Scottish By-Election.

[Leekbrookgull]

Gordon Brown,faces another by-election in the Scottish seat of Glenrothes after the death of the seating M/P. Labour are defending a 10,000+ Maj. The seat which borders Brown,s own seat is fertile ground for both the Lib-Dems and SNP. Could be interesting.

 

[Fixtures]

Gordon Brown,faces another by-election in the Scottish seat of Glenrothes after the death of the seating M/P. Labour are defending a 10,000+ Maj. The seat which borders Brown,s own seat is fertile ground for both the Lib-Dems and SNP. Could be interesting.

Interesting - but not as interesting as wondering why anyone would even THINK of putting a comma between 'Brown' and 'faces' in the above sentence. Now that is truly baffling! Seriously, I'm intrigued why you did that.

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Bad grammer. I hold my hands up.

 

[larus]

Interesting - but not as interesting as wondering why anyone would even THINK of putting a comma between 'Brown' and 'faces' in the above sentence. Now that is truly baffling! Seriously, I'm intrigued why you did that.

I must admit that I'm also intrigued why you haven't included either an exclamation mark or a question mark at the end of your sentence "Seriously, I'm intrigued why you did that.", as it must be either one or the other.

 

[Fixtures]

I must admit that I'm also intrigued why you haven't included either an exclamation mark or a question mark at the end of your sentence "Seriously, I'm intrigued why you did that.", as it must be either one or the other.

Why must it? Silly boy!

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

A 10000+ existing majority might just be enough for Labour to retain this seat. Glasgow East was a massive victory for the SNP but in this constituency there will be a strong showing from the LibDems which could split votes between SNP and LibDems and let Labour retain the seat with a small majority of 500 or so. In a previous thread about Glasgow East, I said that the voters would give IrnBru Gordy a kick up the arse and they did.

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Grimsby,reckon you could be right ? It seems this M/P was a decent 'local guy' and a split vote could be just enough to see Labour in ?

 

[bigc]

A 10000+ existing majority might just be enough for Labour to retain this seat. Glasgow East was a massive victory for the SNP but in this constituency there will be a strong showing from the LibDems which could split votes between SNP and LibDems and let Labour retain the seat with a small majority of 500 or so. In a previous thread about Glasgow East, I said that the voters would give IrnBru Gordy a kick up the arse and they did.

Also apparently this by-election may not be until October/November...

There could well be a new Labour leader by then which could alter the course of events.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Also apparently this by-election may not be until October/November...

There could well be a new Labour leader by then which could alter the course of events.

A new Labour leader would be disastrous. Blair became leader and PM after a pact between him and Brown , so was elected leader unopposed. Blair stepped down and handed over power to Brown without a leadership contest. The same scenario is likely if Brown is ousted after a vote of no confidence - only a one horse race.

 

[Buzzer]

No, I disagree. Labour WILL lose this too.

In the Scottish Parliamentary Elections in 2007, SNP got 45%, Labour 39% and all other parties were squeezed out. Coupled with the latest Scottish opinion polls giving the SNP the largest EVER lead over Labour, coupled with inflation hitting (officially) 5%. We all know it's much higher where it matters.

One of 2 scenarios will emerge after this:

1) Jack Straw and Alistair Darling approach the PM and tell him to go citing "ill-health" as a reason to walk.

2) More unrest within Labour, more "getting on with business" bollocks, more voter disfatisfaction = even bigger Tory landslide at the next elections.

Oh happy days!

Edit - expect billions of pounds of bribes in the form of initiatives in the weeks leading up to this. Their dirty tricks department won't be able to do as much smearing as with Crewe so it's all Broon has left.

 

[fatbadger]

Don't doubt it. LibDems have been slowly increasing their vote in Mid Fife / Glenrothes (Fife is good Liberal territory), while the SNP has been slowly going down but is still a clear second. Glasgow East was a two-way fight; Glenrothes will see Labour safely through with a split opposition.

What will be interesting will be whether the Lib Dems or the SNP pick up the disgruntled Labour voters - that will give some good indications for the next general election. If the SNP pick up loads of votes and cement second place, then Labour really will start worrying about quite a few central belt seats (Livingston; Falkirk; Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East) in addition to the ones they've probably already given up on (eg Ochil). Conversely, if the Lib Dems do well in this seat and leapfrog the SNP, then a number of Labour or nominal Labour seats in the east - in Fife and in the Lothians - will look very vulnerable (eg the Lib Dems will be confident of holding their bye-election victory in Dunfermline and Fife West, and will target East Lothian and Gladstone's old seat of Midlothian in addition to the already good chances they have in Edinburgh South, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh North & Leith). Labour is more vulnerable to losing seats in the east to a LibDem surge than they are to losing seats to the SNP in the centre and west, but Scottish Labour would rather a Tory won a seat - any seat - than the SNP.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

The LibDems would take this seat if the SNP agreed not to field a candidate in this by-election on the understanding that the LibDems wouldn't stand against the SNP in a chosen Labour target seat at the next General Election. Now that would make it interesting for Scottish politics.

 

[fatbadger]

In the Scottish Parliamentary Elections in 2007, SNP got 45%, Labour 39% and all other parties were squeezed out.

Although I go along with quite a bit of your analysis, I do think you are missing two important points here, one relating to the special case of Scottish Parliamentary elections, and one relating to the micro-politics of Fife.

The SNP have always done better in Holyrood elections than Westminster elections. A good example would be the very strong showing in Cumbernauld and Kilsyth in 2003 but the painful (for them) clear beating they got in the same constituency at the subsequent Westminster elections. A 6% lead over Labour in the Holyrood election at Glenrothes is more than cancelled out by those swings. The reasons why are multifarious - many Scots see no point in voting SNP for Westminster, but see real governmental changes with SNP representation at Holyrood. Also, the SNP were the opposition at Holyrood, but many who would happily vote for the social democratic SNP as a vote against Labour's tendencies up here, would rather vote Labour where the other option (in terms of winning the general election as a whole) is Conservative.

As for Fife, it's long been good LibDem territory - not in Holyrood elections, where they are associated with the failed Labour administration, but in Westminster elections where they are seen as an effective non-Tory anti-Labour voice. Glenrothes is bordered to the north by Fife North East, Ming Campbell's very, very safe seat, and is a stone's throw (over the head of Brown!) from Dunfermline & Fife West, where they did so well in 2006.

From a Tory point of view, in which lost Labour seats are crucial, a LibDem surge is better. So you should pray for them to do well, and ignore the short-term disappointment of Labour holding Glenrothes against a split opposition!

 

[Buzzer]

True. And another thought occurred to me. Nick Clegg has to do well on the back of the anti-Labour feeling in the country. His future depends on it. He has apparently now targeted Labour marginals as the number one priority and needs to raise the Lib Dem profile now not in 2 years time. So far he has been awful. No better than Menzies and worse than Kennedy.

A bad result for the Lib Dems would be very bad in Scotland. They would then no longer be the de facto by-election protest party.

Hmmm....interesting times!