at Crawley, where the pitch had to be cleared of snow this morning. You can see it at the side of the pitch.
It’s on IPlayer.