[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

Im confused about the number of war dead. BBC says 50k Russians but several other sources say nearer 500,000, a vast difference. where are the real numbers?

It will be nearer 500k, BBC number is actually and formally verified dead.

It won't include missing presumed dead there's many more or those thrown into mobile crematoria or rotting where they lay.

 

[Eric the meek]

Im confused about the number of war dead. BBC says 50k Russians but several other sources say nearer 500,000, a vast difference. where are the real numbers?

As well as what we know, or suspect, that numbers or Russian dead are much greater than the 50k confirmed by the BBC, consider the following anecdotal evidence, some of which is in the public domain.

1. Convicts, Indians, Nepalis, Africans, being coerced into signing up to fight and die.
2. Siberians from the ethnic republics of the RF being subject to conscription rates far in excess of ethnic Russians. One report quoted a magnitude of 12 times greater.
3. Geopolitical speaker and lecturer Peter Zeihan says Russia is quietly, unofficially, conscripting between 45,000 and 60,000 per month.
4. When news from the far-flung corners of the RF occasionally makes it out to the west, it is jaw-dropping. One report detailed a whole village being hollowed out of men of combat age.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

Im confused about the number of war dead. BBC says 50k Russians but several other sources say nearer 500,000, a vast difference. where are the real numbers?

Ukraine's armed forces estimate that the Russian military has suffered 451,730 casualties in the war, including deaths and injuries, while the United States and British intelligence both say that Russian casualties top 300,000. Kyiv has claimed that more than 180,000 Russian servicemen have been killed.

 

[raymondo]

Tragic that so many young men being killed for the deluded fascist dreams of a crazy old ex KGB killer

Yes indeed. My sentiment about Russian deaths in the coming year is because the only alternative I see, is that either Ukraine loses in a year (if allied support dries up) or is forced by Trump (please no) into ceding land and some spurious 'peace agreement '.
I know Ukraine might well refuse a Trump deal, but then Trump is quite capable to tell Europe to also drop all support, or that's the end of NATO. If that happens I hope Europe tells the US to eff off...but in reality would we be ready to. I doubt it?

I'm getting ahead of things, so here's hoping for resumption of timely allied support, a minor miracle in the US Congress and another minor miracle in US elections.

 

[raymondo]

 

[Eric the meek]

I know I'm prone to wishful thinking, but is it conceivable that the Ukraine drone industry could actually win the war for Ukraine?

 

[raymondo]

I know I'm prone to wishful thinking, but is it conceivable that the Ukraine drone industry could actually win the war for Ukraine?

Certainly feels as if their drone use has contained Russia and reversed the momentum to a degree. Numerous successes (and embarrassing ones) against refineries, Black Sea Fleet, even front line tactics.

If they can take out more Russian air defense on the front lines then the situation could turn more favourably toward Ukraine...as Russia still has the upper hand there with their numerical advantage (meat grinder plus shells).

 

[Zeberdi]

Well in that case I wait to be utterly surprised when further aid for Ukraine is actually agreed in the US.


The proof will be in what actually happens - and on the evidence of the speaker trying every trick in the book so far to derail aid - then I don't even have a 1% hope it will actually happen. I wait to be gobsmacked.

As I said above, Johnson is trying to push this through - Biden has come out today with an additional push to get this through. The Democrat controlled Senate has already agreed a $60b aid package - it’s a minority of Republicans in the House holding everyone else to ransom.

I suggested on the Trump thread, that if Trump gets elected, the priority will be on border control and reforming NATO funding or even pulling out - or worst, setting himself up as the ‘Russian-Ukraine’ Great White Hope and try and implement a peace plan that forces Ukraine to concede occupied territory to Russia.

It caused a bit of a rumpus on that thread because it sounded as if I was blaming Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on Trump and obviously everyone was posting that he wasn’t President either time Putin invaded Ukraine - but I truly think, Putin has been emboldened over the years by Trump’s implicit support for him - prior to the 2016 Election, he promised Putin that he would ‘look into formerly recognising Crimea as part of Russia‘ which was widely reported at the time - imo that was in possibly in exchange for colluding with Putin to get Trump elected in 2016 (no proof!) but Putin’s interference in the 2016 Election shouldn’t be taken out of context of his intended long term plans to invade Ukraine and seeing Trump as a private, if not a public ally in that. Trump also admitted to knowing in advance about Putin’s intention to make a broader incursion into Ukraine - they used to talk about it apparently and let’s not forget, Putin did not withdraw from Ukraine/Crimea the whole time Trump was in office. Putin interfered in both the 2016 election and the 2020 election to undermine Clinton and Biden respectively because he saw Trump as the soft option on Ukraine - Trump also blackmailed Ukraine in the Biden dirt for Arms affair (that later became an article of impeachment.) while his campaign manager had been busy destabilising Ukraine for a decade before Trump brought him in to his campaign team in 2016.

The US isn’t Ukraine‘s enemy, it is the swamp of Congress that is failing Ukraine - even Trump himself is not against Ukraine per se he’s just a Putin acolyte and he sees the world’s dictators as potential allies in his obsessive and very dangerous quest for power. It is his personal weaknesses, including his deluded belief that he alone ‘deserves’ to be in the WH, his historical sexual proclivities and business dealings with Russia (possibly money laundering Russian funds to the West through the Deutsche Bank) that has created a weakness in America’s relationship with Russia - a relationship which has been easily exploited by a dictator who knows that flattery is the best way to control a narcissist.

Hopefully Johnson can get the aid bill on to the floor of the House this week and the Senate Aid Bill also gets approved

 

[lasvegan]

It seems like everyone on here hates the USA, until they need money.

 

[lasvegan]

It seems like everyone on here hates the USA, until they need money.

Yes, sad indeed…

 

[Bold Seagull]

It seems like everyone on here hates the USA, until they need money.

Hates Trump and his Russian supporting acolytes you mean?

 

[sparkie]

It seems like everyone on here hates the USA, until they need money.

In real life my experience is that most people love the USA. This seems to be reflected on here.

 

[sparkie]

As I said above, Johnson is trying to push this through - Biden has come out today with an additional push to get this through. The Democrat controlled Senate has already agreed a $60b aid package - it’s a minority of Republicans in the House holding everyone else to ransom.

I suggested on the Trump thread, that if Trump gets elected, the priority will be on border control and reforming NATO funding or even pulling out - or worst, setting himself up as the ‘Russian-Ukraine’ Great White Hope and try and implement a peace plan that forces Ukraine to concede occupied territory to Russia.

It caused a bit of a rumpus on that thread because it sounded as if I was blaming Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on Trump and obviously everyone was posting that he wasn’t President either time Putin invaded Ukraine - but I truly think, Putin has been emboldened over the years by Trump’s implicit support for him - prior to the 2016 Election, he promised Putin that he would ‘look into formerly recognising Crimea as part of Russia‘ which was widely reported at the time - imo that was in possibly in exchange for colluding with Putin to get Trump elected in 2016 (no proof!) but Putin’s interference in the 2016 Election shouldn’t be taken out of context of his intended long term plans to invade Ukraine and seeing Trump as a private, if not a public ally in that. Trump also admitted to knowing in advance about Putin’s intention to make a broader incursion into Ukraine - they used to talk about it apparently and let’s not forget, Putin did not withdraw from Ukraine/Crimea the whole time Trump was in office. Putin interfered in both the 2016 election and the 2020 election to undermine Clinton and Biden respectively because he saw Trump as the soft option on Ukraine - Trump also blackmailed Ukraine in the Biden dirt for Arms affair (that later became an article of impeachment.) while his campaign manager had been busy destabilising Ukraine for a decade before Trump brought him in to his campaign team in 2016.

The US isn’t Ukraine‘s enemy, it is the swamp of Congress that is failing Ukraine - even Trump himself is not against Ukraine per se he’s just a Putin acolyte and he sees the world’s dictators as potential allies in his obsessive and very dangerous quest for power. It is his personal weaknesses, including his deluded belief that he alone ‘deserves’ to be in the WH, his historical sexual proclivities and business dealings with Russia (possibly money laundering Russian funds to the West through the Deutsche Bank) that has created a weakness in America’s relationship with Russia - a relationship which has been easily exploited by a dictator who knows that flattery is the best way to control a narcissist.

Hopefully Johnson can get the aid bill on to the floor of the House this week and the Senate Aid Bill also gets approved

I've read somewhere (credible) that Trump needs 2/3rds Senate agreement to pull out of NATO - which is a big ask.

 

[peterward]

It seems like everyone on here hates the USA, until they need money.

Why write such nonsense.

America is the greatest nation on earth and I say that as a proud Englishman.

It is the leader of free world and of democracy.

Trump however doesn't like America, or should I say, he doesn't care about America, its standing, its global position or its longstanding allies.

He only cares about himself and he's ready to throw it all under the bus just to please the fascist aggressor in Moscow.

His only foreign policy goals is "what can I get out of this"

 

[peterward]

Dont believe it until its done, it could very well be a trap.

Now a second GOP house member has joined MTG in filing a motion to vacate speaker, Johnson will now be relying on Dem votes, which reports suggest will happen if it advances Ukraine aid.

JD Vance another pro putin Trump puppet who days ago, said Ukraine couldnt win in NYT, today is railing against the REPO act and saying they shouldnt confiscate Russian assets, so Trump can use them as leverage in any future negotiations....... theyre so blatantly compromised by the the Russians, my only surprise was he wasnt wearing a Russia lapel pin.

As for the Ukraine aid, now Johnson is trying to split original supplemental into 4 seperate bills, whose details will be fully known by the Dems today, though mooted to be broadly similar to Senate deal. It was safer as a combined bill

But here's some of the risks, there's a procedure on the rules of a vote, Johnson is trying to make it a simpe majority, MTG and the pro Russian "House freedom caucus" are trying to block that and make it 2/3

Then theres ability for amendments, and you bet your bottom dollar the pro Russians in congress will try and add mutiple ridiculous ammendments that they know are non starters.

If it does get to a simple floor vote, on a majority, where it will likely pass, then theres the next big risks in Senate.

The filibuster, where some pro Russians in senate of which there a few, may try and drag it out with time wasting discussions/procedural arguments to run out the clock on passing it, effectively killing it.

If they make a single ammendment to what may was passed in congress before getting to Senate, then it has to go back to Congress..... and guess what?

Johnson can refuse to put it back on the floor for a vote.

Johnson can if he chooses, and if all the 4 seperate bills pass, combine all 4 into 1 bill for the senate rather than 4, Id suggest the Dems insist on that as a minimum for supporting him in his unseating challenge, that would at least block the filibuster if re combined with Israel when it hits senate.

I agree with you though Eric, that while hopeful, and there is still the "discharge petition number 9" in the back pocket requiring only 20 odd more signatories, if they try any such shenanighans, there will 100% be attempts by the Kremlin wing of the GOP to block this somehow, because Donald says so.

Yep, and it's the openly Pro Russian dipstick and total embarrassment Marjorie Taylor Greene, who even fox news are now slagging off....
You have to read these part propaganda and part outright stupid ammendments!

 

[Eric the meek]

'Strong wind warning. Aircraft unable to return to home automatically. Lower altitude immediately and return to home manually'.

This is the on-screen message as another drone being filmed is guided into a gap above a tank and then detonated. Notice that the message is in English.

Democrats should send the clip to Marjorie Taylor Greene, just to annoy her.

 

[Eric the meek]

A further update on the drone front.

Ukraine Aims Its Explosive Sport Plane Drones At Russia’s Only 1,900-Mile Strategic Radar

The second target for Ukraine’s explosives-laden robotic sports plane is a big one: a 1,900-mile-range over-the-horizon radar in the Russian town of Kovylkino.

www.forbes.com

Edit: for orientation, Kovylkino is about 600 km south east of Moscow.

 

[raymondo]

Yep, and it's the openly Pro Russian dipstick and total embarrassment Marjorie Taylor Greene, who even fox news are now slagging off....
You have to read these part propaganda and part outright stupid ammendments!

When Trump talks about draining the swamp, to my mind MTG and her ilk should be first on the list.
She's another big time bully, just like Trump.
Here's hoping the Democrats come out in force to support Johnson's current efforts (confusing though some of the details remain to me).

 

[peterward]

A further update on the drone front.

Ukraine Aims Its Explosive Sport Plane Drones At Russia’s Only 1,900-Mile Strategic Radar

The second target for Ukraine’s explosives-laden robotic sports plane is a big one: a 1,900-mile-range over-the-horizon radar in the Russian town of Kovylkino.

www.forbes.com

Edit: for orientation, Kovylkino is about 600 km south east of Moscow.

Who knew 2 years ago, youd become the NSC resident drone oracle!

I love these updates ETM

 

[amexer]

It seems like everyone on here hates the USA, until they need money.

Not sure if true but read that USA contribute to NATO more than other nations put together