So who will win the national?

[Normal Rob]

I appreciate that there may well be a naps challenge that includes the National - but maybe some of our resident experts would like to explain who will win,and why.

 

[Deano's Right Foot]

Amebrleigh House

Loves the course, jumps well.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

one of the white horses. i always get me dad to put my bet on them....just so i can spot it when they all fall over teeheehee

 

[DTES]

Whoever Deano's Right Foot puts his money on on the day itself would probably be a safe bet.

 

[sullyupthewing]

Bindaree simply because it will, I am backing this nag EW.

 

[bhafc4eva]

Clan royal you heard it here first.

 

[Northstander]

I have got mine on already,

Amberleigh house to win @16-1

And....

Gunner Welburn each way @25-1

bring it on, bit concerned though as it is raining heavy oop north and will make it heavy going!!

 

[Normal Rob]

Amberleigh House? - isn't that a bit of a nostalgia bet due to the Red Rum connection?

 

[Lammy]

Monty's Pass is overpriced at 25-1

 

[Hannibal smith]

For the non racing experts the Grand National is a handicap. What this means in practical terms is that each horse is allocated an official rating by the Handicapper and this is then translated into the amount of weight that the horse carries. The better the horse the more weight it carries. If you look at the race card it will give a series of numbers next to the horse such as 12, 11 4. The first number is the horses age, the second and third the weight so this is 12 years old carrying 11st 4lb. The weights range from 10 stone to 12 stone. So Le Coudray is officially the best horse in the race but carries 12 stone to compensate.

Traditionally, the horse that wins is one that is 'well in' with the handicapper or an up and coming horse as this is carrying less weight and open to improvement The ones at the top of the weights have an obvious disadvantage to those who are unexposed near the base of the handicap. If memory serves only Red Rum has carried more than 11st 4lb to victory in the past 25 years so the top half a dozen horses can effectively be crossed off the list - If they do win that is one good run. The horses that have a perceived better rating than weight carried are JURANCON II but Martin Pipe has a terrible record in this race. SHARDAM is another where its weight allowance does seem light based on Cheltenham form

The old Maxim seems to apply to Aintree - Horses for Courses. Those with good records at the track are AMBERLEIGH HOUSE, GUNNER WELBURN and 2 previous winners MONTYS PASS and BINDAREE. The later 2 appear to have too much weight for a repeat but the way Monty's pass won last year means a place is a distinct possibility.

If it Rains TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN and BEAR ON BOARD are the resident soft ground experts. TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN has also won at big prices twice this year already so is not a bad outside bet.

HEDGEHUNTER has been laid out for the race but his jumping sometimes lets him down, the same comment about the jumping can be applied to ALCAPONE and THE BUNNY BOILER

My idea of a winner though is CLAN ROYAL. This has raced twice round Aintree and has won both times and seems low in the handicap given his achievements. Trainer
Jonjo O Neil has laid him out for the race and I think will take all the beating.

 

[Lammy]

For the non racing experts the Grand National is a handicap. What this means in practical terms is that each horse is allocated an official rating by the Handicapper and this is then translated into the amount of weight that the horse carries. The better the horse the more weight it carries. If you look at the race card it will give a series of numbers next to the horse such as 12, 11 4. The first number is the horses age, the second and third the weight so this is 12 years old carrying 11st 4lb. The weights range from 10 stone to 12 stone. So Le Coudray is officially the best horse in the race but carries 12 stone to compensate.

Traditionally, the horse that wins is one that is 'well in' with the handicapper or an up and coming horse as this is carrying less weight and open to improvement The ones at the top of the weights have an obvious disadvantage to those who are unexposed near the base of the handicap. If memory serves only Red Rum has carried more than 11st 4lb to victory in the past 25 years so the top half a dozen horses can effectively be crossed off the list - If they do win that is one good run. The horses that have a perceived better rating than weight carried are JURANCON II but Martin Pipe has a terrible record in this race. SHARDAM is another where its weight allowance does seem light based on Cheltenham form

The old Maxim seems to apply to Aintree - Horses for Courses. Those with good records at the track are AMBERLEIGH HOUSE, GUNNER WELBURN and 2 previous winners MONTYS PASS and BINDAREE. The later 2 appear to have too much weight for a repeat but the way Monty's pass won last year means a place is a distinct possibility.

If it Rains TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN and BEAR ON BOARD are the resident soft ground experts. TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN has also won at big prices twice this year already so is not a bad outside bet.

HEDGEHUNTER has been laid out for the race but his jumping sometimes lets him down, the same comment about the jumping can be applied to ALCAPONE and THE BUNNY BOILER

My idea of a winner though is CLAN ROYAL. This has raced twice round Aintree and has won both times and seems low in the handicap given his achievements. Trainer
Jonjo O Neil has laid him out for the race and I think will take all the beating.

You make it sound like an exact science. The National is a lottery. A good horse can be taken out by bad horses etc. Between myself and Mrs Lammy we've got the following;

Bindaree 10/1
Monty's Pass 20/1
The Bunny Boiler 66/1
Le Coudray 25/1

Money in the bank

 

[Northstander]

For the non racing experts the Grand National is a handicap. What this means in practical terms is that each horse is allocated an official rating by the Handicapper and this is then translated into the amount of weight that the horse carries. The better the horse the more weight it carries. If you look at the race card it will give a series of numbers next to the horse such as 12, 11 4. The first number is the horses age, the second and third the weight so this is 12 years old carrying 11st 4lb. The weights range from 10 stone to 12 stone. So Le Coudray is officially the best horse in the race but carries 12 stone to compensate.

Traditionally, the horse that wins is one that is 'well in' with the handicapper or an up and coming horse as this is carrying less weight and open to improvement The ones at the top of the weights have an obvious disadvantage to those who are unexposed near the base of the handicap. If memory serves only Red Rum has carried more than 11st 4lb to victory in the past 25 years so the top half a dozen horses can effectively be crossed off the list - If they do win that is one good run. The horses that have a perceived better rating than weight carried are JURANCON II but Martin Pipe has a terrible record in this race. SHARDAM is another where its weight allowance does seem light based on Cheltenham form

The old Maxim seems to apply to Aintree - Horses for Courses. Those with good records at the track are AMBERLEIGH HOUSE, GUNNER WELBURN and 2 previous winners MONTYS PASS and BINDAREE. The later 2 appear to have too much weight for a repeat but the way Monty's pass won last year means a place is a distinct possibility.

If it Rains TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN and BEAR ON BOARD are the resident soft ground experts. TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN has also won at big prices twice this year already so is not a bad outside bet.

HEDGEHUNTER has been laid out for the race but his jumping sometimes lets him down, the same comment about the jumping can be applied to ALCAPONE and THE BUNNY BOILER

My idea of a winner though is CLAN ROYAL. This has raced twice round Aintree and has won both times and seems low in the handicap given his achievements. Trainer
Jonjo O Neil has laid him out for the race and I think will take all the beating.

NICE!

 

[GUNTER]

My four to follow would be

1st - Jurancon II at 10/1 (front runs and stays 4 miles+)
2nd - Whats up Boys at 25/1 (fresh and has finished 2nd over course and distance)
3rd - Bounce Back (overpriced at 66/1 will stay the distance and off a low weight)
4th - Exit to Wave - 33/1, will run on for a place.

 

[Hannibal smith]

You make it sound like an exact science. The National is a lottery. A good horse can be taken out by bad horses etc. Between myself and Mrs Lammy we've got the following;

Bindaree 10/1
Monty's Pass 20/1
The Bunny Boiler 66/1
Le Coudray 25/1

Money in the bank

An exact science it is not! I Actually hate the National to a certain extent. I follow National Hunt racing all year and am constantly asked What will Win? Based on form I give an answer then some Nag trots up and people say 'I thought you knew about racing?

In recent years I had Beau when the rider lost the reins (it would have P!ssed it if not) and 2 horses bought down - Thats just the nature of the National. Far better to back Cornish Rebel in the 4.20 today.

 

[Lammy]

If you go into the form books and conditions etc you'll just end up backing the favourite everytime.

 

[ben andrews' girlfriend]

i decided last night that whoevers got number 14 will win

 

[Northstander]

Amberleigh House is an Aintree horse that has been specifically trained for the national he has the same trainer as Red Rum had a true scoucer.

DEAD CERT!

 

[Harold]

Hedgehunter or Joss Naylor.

 

[Normal Rob]

For the non racing experts the Grand National is a handicap. What this means in practical terms is that each horse is allocated an official rating by the Handicapper and this is then translated into the amount of weight that the horse carries. The better the horse the more weight it carries. If you look at the race card it will give a series of numbers next to the horse such as 12, 11 4. The first number is the horses age, the second and third the weight so this is 12 years old carrying 11st 4lb. The weights range from 10 stone to 12 stone. So Le Coudray is officially the best horse in the race but carries 12 stone to compensate.

Traditionally, the horse that wins is one that is 'well in' with the handicapper or an up and coming horse as this is carrying less weight and open to improvement The ones at the top of the weights have an obvious disadvantage to those who are unexposed near the base of the handicap. If memory serves only Red Rum has carried more than 11st 4lb to victory in the past 25 years so the top half a dozen horses can effectively be crossed off the list - If they do win that is one good run. The horses that have a perceived better rating than weight carried are JURANCON II but Martin Pipe has a terrible record in this race. SHARDAM is another where its weight allowance does seem light based on Cheltenham form

The old Maxim seems to apply to Aintree - Horses for Courses. Those with good records at the track are AMBERLEIGH HOUSE, GUNNER WELBURN and 2 previous winners MONTYS PASS and BINDAREE. The later 2 appear to have too much weight for a repeat but the way Monty's pass won last year means a place is a distinct possibility.

If it Rains TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN and BEAR ON BOARD are the resident soft ground experts. TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN has also won at big prices twice this year already so is not a bad outside bet.

HEDGEHUNTER has been laid out for the race but his jumping sometimes lets him down, the same comment about the jumping can be applied to ALCAPONE and THE BUNNY BOILER

My idea of a winner though is CLAN ROYAL. This has raced twice round Aintree and has won both times and seems low in the handicap given his achievements. Trainer
Jonjo O Neil has laid him out for the race and I think will take all the beating.

I thankyou for your clear and concise post - it'll come in handy on other races. As i think we are all aware though - when it comes to the national the old adage of 'you pay your money and you take your chance' is even more apt than with regular gambling.

 

[Jim D]

Regarding Clan Royal - I saw something on TV today where the 'expert' said that no horse has won the race for over 50 years without having a 'run' since Jan 1st. And Clan Royal hasn't run since November.