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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)









Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,432
More unrest in the Caucasus. This time it's another attack on police, following a first attack on police a week ago, which didn't seem to make the news.

It was in Karachaevo-Cherkessiya. I hadn't heard of it either, but Google says it's north of Georgia and west of Chechnya, so it's inside the Russian Federation.

 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,778
Wiltshire










Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,432
A new attack on the Ryazan oil refinery (it was attacked a few weeks ago):

Ryazan is only 115 miles to the south east of Moscow. With Ukraine attacking it again, it would seem the initial attack was only partially successful. It may have been repaired by the Russians or it may not. Regardless of this, the implication is that Russia has no answer to Ukrainian drone attacks, even when they have attacked the target before, and you would have expected defences to have been improved.

 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,778
Wiltshire
A new attack on the Ryazan oil refinery (it was attacked a few weeks ago):

Ryazan is only 115 miles to the south east of Moscow. With Ukraine attacking it again, it would seem the initial attack was only partially successful. It may have been repaired by the Russians or it may not. Regardless of this, the implication is that Russia has no answer to Ukrainian drone attacks, even when they have attacked the target before, and you would have expected defences to have been improved.


Yes, Ukraine is not the only one short of air defense systems.
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,432
I don't know what this is, but in view of the important dates in the Russian calendar coming up - Putin's inauguration as president on May 7 and victory day on May 9, I think it might be significant.

OK, I'm hoping it is significant.

 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,432
If a drone, then poor air defence 👍 as you suggested.
If just local incompetence...then great too!
If it's a Kremlin faction jostling for power, or a bitter Russian republic sensing a 'now or never' moment, even better!

(I've been watching too many Youtube videos).

P.S. Reports of explosions in Berdyansk and Mariupol and air sirens in Crimea. This could be a big week.
 


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
2,982
I saw the BBC report on Russia putting on public display some of the military equipment it had captured / destroyed from various different countries. Seems a bit of a desperate thing to do, feeling they need to continue to justify the war to their own people and demonstrate their success against the evil west who started the damn thing. Each piece of equipment seemed to carry the flag of the country of origin and I wonder whether those Russian citizens of a more questioning nature will wonder why so many countries have lined up against them in support of Ukraine - a potential PR own goal? Not a huge issue on its own but put it together with all the other stuff ( ongoing casualties, drone attacks deep into Russia etc) the average Russian must surely become increasingly cynical of the state rather than reassured by it.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,778
Wiltshire
I saw the BBC report on Russia putting on public display some of the military equipment it had captured / destroyed from various different countries. Seems a bit of a desperate thing to do, feeling they need to continue to justify the war to their own people and demonstrate their success against the evil west who started the damn thing. Each piece of equipment seemed to carry the flag of the country of origin and I wonder whether those Russian citizens of a more questioning nature will wonder why so many countries have lined up against them in support of Ukraine - a potential PR own goal? Not a huge issue on its own but put it together with all the other stuff ( ongoing casualties, drone attacks deep into Russia etc) the average Russian must surely become increasingly cynical of the state rather than reassured by it.
I'd hope you're right...but I suspect most of them are too entrenched in propaganda or fearful to be cynical of their state yet.
But yes, sticking country of origin flags on each piece of equipment does seem particularly childish and desperate!
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,432
I'd hope you're right...but I suspect most of them are too entrenched in propaganda or fearful to be cynical of their state yet.
But yes, sticking country of origin flags on each piece of equipment does seem particularly childish and desperate!

I think you are right. But, there is an important nuance to it. I believe you are only describing the ethnic Russians.

It's a vast country. 145 million people before the war, and 144 million now. 72% of the population of the Russian Federation are ethnic Russians. The remainder comprises over 190 ethnic communities.

Those thronging to see the captured western vehicles in Moscow will be Russians. Not Siberians, not central Asians and not Caucasians, who are already cynical of their state. This is where the discontent, the unrest and the insurrection could emerge, although it may manifest itself in Moscow, the centre of their oppression and exploitation.
 






Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
10,993
Crawley
What do you mean by this? The global population in 1950 was 2.5 billion, then in 1960 it was 3 billion. By 1970 it reached 3.7 billion and now it's at 8 billion.
Sorry to pick this up days late, I just saw it had no reply. Birth rate has been falling sknce the 60's, but population has been growing as life expectancy has improved.
The post Clamp was replying to is wrong though to suggest the Earth cannot sustain the human population at some point, because of population growth. It should level out at about 10.5 Billion around 2080, if a pandemic/war/flood/desert doesn't take a big chunk of us out. After 2080, population should fall slightly year on year.
 




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