[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

I’m cautiously optimistic that he’s had his day. When he went in first time he had the benefit of the doubt.

He couldn’t muster enough support for a second term, and he’s subsequently been moved outward onto a lot of his own/less mainstream platforms.

I don’t think anyone’s sitting on the fence about this guy now. They have their opinion. The more thoughtful Republicans will be considering what would be left post a second Trump term, and to be honest, he’s not got any saner or more honest in his time out of power.

Hoping that you are right

 

[raymondo]

He would, you would think, have to be at liberty to beat Biden.

and, yes, hopefully he'll be locked up...but for how long will his court cases drag on?

 

[Rugrat]

I’m cautiously optimistic that he’s had his day. When he went in first time he had the benefit of the doubt.

He couldn’t muster enough support for a second term, and he’s subsequently been moved outward onto a lot of his own/less mainstream platforms.

I don’t think anyone’s sitting on the fence about this guy now. They have their opinion. The more thoughtful Republicans will be considering what would be left post a second Trump term, and to be honest, he’s not got any saner or more honest in his time out of power.

Let's hope you're right, for the sake of all of us!

 

[chickens]

Hoping that you are right

There’s always a risk, I’m not sure that the US is exactly experiencing a golden age atm.

Nonetheless, like any first past the post system, your party members are a given, it’s the floating voters you need to attract.

People who didn’t vote for Trump before have seen no change of tack or policy. Similarly, of those who voted for him on his second attempt, some will have gone cold on him for a number of reasons, including from the Dominion lawsuit (particularly Tucker Carlson’s testimony) some of the testimony from his former legal team, and the lawsuits he’s currently embroiled in, not to mention how he’s spending his donor’s money.

To me, the main risk is apathy toward Biden. Incumbents often become less popular as time goes on, however I like to think that Trump, once experienced, becomes something to look back on in amazement rather than aspire to in the future.

Frankly, my (basic, only semi-informed) prediction is that both Trump and Biden garner less support among the general population than previously as the American population despair at their options, but the same outcome.

For every “full MAGA” there is a decent individual who’s always considered themselves more aligned toward the Republicans, but believes in rule of law, and is far from the conspiracy theorists of modern Republicanism. I’m not sure they’re willing to enable “Trump II” - but only time will tell.

The big fear has to be that Biden’s voters stay at home, while Trump’s don’t. However, I’m not sure there’s the same complacency in US politics that existed prior to experiencing a Trump presidency. It will be one to watch with interest. (and possibly horror)

 

[raymondo]

There’s always a risk, I’m not sure that the US is exactly experiencing a golden age atm.

Nonetheless, like any first past the post system, your party members are a given, it’s the floating voters you need to attract.

People who didn’t vote for Trump before have seen no change of tack or policy. Similarly, of those who voted for him on his second attempt, some will have gone cold on him for a number of reasons, including from the Dominion lawsuit (particularly Tucker Carlson’s testimony) some of the testimony from his former legal team, and the lawsuits he’s currently embroiled in, not to mention how he’s spending his donor’s money.

To me, the main risk is apathy toward Biden. Incumbents often become less popular as time goes on, however I like to think that Trump, once experienced, becomes something to look back on in amazement rather than aspire to in the future.

Frankly, my (basic, only semi-informed) prediction is that both Trump and Biden garner less support among the general population than previously as the American population despair at their options, but the same outcome.

For every “full MAGA” there is a decent individual who’s always considered themselves more aligned toward the Republicans, but believes in rule of law, and is far from the conspiracy theorists of modern Republicanism. I’m not sure they’re willing to enable “Trump II” - but only time will tell.

The big fear has to be that Biden’s voters stay at home, while Trump’s don’t. However, I’m not sure there’s the same complacency in US politics that existed prior to experiencing a Trump presidency. It will be one to watch with interest. (and possibly horror)

Yes, I agree with all of your reasoning, and I too hope the decent, law minded citizens will now see Trump for what he is (if they haven't already ) as the lawsuits continue to unfold.
My main concern is that Biden's health doesn't look robust and there seem to be concerns (I'm unsure of the details behind such concerns) about Kamala Harris as his VP and as running mate. If these concerns lead to voter uncertainty or apathy... well, that's my concern.

 

[raymondo]

 

[raymondo]

Here's the full article, if you have time. I am only part way through... it's very interesting.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm drawn to one reply to that.

'Cutting off crimea is the key. Once that is done the frontline is shortened by more than 50%.'

I'm not suggesting it is as simple as that, but it does make sense. Ukraine is fighting on a very long front. Halve it and Ukraine won't need as many troops.



I'm also wondering why Zaluzhny has done this. To lull Putin into a false sense of security and draw his fire? To encourage Putin to go back to the prisons for more troops?

 

[raymondo]

I'm drawn to one reply to that.

'Cutting off crimea is the key. Once that is done the frontline is shortened by more than 50%.'

I'm not suggesting it is as simple as that, but it does make sense. Ukraine is fighting on a very long front. Halve it and Ukraine won't need as many troops.



I'm also wondering why Zaluzhny has done this. To lull Putin into a false sense of security and draw his fire? To encourage Putin to go back to the prisons for more troops?

Hi @Eric the meek , your question is good and one I've thought about. Just wondering, did you read the whole document in my 12,990 post?
I think Zaluzhny has laid out in as much detail Ukraine's military position vs Russia; from the start of the invasion until now. And I think the purpose may be to say to the US, UK, EU, all allies:
- here's where we are
- if you want to help us win this war (before we run out of UKrainian troops)...then here's what we need to break this stalemate
- forget all the 'experts' in the media with their guesswork summary of the current state of play...this is how it is
- Putin can do what he wants with the info (Zaluzhny isn't bothered)....,
- ...it's 100% a message to the US, UK EU etc of how to help UKraine win the war.

I was surprised to read such detail, but I can't think of another purpose from him - I may have missed the point though (?)

 

[Eric the meek]

Hi @Eric the meek , your question is good and one I've thought about. Just wondering, did you read the whole document in my 12,990 post?
I think Zaluzhny has laid out in as much detail Ukraine's military position vs Russia; from the start of the invasion until now. And I think the purpose may be to say to the US, UK, EU, all allies:
- here's where we are
- if you want to help us win this war (before we run out of UKrainian troops)...then here's what we need to break this stalemate
- forget all the 'experts' in the media with their guesswork summary of the current state of play...this is how it is
- Putin can do what he wants with the info (Zaluzhny isn't bothered)....,
- ...it's 100% a message to the US, UK EU etc of how to help UKraine win the war.

I was surprised to read such detail, but I can't think of another purpose from him - I may have missed the point though (?)

Hi Raymondo,

First, you were right - I hadn't read the full transcript (oops), I was reading the replies. But I've read the full transcript now.

For some time I didn't understand what he meant by 'positional form', and then he explained it. Entrenched warfare like WW1, until he has no more troops. What wasn't spelled out was that in such a scenario, Russia could outlast Ukraine with a larger population, conscription, use of prisoners, the meat grinder, etc. So the message was, help us now, or we will lose the war.

Is he right to spell it out? Yes, absolutely.
Will it work? I don't know. US election, UK elections etc introduce uncertainty.

It looks like your summary is on the money. It is a direct warning to the allies, and a call for help from them.

If there is a hidden message in it to Putin, I haven't found it.

 

[raymondo]

Hi Raymondo,

First, you were right - I hadn't read the full transcript (oops), I was reading the replies. But I've read the full transcript now.

For some time I didn't understand what he meant by 'positional form', and then he explained it. Entrenched warfare like WW1, until he has no more troops. What wasn't spelled out was that in such a scenario, Russia could outlast Ukraine with a larger population, conscription, use of prisoners, the meat grinder, etc. So the message was, help us now, or we will lose the war.

Is he right to spell it out? Yes, absolutely.
Will it work? I don't know. US election, UK elections etc introduce uncertainty.

It looks like your summary is on the money. It is a direct warning to the allies, and a call for help from them.

If there is a hidden message in it to Putin, I haven't found it.

Yes, I agree... he's right to spell it out. It must feel like it's now or never for him to write this.

 

[fly high]

Yes, I agree... he's right to spell it out. It must feel like it's now or never for him to write this.

He must get so frustrated, he's asked for so much to help them win but it has been drip fed to them. If they'd been given tanks, long range rockets and aircraft sooner they would be so much closer to victory

 

[Eric the meek]

To digress for a moment, please be aware of the following if you are subscribed to any YouTube channels covering the Russia - Ukraine war:

'...please check that you are still subscribed. As many YouTubers who are covering the war in Ukraine have been reporting losing subscribers in a way that's a little unexplained, perhaps some sort of algorithmic change or process' - Jonathan Fink.

00:53 onwards.

 

[Weststander]

Our Ukrainian family member has been badly affected by the fireworks here tonight. Evoking memories on Kyiv being indiscriminately attacked.

Putin’s a cnt.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Our Ukrainian family member has been badly affected by the fireworks here tonight. Evoking memories on Kyiv being indiscriminately attacked.

Putin’s a cnt.

That’s sad. Would be nice to take him to a bonfire society display where Putin is the guy / effigy

 

[raymondo]

Article from the ISW (Institute for the Study of War):​

​

Putin 'to face tough choice' to protect survival of his regime​

As we have previously discussed here, Russia has sought to strike a diplomatic balance following the outbreak of hostilities involving Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Vladimir Putin's regime has maintained strong relations with Israel - which has presented itself as a mediating presence following the invasion of Ukraine - although Moscow has also hosted a delegation from Hamas.
Perhaps even more significantly, Russia has counted on Iran as one of its most important allies since it triggered the war on Ukraine, with Tehran a key supplier of weapons and equipment for Moscow in the face of sanctions on both countries from the West.
And Kimberly Kagan, president for the Institute for the Study of War thinktank, suggested that Mr Putin's attempts to retain such strong links with both Israel and Iran were now doomed to failure.
"The Israeli government has always hoped that Russia would provide some check on Iranian behaviour in Syria," she told PBS.
"We at ISW have assessed that that check has not been effective.
"Be that as it may, it has been Israeli policy to tolerate Russia's presence inside of Syria.
"I don't think that this myth is going to last very long.
"I think Putin is going to have to make a choice soon between whether he will maintain his relationship with Iran or whether he will maintain his relationship with Israel.
"Putin needs Iran in order to sustain his war in Ukraine, so Putin is going to end up facing a tough choice.
"I think he's going to try to delay that choice for as long as he can, but since his war in Ukraine is so important to him and the survival of his regime, he is going to have to optimise his alliance relationship to be able to continue to sustain that war.
"I think the Israelis are going to find that Putin is not a helpful or a friendly actor."
She concluded that the supply of Iranian weapons meant "Putin will end up choosing Iran".

 

[Sirnormangall]

I agree - if Putin has to choose it will be Iran over Israel. The latter has close ties with the US, so I’d have thought that would also influence his decision. A friend of mine was recently in Georgia and commented on the endless trail of trucks going south to north over the border into Russia - wonder how much of it originated in Iran.

 

[crookie]

First Ukrainian armoured vehicle spotted on the left bank of the Dnipro I saw earlier. Sorry was on my desktop so can't share. Looks like they establishing their bridgehead on that side of the river. Be massive if they could move numbers over and heavy equipment as not far to Crimea from there, and doubt there are anything like the minefields and defensive structures in the Tokmak region

 

[Sirnormangall]

First Ukrainian armoured vehicle spotted on the left bank of the Dnipro I saw earlier. Sorry was on my desktop so can't share. Looks like they establishing their bridgehead on that side of the river. Be massive if they could move numbers over and heavy equipment as not far to Crimea from there, and doubt there are anything like the minefields and defensive structures in the Tokmak region

Any developments on this? Has it been verified?

 

[Eric the meek]

Any developments on this? Has it been verified?

Take a look at this:

Ukrainian forces deploy armoured vehicles to left-bank Kherson Oblast – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based on analysed Russian information, has reported that the Ukrainian Defence Forces have deployed a limited number of armoured vehicles to the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast.

www.pravda.com.ua

Not sure if it was this (or the underlying report from ISW) that @crookie spotted?