Stoke and Copeland Matchday By-election Thread

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Two tight match ups tonight between Labour and the Tories in Copeland, and Labour and UKIP in Stoke tonight.

Labour have slimming majorities in both seats but in normal circumstances it would be easy holds, these are not normal circumstances with a fractured Labour party and the public feeling left behind more than ever.

I expect a lot of MPs will be calling for Corbyn's head tonight but the blame can't be solely pinned on him, what have the Blairite arm of the Labour party done for Copeland and Stoke other than parachute in people called Tristram.

 

[beorhthelm]

predicting 1 - 1

 

[Titanic]

predicting 1 - 1

UKIP 1 Tories 1 ?

 

[Ernest]

Two MASSIVE victories for LABOUR

 

[Titanic]

Two MASSIVE victories for LABOUR

Is that 'victories' for the Labour party as a whole or for Jezza to help him cling on?

 

[Machiavelli]

Two MASSIVE victories for LABOUR

Not a chance. Two traditional Labour communities providing a message for Labour Party members, supporters and affiliates to reflect on.

 

[Ernest]

Paul NUTCASE and a Tory who wants to shut their local hospital and they think they will BEAT Labour ?

#BONKERS

 

[spring hall convert]

I expect a lot of MPs will be calling for Corbyn's head tonight but the blame can't be solely pinned on him, what have the Blairite arm of the Labour party done for Copeland and Stoke other than parachute in people called Tristram.

I don't know about that. They're 18% behind in the polls. Three times more voters express a preference for Theresa May as prime minister than Jeremy Corbyn. Losing either of these by-elections is embarrassing, given one would see the Conservatives gaining a seat in a by-election in Government for the first time since 1982 and the other would be losing to a UKIP campaign that really couldn't have gone much worse. Lose both and it is an absolute disaster.

However, let's not jump the gun. They really should win both.

 

[spring hall convert]

predicting 1 - 1

So am I. Which one do you think they'll lose?

 

[Brovion]

Two MASSIVE victories for LABOUR

Yup! 2-0 to the good guys!

*crosses fingers*

Should hold Stoke at any rate. Even though it's a Brexit stronghold Labour could put the most passionate Remainer up for a candidate and people would still vote for the rosette. And Paul Nuttall is one of the very few people who actually lives up to his name.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Oh yeah, Stoke.

 

[Ernest]

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

I don't know about that. They're 18% behind in the polls. Three times more voters express a preference for Theresa May as prime minister than Jeremy Corbyn. Losing either of these by-elections is embarrassing, given one would see the Conservatives gaining a seat in a by-election in Government for the first time since 1982 and the other would be losing to a UKIP campaign that really couldn't have gone much worse. Lose both and it is an absolute disaster.

However, let's not jump the gun. They really should win both.

Labour share of the vote for both seats has been decreasing from 1997 onwards.

It would be poor to lose either, Corbyn might not be an effective leader or have a chance in a GE but the tides turned in seats such as this a long time ago and if the centre of the party think that someone like Cuka or Jarvis is the answer then I think they have got it all wrong.

 

[Berty23]

Tight victories for labour would be a terrible result for the party. At this stage in a parliamentary cycle the opposition should be increasing their vote share. If labour lose lots of the vote share, which they will, then this is a clear signal of trouble; but it won't be bad enough for Corbyn to go. If Corbyn stays then I don't see how labour will do anything other than bomb in the next election.

 

[jakarta]

Recent UKIP capers won't help them, suspect a close victory for Labour in both seats, not that those results will help Jezza in the long run...

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Wonder what Tory central office are hoping for. Labour losing both makes it more likely he will be gone before the next GE, bad for the Tories. Labour winning both will be portrayed as a victory for Corbyn making another coup less likely, good for the Tories. My prediction, one loss to The Blues in Copeland. Which is probably what Central office want, damages Labour but doesn't strike a fatal blow to Corbyn.

 

[wellquickwoody]

Two MASSIVE victories for LABOUR

You should be on the stage you.

 

[Machiavelli]

Labour share of the vote for both seats has been decreasing from 1997 onwards.

It would be poor to lose either, Corbyn might not be an effective leader or have a chance in a GE but the tides turned in seats such as this a long time ago and if the centre of the party think that someone like Cuka or Jarvis is the answer then I think they have got it all wrong.

I think your analysis of Labour's long-term demise, and its causes are pretty much right.
I hate the 'What If?' approach to history, but I do wonder where things would be if Miliband had mastered communication more effectively, developed a far simpler strategy and message and, as a consequence, won in 2015. I'm sure I'll get shot down for this, but hey ho.

 

[carlzeiss]

Should be a walkover for Labour .

 

[Bolton va va]

Two MASSIVE victories for LABOUR

A massive victory for the future of the Labour party would be 2 electoral defeats in these by-elections.