[Albion] So, that's a quarter of the season gone

[soistes]

For what it's worth (if my figures are correct, and they may not be), looking at the leaders after 12 matches in the previous seven seasons, and where they ended up at the end of the season:

2008/09: Birmingham (2nd - automatic)
2009/10: West Brom (2nd - automatic)
2010/11: QPR (Champions)
20011/12: Southampton (2nd - automatic)
2012/13: Leicester (6th - playoffs, not promoted)
2013/14: Burnley (2nd - automatic)
2014/15: Watford (2nd - automatic)

On that basis, having got this far in the first quarter of the season, it looks as if we might have a reasonable shot at second by the end.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Yep, a quarter. When are we allowed to start dreaming?

It's good to see our fans aren't singing about going up yet.

Please can we not do this unless we are top going into the final few games.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Points needed for automatic promotion over the past 10 years (most recent first, taken as 1 point above 3rd place):
87, 86, 78, 87, 81, 80, 81, 76, 85, 82 = average 82.3

So for 25% of the season gone, we have 34% of the average points required for auto promotion......just saying' for those that like meaningless stats!

What are our points needed per game from this point on for promotion in an average Season?

 

[Bold Seagull]

What are our points needed per game from this point on for promotion in an average Season?

1.62 pts per game to get to 83 points.

i.e. 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats per 10 games

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

1.62 pts per game to get to 83 points.

Thanks, that sounds so good!

 

[saafend_seagull]

26% of the season played to be exact

I'd say the points total is looking higher than the norm, when Derby win tonight they will have 23 points from 12 = 88 points, so 61 points needed = 20 wins 1 draw and 13 losses could well be enough. We have 17 home games left.

 

[nicko31]

1.62 pts per game to get to 83 points.

i.e. 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats per 10 games

If we can just turn the Amex into a fortress and get a few points on the road that will be enough

 

[dazzer6666]

Little ol' Brighton top of the league. Who would have thought it? No doubt the idiots at Boro and Derby etc will be saying "it won't last", "they're punching above their weight" etc. We'll see.

Same as they said about Bournemouth last year perhaps ?

 

[albionite]

Little ol' Brighton top of the league. Who would have thought it? No doubt the idiots at Boro and Derby etc will be saying "it won't last", "they're punching above their weight" etc. We'll see.

Derby already have such a thread

http://dcfcfans.uk/topic/20536-when-will-brighton-lose/

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Quarter of a season ? Wow. Just keep on doing what we are doing.

The team does have a resilience and an attitude of hard work that we have not always had in recent years.

 

[perseus]

Sis points clear after Christmas and four points clear after Easter and I will start believing.

Already on target for 85* pts which should at least make it worth a second half of the season tickets (if I had not already got one). * This applies we are punching slighty above our weight right now and we have had a relatively easy start,

 

[dazzer6666]

Derby already have such a thread

http://dcfcfans.uk/topic/20536-when-will-brighton-lose/

Nice how the OP's fellow Rams have pretty much slapped him down

 

[perseus]

What Albion players would get in the Derby first team? Or run them close man for man?

http://www.whoscored.com/Matches/958902/Preview

Man for Man

Carson 8 Stockdale 7
Christie 7 Bruno 7.5
Forsyth 7 Bong 7
Keogh 7 Hünemeier 6.5
Shackell 7 Dunk 7.5
Johnson 7 Rosenoir 7
Thorne 7.5 Stephens 7.5
Hendrick 7.5 Kayal 7
Russell 7 Lualua 7
Martin 7.5 Hemed/Zamora 7
Ince 7.5 March/Murphy 7

Total 80 - 78

 

[Nathan]

We still have some very tough games to play in the first half of the season. We are doing very well at the moment, but if the season was a 90 minute football match we are only in the 23rd minute of the match.

 

[kevo]

Derby already have such a thread

http://dcfcfans.uk/topic/20536-when-will-brighton-lose/

Some amusing comments on that thread (amongst the sensible ones):

Apparently we have been 'lucky' (not particularly lucky against Bolton and Cardiff were we?).

We don't have any players that would get in to their first XI.

We were played off the park last night (!)

We are f**ked without Zamora (even tho he has only made one start for us this season).

 

[Bold Seagull]

We still have some very tough games to play in the first half of the season. We are doing very well at the moment, but if the season was a 90 minute football match we are only in the 23rd minute of the match.

What's the score!?

 

[perseus]

PS: I forgot about Baldock 7

 

[kevo]

We still have some very tough games to play in the first half of the season. We are doing very well at the moment, but if the season was a 90 minute football match we are only in the 23rd minute of the match.

Most matches actually last about 95 mins with first and second half added time. So it's 25 mins gone.

As for the score, I reckon we're 1-0 up in terms of automatic promotion and 2-0 up in terms of the play-offs!

 

[Moshe Gariani]

My standard input to these threads is to quote the bookmakers' odds. They currently give us a 1 in 3 chance of automatic promotion.

Despite the likely significance of this independent and expert view I still have an irrational belief that we are more like 50/50 for automatic promotion and odds on if you include via the play-offs...!

 

[WhingForPresident]

Derby already have such a thread

http://dcfcfans.uk/topic/20536-when-will-brighton-lose/

Apparently we got 'played off the park' last night?!