[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

These Polar winds coming down across America. What would the temperature be here if we had the same strength polar winds? Probably still wouldn't get below freezing would it? Warming sea and all that.

America is bonkers for weather..

If we had the exact same winds (i.e. same direction) they would be heavily modified by the Atlantic, the air would pick up moisture and warmth and we'd get cool but very unstable weather. Similar to what we got, but our actual weather came the whole way across the Atlantic, so we milder and much more unsettled.

Now when we get the reverse wind direction - i.e. a NE wind from Siberia or NE Scandinavia, that's when we get our lowest temps. we've had day time temperatures of as low as -10C on rare occasions. There would of course be a degree of moderation over the North Sea, but for the extreme SE, with the correct wind direction (just N or an Easterly) you can get very cold / dry air reaching the UK.

We've had a few times over our lifetimes where we get everything right, and I recall Feb 1991 gave some very cold max temps with this setup.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910207.gif

This shows the 850hpa temp for the air at that time:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00219910207.gif

 

[casbom]

If we had the exact same winds (i.e. same direction) they would be heavily modified by the Atlantic, the air would pick up moisture and warmth and we'd get cool but very unstable weather. Similar to what we got, but our actual weather came the whole way across the Atlantic, so we milder and much more unsettled.

Now when we get the reverse wind direction - i.e. a NE wind from Siberia or NE Scandinavia, that's when we get our lowest temps. we've had day time temperatures of as low as -10C on rare occasions. There would of course be a degree of moderation over the North Sea, but for the extreme SE, with the correct wind direction (just N or an Easterly) you can get very cold / dry air reaching the UK.

We've had a few times over our lifetimes where we get everything right, and I recall Feb 1991 gave some very cold max temps with this setup.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910207.gif

This shows the 850hpa temp for the air at that time:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00219910207.gif

And obviously the coldest 850hpa we've got here came back in Jan 87, I believe it was -17 or something along those lines!

The MetOffice are sitting on the fence at the moment as despite the encouraging cold signals, there still plenty of ensemble members who do not bring in the easterly, or at least a shortened version of it (a day or two) before the Azores High pressure ridges in and cuts off the cold flow. So at the moment (and as the saying goes with us weather geeks) more runs are needed!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

And obviously the coldest 850hpa we've got here came back in Jan 87, I believe it was -17 or something along those lines!

The MetOffice are sitting on the fence at the moment as despite the encouraging cold signals, there still plenty of ensemble members who do not bring in the easterly, or at least a shortened version of it (a day or two) before the Azores High pressure ridges in and cuts off the cold flow. So at the moment (and as the saying goes with us weather geeks) more runs are needed!

Yes, 1987 was amazing. I just didn't have the time to find the specific charts (I couldn't recall the exact date). The key date does appear to be the 13th Jan. It's from that point that the ensemble diverges pretty rapidly. I'd expect that divergence to narrow as we edge closer, and we'll see strong agreement one way or another from that point.

Were we to get agreement of the Easterly, then we'd need to look at the longevity, but that's a logn way off; for now.

 

[severnside gull]

Remember driving past Heathrow one mid December morning about 3 years ago when the airport was closed and my car sensor indicated it was -19C

 

[severnside gull]

Remember driving past Heathrow one mid December morning about 3 years ago when the airport was closed and my car sensor indicated it was -19C

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Remember driving past Heathrow one mid December morning about 3 years ago when the airport was closed and my car sensor indicated it was -19C

Was that just before Christmas?

We were down in the West Country and Xmas morning in Branstaple it was -13C with about a foot of snow on the ground.

 

[severnside gull]

Was that just before Christmas?

We were down in the West Country and Xmas morning in Branstaple it was -13C with about a foot of snow on the ground.

It was indeed. We had driven back from Amsterdam in snowstorms and exited the tunnel to clear skies but the deepest frost I can recall and a temperature drop of about fifteen degrees.

 

[LU7 RED]

Was that just before Christmas?

We were down in the West Country and Xmas morning in Branstaple it was -13C with about a foot of snow on the ground.

That was probably December 2010, the last saturday before christmas - remember the pictures from Heathrow of that Virgin jet stuck on the runway and the pilot waving out of the window? We had the heaviest snow I have seen in this country for about 2 hours in the afternoon. The in laws in Bedford had about 8 inches as it seemed to slow up and just stop in Bedfordshire. Remember opening the front door and the snow falling into the hallway!

It was the follwing Monday morning that was really cold - think about -11 and -15 in Woburn. Also remember 1987 - cycling to school with my mouth shut because my teeth were hurting so much!

 

[Giraffe]

80% chance of snow on 18th January according to net weather. For what that's worth.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

80% chance of snow on 18th January according to net weather. For what that's worth.

the 6Z GFS shows between 10-25% chance on that day, but that is the ensemble view.

 

[Norman Potting]

80% chance of snow on 18th January according to net weather. For what that's worth.

But what doew the "Express" have to say on the matter?

 

[chucky1973]

the 6Z GFS shows between 10-25% chance on that day, but that is the ensemble view.

in English?

 

[HawkTheSeagull]

But what doew the "Express" have to say on the matter?

THOUSANDS of MILES of snow PILED UP blocking EVERYONE in their houses, but the MIGRANTS will STILL get access to the UK.

Oh, and the SNOW is involved in the CONSPIRACY theory for DIANA.

Does that cover everything ?

 

[Badger]

But what doew the "Express" have to say on the matter?

View attachment 50087

 

[casbom]

According to the latest forecast models, it's looking like cold rain next week instead of chances of snow. So the pendulum has swung back to mild and away from cold! Still, there is alot of uncertainty about next week. Best to come back at the end of weekend to have an idea of what's going to happen!

 

[Taybha]

in English?

No trains

 

[bluenitsuj]

THOUSANDS of MILES of snow PILED UP blocking EVERYONE in their houses, but the MIGRANTS will STILL get access to the UK.

Oh, and the SNOW is involved in the CONSPIRACY theory for DIANA.

Does that cover everything ?

Maddie?

 

[HawkTheSeagull]

Maddie?

Its a cover for the McCanns to move Maddie to another location.

Thats that covered as well.

 

[phoenix]

Its a cover for the McCanns to move Maddie to another location.

Thats that covered as well.

not funny.

 

[chucky1973]

According to the latest forecast models, it's looking like cold rain next week instead of chances of snow. So the pendulum has swung back to mild and away from cold! Still, there is alot of uncertainty about next week. Best to come back at the end of weekend to have an idea of what's going to happen!

you miserable git. GIVE ME SNOW.